Reconstructing the impact of COVID-19 on the immunity gap and transmission of respiratory syncytial virus in Lombardy, ItalyResearch in context
Summary: Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of hospitalisation and mortality in young children globally. The social distancing measures implemented against COVID-19 in Lombardy (Italy) disrupted the typically seasonal RSV circulation during 2019–2021 and caused substan...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-09-01
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| Series: | EBioMedicine |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352396423003109 |
| _version_ | 1797745954456076288 |
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| author | Hadrian Jules Ang Francesco Menegale Giuseppe Preziosi Elena Pariani Maurizio Migliari Laura Pellegrinelli Giuseppe Maria Sechi Sabrina Buoro Stefano Merler Danilo Cereda Marcello Tirani Piero Poletti Ilaria Dorigatti |
| author_facet | Hadrian Jules Ang Francesco Menegale Giuseppe Preziosi Elena Pariani Maurizio Migliari Laura Pellegrinelli Giuseppe Maria Sechi Sabrina Buoro Stefano Merler Danilo Cereda Marcello Tirani Piero Poletti Ilaria Dorigatti |
| author_sort | Hadrian Jules Ang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Summary: Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of hospitalisation and mortality in young children globally. The social distancing measures implemented against COVID-19 in Lombardy (Italy) disrupted the typically seasonal RSV circulation during 2019–2021 and caused substantially more hospitalisations during 2021–2022. The primary aim of this study is to quantify the immunity gap-defined as the increased proportion of the population naïve to RSV infection following the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in Lombardy, which has been hypothesised to be a potential cause of the increased RSV burden in 2021–2022. Methods: We developed a catalytic model to reconstruct changes in the age-dependent susceptibility profile of the Lombardy population throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The model is calibrated to routinely collected hospitalisation, syndromic, and virological surveillance data and tested for alternative assumptions on age-dependencies in the risk of RSV infection throughout the pandemic. Findings: We estimate that the proportion of the Lombardy population naïve to RSV infection increased by 60.8% (95% CrI: 55.2–65.4%) during the COVID-19 pandemic: from 1.4% (95% CrI: 1.3–1.6%) in 2018–2019 to 2.3% (95% CrI: 2.2–2.5%) before the 2021–2022 season, corresponding to an immunity gap of 0.87% (95% CrI: 0.87–0.88%). We found evidence of heterogeneity in RSV transmission by age, suggesting that the COVID-19 restrictions had variable impact on the contact patterns and risk of RSV infection across ages. Interpretation: We estimate a substantial increase in the population-level susceptibility to RSV in Lombardy during 2019–2021, which contributed to an increase in primary RSV infections in 2021–2022. Funding: UK Medical Research Council (MRC), UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), EDCTP2 programme, European Union, Wellcome Trust, Royal Society, EU-MUR PNRR INF-ACT. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:30:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2fc2f454735441b880fa5c6aeb139a52 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2352-3964 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:30:17Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | EBioMedicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-2fc2f454735441b880fa5c6aeb139a522023-08-10T04:34:37ZengElsevierEBioMedicine2352-39642023-09-0195104745Reconstructing the impact of COVID-19 on the immunity gap and transmission of respiratory syncytial virus in Lombardy, ItalyResearch in contextHadrian Jules Ang0Francesco Menegale1Giuseppe Preziosi2Elena Pariani3Maurizio Migliari4Laura Pellegrinelli5Giuseppe Maria Sechi6Sabrina Buoro7Stefano Merler8Danilo Cereda9Marcello Tirani10Piero Poletti11Ilaria Dorigatti12Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United KingdomCenter for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy; Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento, ItalyRegional Agency for Innovation and Procurement, Milano, ItalyDepartment of Biomedical Sciences for Health, University of Milan, Milan, ItalyAgenzia Regionale Emergenza Urgenza, Milan, ItalyDepartment of Biomedical Sciences for Health, University of Milan, Milan, ItalyAgenzia Regionale Emergenza Urgenza, Milan, ItalyLombardy Region Welfare General Directorate, Milano, ItalyCenter for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, ItalyLombardy Region Welfare General Directorate, Milano, ItalyLombardy Region Welfare General Directorate, Milano, Italy; Health Protection Agency of the Metropolitan Area of Milan, Milano, ItalyCenter for Health Emergencies, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy; Corresponding author. Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Via Sommarive 18, Povo, Trento 38123, Italy.Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Corresponding author. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Medical School Building, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom.Summary: Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of hospitalisation and mortality in young children globally. The social distancing measures implemented against COVID-19 in Lombardy (Italy) disrupted the typically seasonal RSV circulation during 2019–2021 and caused substantially more hospitalisations during 2021–2022. The primary aim of this study is to quantify the immunity gap-defined as the increased proportion of the population naïve to RSV infection following the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in Lombardy, which has been hypothesised to be a potential cause of the increased RSV burden in 2021–2022. Methods: We developed a catalytic model to reconstruct changes in the age-dependent susceptibility profile of the Lombardy population throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The model is calibrated to routinely collected hospitalisation, syndromic, and virological surveillance data and tested for alternative assumptions on age-dependencies in the risk of RSV infection throughout the pandemic. Findings: We estimate that the proportion of the Lombardy population naïve to RSV infection increased by 60.8% (95% CrI: 55.2–65.4%) during the COVID-19 pandemic: from 1.4% (95% CrI: 1.3–1.6%) in 2018–2019 to 2.3% (95% CrI: 2.2–2.5%) before the 2021–2022 season, corresponding to an immunity gap of 0.87% (95% CrI: 0.87–0.88%). We found evidence of heterogeneity in RSV transmission by age, suggesting that the COVID-19 restrictions had variable impact on the contact patterns and risk of RSV infection across ages. Interpretation: We estimate a substantial increase in the population-level susceptibility to RSV in Lombardy during 2019–2021, which contributed to an increase in primary RSV infections in 2021–2022. Funding: UK Medical Research Council (MRC), UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), EDCTP2 programme, European Union, Wellcome Trust, Royal Society, EU-MUR PNRR INF-ACT.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352396423003109RSVMathematical modellingCatalytic modelsImmunity gapCOVID-19 restrictions |
| spellingShingle | Hadrian Jules Ang Francesco Menegale Giuseppe Preziosi Elena Pariani Maurizio Migliari Laura Pellegrinelli Giuseppe Maria Sechi Sabrina Buoro Stefano Merler Danilo Cereda Marcello Tirani Piero Poletti Ilaria Dorigatti Reconstructing the impact of COVID-19 on the immunity gap and transmission of respiratory syncytial virus in Lombardy, ItalyResearch in context EBioMedicine RSV Mathematical modelling Catalytic models Immunity gap COVID-19 restrictions |
| title | Reconstructing the impact of COVID-19 on the immunity gap and transmission of respiratory syncytial virus in Lombardy, ItalyResearch in context |
| title_full | Reconstructing the impact of COVID-19 on the immunity gap and transmission of respiratory syncytial virus in Lombardy, ItalyResearch in context |
| title_fullStr | Reconstructing the impact of COVID-19 on the immunity gap and transmission of respiratory syncytial virus in Lombardy, ItalyResearch in context |
| title_full_unstemmed | Reconstructing the impact of COVID-19 on the immunity gap and transmission of respiratory syncytial virus in Lombardy, ItalyResearch in context |
| title_short | Reconstructing the impact of COVID-19 on the immunity gap and transmission of respiratory syncytial virus in Lombardy, ItalyResearch in context |
| title_sort | reconstructing the impact of covid 19 on the immunity gap and transmission of respiratory syncytial virus in lombardy italyresearch in context |
| topic | RSV Mathematical modelling Catalytic models Immunity gap COVID-19 restrictions |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352396423003109 |
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