The slowing pace of life expectancy gains since 1950
Abstract Background New technological breakthroughs in biomedicine should have made it easier for countries to improve life expectancy at birth (LEB). This paper measures the pace of improvement in the decadal gains of LEB, for the last 60-years adjusting for each country’s starting point of LEB. Me...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2018-01-01
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| Series: | BMC Public Health |
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| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-018-5058-9 |
| _version_ | 1819040562226921472 |
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| author | Carolina Cardona David Bishai |
| author_facet | Carolina Cardona David Bishai |
| author_sort | Carolina Cardona |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background New technological breakthroughs in biomedicine should have made it easier for countries to improve life expectancy at birth (LEB). This paper measures the pace of improvement in the decadal gains of LEB, for the last 60-years adjusting for each country’s starting point of LEB. Methods LEB increases over the next 10-years for 139 countries between 1950 and 2009 were regressed on LEB, GDP, total fertility rate, population density, CO2 emissions, and HIV prevalence using country-specific fixed effects and time-dummies. Analysis grouped countries into one-of-four strata: LEB < 51, 51 ≤ LEB < 61, 61 ≤ LEB < 71, and LEB ≥ 71. Results The rate of increase of LEB has fallen consistently since 1950 across all strata. Results hold in unadjusted analysis and in the regression-adjusted analysis. LEB decadal gains fell from 4.80 (IQR: 2.98–6.20) years in the 1950s to 2.39 (IQR:1.80–2.80) years in the 2000s for the healthiest countries (LEB ≥ 71). For countries with the lowest LEB (LEB < 51), decadal gains fell from 7.38 (IQR:4.83–9.25) years in the 1950s to negative 6.82 (IQR: -12.95--1.05) years in the 2000s. Multivariate analysis controlling for HIV prevalence, GDP, and other covariates shows a negative effect of time on LEB decadal gains among all strata. Conclusions Contrary to the expectation that advances in health technology and spending would hasten improvements in LEB, we found that the pace-of-growth of LEB has slowed around the world. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T09:11:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2fdd108d68d84cadad845fcdf83079bf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T09:11:04Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-2fdd108d68d84cadad845fcdf83079bf2022-12-21T19:09:14ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582018-01-011811710.1186/s12889-018-5058-9The slowing pace of life expectancy gains since 1950Carolina Cardona0David Bishai1Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public HealthDepartment of Population, Family and Reproductive Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public HealthAbstract Background New technological breakthroughs in biomedicine should have made it easier for countries to improve life expectancy at birth (LEB). This paper measures the pace of improvement in the decadal gains of LEB, for the last 60-years adjusting for each country’s starting point of LEB. Methods LEB increases over the next 10-years for 139 countries between 1950 and 2009 were regressed on LEB, GDP, total fertility rate, population density, CO2 emissions, and HIV prevalence using country-specific fixed effects and time-dummies. Analysis grouped countries into one-of-four strata: LEB < 51, 51 ≤ LEB < 61, 61 ≤ LEB < 71, and LEB ≥ 71. Results The rate of increase of LEB has fallen consistently since 1950 across all strata. Results hold in unadjusted analysis and in the regression-adjusted analysis. LEB decadal gains fell from 4.80 (IQR: 2.98–6.20) years in the 1950s to 2.39 (IQR:1.80–2.80) years in the 2000s for the healthiest countries (LEB ≥ 71). For countries with the lowest LEB (LEB < 51), decadal gains fell from 7.38 (IQR:4.83–9.25) years in the 1950s to negative 6.82 (IQR: -12.95--1.05) years in the 2000s. Multivariate analysis controlling for HIV prevalence, GDP, and other covariates shows a negative effect of time on LEB decadal gains among all strata. Conclusions Contrary to the expectation that advances in health technology and spending would hasten improvements in LEB, we found that the pace-of-growth of LEB has slowed around the world.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-018-5058-9Life expectancy at birthMortality reductionInternational demographic trendsCross country regression |
| spellingShingle | Carolina Cardona David Bishai The slowing pace of life expectancy gains since 1950 BMC Public Health Life expectancy at birth Mortality reduction International demographic trends Cross country regression |
| title | The slowing pace of life expectancy gains since 1950 |
| title_full | The slowing pace of life expectancy gains since 1950 |
| title_fullStr | The slowing pace of life expectancy gains since 1950 |
| title_full_unstemmed | The slowing pace of life expectancy gains since 1950 |
| title_short | The slowing pace of life expectancy gains since 1950 |
| title_sort | slowing pace of life expectancy gains since 1950 |
| topic | Life expectancy at birth Mortality reduction International demographic trends Cross country regression |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-018-5058-9 |
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