Shifted relationship between the Pacific decadal oscillation and western North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis since the 1990s
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) are prominent climate modes in the North Pacific with well-established impacts on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin. While previous research has primarily focused on the roles of the PDO and...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad1640 |
| _version_ | 1797360641314390016 |
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| author | Cong Zhou Liguang Wu Chao Wang Jian Cao |
| author_facet | Cong Zhou Liguang Wu Chao Wang Jian Cao |
| author_sort | Cong Zhou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) are prominent climate modes in the North Pacific with well-established impacts on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin. While previous research has primarily focused on the roles of the PDO and PMM in regulating TC genesis through the modification of large-scale environmental factors, this study investigates the evolving influence of the PDO on WNP TC genesis since the 1950s. Remarkably, our analysis reveals a shift in the PDO-TC genesis relationship, transitioning from a significant negative correlation to a significant positive correlation since the 1990s. This shift is attributed to variations in the specific large-scale factors through which the PDO affects TC genesis. Furthermore, this study suggests that these changes appear to be linked to the PMM strengthening on the interdecadal timescale in recent decades. The linkage of the PMM strengthening to the PDO-related atmospheric circulation is further confirmed by the results of a 500 year pre-industrial numerical experiment, suggesting that the PMM strengthening may result from natural internal variability. The results underscore the non-stationary relationship between PDO and WNP TC genesis, with the PMM intensity probably influencing their relationship. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T15:41:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-300183f6061a4493adbde2512609c329 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T15:41:27Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-300183f6061a4493adbde2512609c3292024-01-09T14:42:54ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262024-01-0119101407110.1088/1748-9326/ad1640Shifted relationship between the Pacific decadal oscillation and western North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis since the 1990sCong Zhou0https://orcid.org/0009-0006-6832-5380Liguang Wu1Chao Wang2Jian Cao3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9105-9400Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University , Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration , Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center , Shanghai, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University , Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; CMA-FDU Joint Laboratory of Marine Meteorology , Shanghai 200438, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology , Nanjing, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology , Nanjing, People’s Republic of ChinaThe Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) are prominent climate modes in the North Pacific with well-established impacts on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin. While previous research has primarily focused on the roles of the PDO and PMM in regulating TC genesis through the modification of large-scale environmental factors, this study investigates the evolving influence of the PDO on WNP TC genesis since the 1950s. Remarkably, our analysis reveals a shift in the PDO-TC genesis relationship, transitioning from a significant negative correlation to a significant positive correlation since the 1990s. This shift is attributed to variations in the specific large-scale factors through which the PDO affects TC genesis. Furthermore, this study suggests that these changes appear to be linked to the PMM strengthening on the interdecadal timescale in recent decades. The linkage of the PMM strengthening to the PDO-related atmospheric circulation is further confirmed by the results of a 500 year pre-industrial numerical experiment, suggesting that the PMM strengthening may result from natural internal variability. The results underscore the non-stationary relationship between PDO and WNP TC genesis, with the PMM intensity probably influencing their relationship.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad1640tropical cyclonetropical cyclogenesisPacific Decadal Oscillationdecadal variabilityclimate changePacific Meridional Mode |
| spellingShingle | Cong Zhou Liguang Wu Chao Wang Jian Cao Shifted relationship between the Pacific decadal oscillation and western North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis since the 1990s Environmental Research Letters tropical cyclone tropical cyclogenesis Pacific Decadal Oscillation decadal variability climate change Pacific Meridional Mode |
| title | Shifted relationship between the Pacific decadal oscillation and western North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis since the 1990s |
| title_full | Shifted relationship between the Pacific decadal oscillation and western North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis since the 1990s |
| title_fullStr | Shifted relationship between the Pacific decadal oscillation and western North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis since the 1990s |
| title_full_unstemmed | Shifted relationship between the Pacific decadal oscillation and western North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis since the 1990s |
| title_short | Shifted relationship between the Pacific decadal oscillation and western North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis since the 1990s |
| title_sort | shifted relationship between the pacific decadal oscillation and western north pacific tropical cyclogenesis since the 1990s |
| topic | tropical cyclone tropical cyclogenesis Pacific Decadal Oscillation decadal variability climate change Pacific Meridional Mode |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad1640 |
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