Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Exposure Risk Assessment in Australian Commercial Chicken Farms
This study investigated the pathways of exposure to low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus among Australian commercial chicken farms and estimated the likelihood of this exposure occurring using scenario trees and a stochastic modeling approach following the World Organization for Animal Health...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2018-04-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Veterinary Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fvets.2018.00068/full |
| _version_ | 1818333914474741760 |
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| author | Angela Bullanday Scott Jenny-Ann Toribio Mini Singh Peter Groves Belinda Barnes Kathryn Glass Barbara Moloney Amanda Black Marta Hernandez-Jover Marta Hernandez-Jover |
| author_facet | Angela Bullanday Scott Jenny-Ann Toribio Mini Singh Peter Groves Belinda Barnes Kathryn Glass Barbara Moloney Amanda Black Marta Hernandez-Jover Marta Hernandez-Jover |
| author_sort | Angela Bullanday Scott |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study investigated the pathways of exposure to low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus among Australian commercial chicken farms and estimated the likelihood of this exposure occurring using scenario trees and a stochastic modeling approach following the World Organization for Animal Health methodology for risk assessment. Input values for the models were sourced from scientific literature and an on-farm survey conducted during 2015 and 2016 among Australian commercial chicken farms located in New South Wales and Queensland. Outputs from the models revealed that the probability of a first LPAI virus exposure to a chicken in an Australian commercial chicken farms from one wild bird at any point in time is extremely low. A comparative assessment revealed that across the five farm types (non-free-range meat chicken, free-range meat chicken, cage layer, barn layer, and free range layer farms), free-range layer farms had the highest probability of exposure (7.5 × 10−4; 5% and 95%, 5.7 × 10−4—0.001). The results indicate that the presence of a large number of wild birds on farm is required for exposure to occur across all farm types. The median probability of direct exposure was highest in free-range farm types (5.6 × 10−4 and 1.6 × 10−4 for free-range layer and free-range meat chicken farms, respectively) and indirect exposure was highest in non-free-range farm types (2.7 × 10−4, 2.0 × 10−4, and 1.9 × 10−4 for non-free-range meat chicken, cage layer, and barn layer farms, respectively). The probability of exposure was found to be lowest in summer for all farm types. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the proportion of waterfowl among wild birds on the farm, the presence of waterfowl in the range and feed storage areas, and the prevalence of LPAI in wild birds are the most influential parameters for the probability of Australian commercial chicken farms being exposed to avian influenza (AI) virus. These results highlight the importance of ensuring good biosecurity on farms to minimize the risk of exposure to AI virus and the importance of continuous surveillance of LPAI prevalence including subtypes in wild bird populations. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T13:59:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-30058f1155484f8c89fe9d0724db93a7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2297-1769 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T13:59:12Z |
| publishDate | 2018-04-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Veterinary Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-30058f1155484f8c89fe9d0724db93a72022-12-21T23:42:48ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Veterinary Science2297-17692018-04-01510.3389/fvets.2018.00068334410Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Exposure Risk Assessment in Australian Commercial Chicken FarmsAngela Bullanday Scott0Jenny-Ann Toribio1Mini Singh2Peter Groves3Belinda Barnes4Kathryn Glass5Barbara Moloney6Amanda Black7Marta Hernandez-Jover8Marta Hernandez-Jover9Sydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, AustraliaSydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, AustraliaSydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, AustraliaSydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, AustraliaQuantitative Sciences, Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, Canberra, ACT, AustraliaCollege of Medicine, Biology and Environment, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, AustraliaNew South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Orange, NSW, AustraliaNew South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Orange, NSW, AustraliaGraham Centre for Agricultural Innovation, School of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, Charles Sturt University and New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga, NSW, AustraliaSchool of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW, AustraliaThis study investigated the pathways of exposure to low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus among Australian commercial chicken farms and estimated the likelihood of this exposure occurring using scenario trees and a stochastic modeling approach following the World Organization for Animal Health methodology for risk assessment. Input values for the models were sourced from scientific literature and an on-farm survey conducted during 2015 and 2016 among Australian commercial chicken farms located in New South Wales and Queensland. Outputs from the models revealed that the probability of a first LPAI virus exposure to a chicken in an Australian commercial chicken farms from one wild bird at any point in time is extremely low. A comparative assessment revealed that across the five farm types (non-free-range meat chicken, free-range meat chicken, cage layer, barn layer, and free range layer farms), free-range layer farms had the highest probability of exposure (7.5 × 10−4; 5% and 95%, 5.7 × 10−4—0.001). The results indicate that the presence of a large number of wild birds on farm is required for exposure to occur across all farm types. The median probability of direct exposure was highest in free-range farm types (5.6 × 10−4 and 1.6 × 10−4 for free-range layer and free-range meat chicken farms, respectively) and indirect exposure was highest in non-free-range farm types (2.7 × 10−4, 2.0 × 10−4, and 1.9 × 10−4 for non-free-range meat chicken, cage layer, and barn layer farms, respectively). The probability of exposure was found to be lowest in summer for all farm types. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the proportion of waterfowl among wild birds on the farm, the presence of waterfowl in the range and feed storage areas, and the prevalence of LPAI in wild birds are the most influential parameters for the probability of Australian commercial chicken farms being exposed to avian influenza (AI) virus. These results highlight the importance of ensuring good biosecurity on farms to minimize the risk of exposure to AI virus and the importance of continuous surveillance of LPAI prevalence including subtypes in wild bird populations.http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fvets.2018.00068/fullavian influenzaAustraliacommercial chickensscenario treesexposure assessmentH5 |
| spellingShingle | Angela Bullanday Scott Jenny-Ann Toribio Mini Singh Peter Groves Belinda Barnes Kathryn Glass Barbara Moloney Amanda Black Marta Hernandez-Jover Marta Hernandez-Jover Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Exposure Risk Assessment in Australian Commercial Chicken Farms Frontiers in Veterinary Science avian influenza Australia commercial chickens scenario trees exposure assessment H5 |
| title | Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Exposure Risk Assessment in Australian Commercial Chicken Farms |
| title_full | Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Exposure Risk Assessment in Australian Commercial Chicken Farms |
| title_fullStr | Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Exposure Risk Assessment in Australian Commercial Chicken Farms |
| title_full_unstemmed | Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Exposure Risk Assessment in Australian Commercial Chicken Farms |
| title_short | Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Exposure Risk Assessment in Australian Commercial Chicken Farms |
| title_sort | low pathogenic avian influenza exposure risk assessment in australian commercial chicken farms |
| topic | avian influenza Australia commercial chickens scenario trees exposure assessment H5 |
| url | http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fvets.2018.00068/full |
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