Assessing Potential Links between Climate Variability and Sea Levels along the Coasts of North America
In order to better understand the extent to which global climate variability is linked to long-term mean and extreme sea level patterns, correlations between average sea levels at coastal sites throughout North America and low-frequency oscillations of several climate indices (CIs) were analyzed for...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-04-01
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| Series: | Climate |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/11/4/80 |
| _version_ | 1797605843409043456 |
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| author | Jason Giovannettone Franklin Paredes-Trejo Venerando Eustáquio Amaro Carlos Antonio Costa dos Santos |
| author_facet | Jason Giovannettone Franklin Paredes-Trejo Venerando Eustáquio Amaro Carlos Antonio Costa dos Santos |
| author_sort | Jason Giovannettone |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In order to better understand the extent to which global climate variability is linked to long-term mean and extreme sea level patterns, correlations between average sea levels at coastal sites throughout North America and low-frequency oscillations of several climate indices (CIs) were analyzed for the entire period of 1948–2018 as well as three equal-length sub-periods using correlation analysis. Correlation strength was assessed using Pearson’s correlation coefficient, while significance was estimated using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation and a bootstrapping technique (<i>p</i>-value). The sliding window size, lag time, and beginning month were varied for optimal correlation; 60-month sliding windows, along with 0 lag time, resulted in the strongest correlations. Strong (r >= 0.60) and significant (<i>p</i>-value <= 0.05) correlations were identified. The Western Hemisphere Warm Pool Eastern Asia/Western Russia index and ENSO exhibited the strongest and most widespread correlation with coastal sea levels. Further analysis was performed to identify and quantify the magnitude of any sea level trends using the Theil–Sen estimator, while the Mann–Kendall (MK) test was used to estimate the significance of said trends. The results revealed that a complex set of ocean–atmosphere interactions govern long-term coastal sea level variability in large coastal regions of North America. The final results of this study allow a greater understanding of potential links between climate variability and long-term sea levels along the coasts of North America, as well as insights into sudden shifts in these relationships, which will contribute toward more accurate long-term forecasts. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T05:07:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-301523a4664941dabfe679fe4f7c5c19 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2225-1154 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T05:07:48Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate |
| spelling | doaj.art-301523a4664941dabfe679fe4f7c5c192023-11-17T18:48:19ZengMDPI AGClimate2225-11542023-04-011148010.3390/cli11040080Assessing Potential Links between Climate Variability and Sea Levels along the Coasts of North AmericaJason Giovannettone0Franklin Paredes-Trejo1Venerando Eustáquio Amaro2Carlos Antonio Costa dos Santos3Sisters of Mercy of the Americas, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USADepartment of Civil Engineering, University of the Western Plains Ezequiel Zamora, San Carlos Campus, Barinas 2201, CO, VenezuelaDepartamento de Engenharia Civil, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Campus Universitário Lagoa Nova, Lagoa Nova, Natal 59078-970, RN, BrazilUnidade Acadêmica de Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade Federal de Campina Grande, Av. Aprígio Veloso, Campina Grande 58109-970, PB, BrazilIn order to better understand the extent to which global climate variability is linked to long-term mean and extreme sea level patterns, correlations between average sea levels at coastal sites throughout North America and low-frequency oscillations of several climate indices (CIs) were analyzed for the entire period of 1948–2018 as well as three equal-length sub-periods using correlation analysis. Correlation strength was assessed using Pearson’s correlation coefficient, while significance was estimated using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation and a bootstrapping technique (<i>p</i>-value). The sliding window size, lag time, and beginning month were varied for optimal correlation; 60-month sliding windows, along with 0 lag time, resulted in the strongest correlations. Strong (r >= 0.60) and significant (<i>p</i>-value <= 0.05) correlations were identified. The Western Hemisphere Warm Pool Eastern Asia/Western Russia index and ENSO exhibited the strongest and most widespread correlation with coastal sea levels. Further analysis was performed to identify and quantify the magnitude of any sea level trends using the Theil–Sen estimator, while the Mann–Kendall (MK) test was used to estimate the significance of said trends. The results revealed that a complex set of ocean–atmosphere interactions govern long-term coastal sea level variability in large coastal regions of North America. The final results of this study allow a greater understanding of potential links between climate variability and long-term sea levels along the coasts of North America, as well as insights into sudden shifts in these relationships, which will contribute toward more accurate long-term forecasts.https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/11/4/80climate variabilityclimate indiceslow-frequency oscillationssea levelsMJOENSO |
| spellingShingle | Jason Giovannettone Franklin Paredes-Trejo Venerando Eustáquio Amaro Carlos Antonio Costa dos Santos Assessing Potential Links between Climate Variability and Sea Levels along the Coasts of North America Climate climate variability climate indices low-frequency oscillations sea levels MJO ENSO |
| title | Assessing Potential Links between Climate Variability and Sea Levels along the Coasts of North America |
| title_full | Assessing Potential Links between Climate Variability and Sea Levels along the Coasts of North America |
| title_fullStr | Assessing Potential Links between Climate Variability and Sea Levels along the Coasts of North America |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing Potential Links between Climate Variability and Sea Levels along the Coasts of North America |
| title_short | Assessing Potential Links between Climate Variability and Sea Levels along the Coasts of North America |
| title_sort | assessing potential links between climate variability and sea levels along the coasts of north america |
| topic | climate variability climate indices low-frequency oscillations sea levels MJO ENSO |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/11/4/80 |
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