Modelling the dispersion of infectious salmon anemia virus from Atlantic salmon farms in the Quoddy Region of New Brunswick, Canada and Maine, USA
Pathogen dispersal from infected aquaculture sites into the surrounding ocean poses risks of infection to wild and farmed species, but is difficult to predict. This study aimed to build a framework using an ocean circulation and a particle tracking model in conjunction with a dynamic infection model...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Canadian Science Publishing
2024-01-01
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| Series: | FACETS |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://facetsjournal.com/doi/10.1139/facets-2023-0156 |
| _version_ | 1831877991337033728 |
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| author | Fuhong Ding Nellie Gagné Delphine Ditlecadet Brady K. Quinn Marc Trudel |
| author_facet | Fuhong Ding Nellie Gagné Delphine Ditlecadet Brady K. Quinn Marc Trudel |
| author_sort | Fuhong Ding |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Pathogen dispersal from infected aquaculture sites into the surrounding ocean poses risks of infection to wild and farmed species, but is difficult to predict. This study aimed to build a framework using an ocean circulation and a particle tracking model in conjunction with a dynamic infection model and a virus inactivation model to simulate the dispersal of the infectious salmon anemia virus (ISAV) from Atlantic salmon farms. Simulated particles were released from hypothetically infected farms and advected by modelled currents. Inactivation of viral cohorts by ambient ultraviolet radiation and natural microbial communities was simulated during advection. Simulations showed that ISAV concentration varied spatiotemporally with the progression of the outbreak, current speed and direction, tidal elevation amplitude, and environmental decay. Connectivity among aquaculture sites varied in relation to seaway distances, though simulations showed that connectivity can also be asymmetrical between farm sites. Sensitivity analyses showed that the dispersal of ISAV was moderately sensitive to uncertainty associated with the viral decay model, highlighting the importance of obtaining accurate estimates of inactivation rates of ISAV. This framework provides an approach to simulate waterborne viral transmission that considers the biology and epidemic features of significance for pathogens and the dynamic conditions of the ocean. |
| first_indexed | 2025-03-21T21:24:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-30332a887be143f398deea55d901b5c3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2371-1671 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-03-21T21:24:24Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Canadian Science Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | FACETS |
| spelling | doaj.art-30332a887be143f398deea55d901b5c32024-05-28T17:38:57ZengCanadian Science PublishingFACETS2371-16712024-01-01911910.1139/facets-2023-0156Modelling the dispersion of infectious salmon anemia virus from Atlantic salmon farms in the Quoddy Region of New Brunswick, Canada and Maine, USAFuhong Ding0Nellie Gagné1Delphine Ditlecadet2Brady K. Quinn3Marc Trudel4Fisheries and Oceans Canada, St. Andrews Biological Station, 125 Marine Science Drive, St. Andrews, NB E5B 0E4, CanadaFisheries and Oceans Canada, Gulf Fisheries Center, 343 Université Ave, Moncton, NB E1C 5K4, CanadaFisheries and Oceans Canada, Gulf Fisheries Center, 343 Université Ave, Moncton, NB E1C 5K4, CanadaFisheries and Oceans Canada, St. Andrews Biological Station, 125 Marine Science Drive, St. Andrews, NB E5B 0E4, CanadaFisheries and Oceans Canada, St. Andrews Biological Station, 125 Marine Science Drive, St. Andrews, NB E5B 0E4, CanadaPathogen dispersal from infected aquaculture sites into the surrounding ocean poses risks of infection to wild and farmed species, but is difficult to predict. This study aimed to build a framework using an ocean circulation and a particle tracking model in conjunction with a dynamic infection model and a virus inactivation model to simulate the dispersal of the infectious salmon anemia virus (ISAV) from Atlantic salmon farms. Simulated particles were released from hypothetically infected farms and advected by modelled currents. Inactivation of viral cohorts by ambient ultraviolet radiation and natural microbial communities was simulated during advection. Simulations showed that ISAV concentration varied spatiotemporally with the progression of the outbreak, current speed and direction, tidal elevation amplitude, and environmental decay. Connectivity among aquaculture sites varied in relation to seaway distances, though simulations showed that connectivity can also be asymmetrical between farm sites. Sensitivity analyses showed that the dispersal of ISAV was moderately sensitive to uncertainty associated with the viral decay model, highlighting the importance of obtaining accurate estimates of inactivation rates of ISAV. This framework provides an approach to simulate waterborne viral transmission that considers the biology and epidemic features of significance for pathogens and the dynamic conditions of the ocean.https://facetsjournal.com/doi/10.1139/facets-2023-0156infectious salmon anemia viruswaterborne pathogenshydrodynamic modelparticle trackinginfection dynamicsalmon aquaculture |
| spellingShingle | Fuhong Ding Nellie Gagné Delphine Ditlecadet Brady K. Quinn Marc Trudel Modelling the dispersion of infectious salmon anemia virus from Atlantic salmon farms in the Quoddy Region of New Brunswick, Canada and Maine, USA FACETS infectious salmon anemia virus waterborne pathogens hydrodynamic model particle tracking infection dynamic salmon aquaculture |
| title | Modelling the dispersion of infectious salmon anemia virus from Atlantic salmon farms in the Quoddy Region of New Brunswick, Canada and Maine, USA |
| title_full | Modelling the dispersion of infectious salmon anemia virus from Atlantic salmon farms in the Quoddy Region of New Brunswick, Canada and Maine, USA |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the dispersion of infectious salmon anemia virus from Atlantic salmon farms in the Quoddy Region of New Brunswick, Canada and Maine, USA |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the dispersion of infectious salmon anemia virus from Atlantic salmon farms in the Quoddy Region of New Brunswick, Canada and Maine, USA |
| title_short | Modelling the dispersion of infectious salmon anemia virus from Atlantic salmon farms in the Quoddy Region of New Brunswick, Canada and Maine, USA |
| title_sort | modelling the dispersion of infectious salmon anemia virus from atlantic salmon farms in the quoddy region of new brunswick canada and maine usa |
| topic | infectious salmon anemia virus waterborne pathogens hydrodynamic model particle tracking infection dynamic salmon aquaculture |
| url | https://facetsjournal.com/doi/10.1139/facets-2023-0156 |
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