Climate Change and Green Sea Turtle Sex Ratio—Preventing Possible Extinction
Climate change poses a threat to species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). A recent study on green sea turtles (<i>Chelonia mydas)</i> at the northern Great Barrier Reef (GBR) showed a highly female-skewed sex ratio with almost all juvenile turtles being female. This sh...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-05-01
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| Series: | Genes |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4425/11/5/588 |
| _version_ | 1797567005828579328 |
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| author | Jana Blechschmidt Meike J. Wittmann Chantal Blüml |
| author_facet | Jana Blechschmidt Meike J. Wittmann Chantal Blüml |
| author_sort | Jana Blechschmidt |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change poses a threat to species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). A recent study on green sea turtles (<i>Chelonia mydas)</i> at the northern Great Barrier Reef (GBR) showed a highly female-skewed sex ratio with almost all juvenile turtles being female. This shortage of males might eventually cause population extinction, unless rapid evolutionary rescue, migration, range shifts, or conservation efforts ensure a sufficient number of males. We built a stochastic individual-based model inspired by <i>C. mydas</i> but potentially transferrable to other species with TSD. Pivotal temperature, nest depth, and shading were evolvable traits. Additionally, we considered the effect of crossbreeding between northern and southern GBR, nest site philopatry, and conservation efforts. Among the evolvable traits, nest depth was the most likely to rescue the population, but even here the warmer climate change scenarios led to extinction. We expected turtles to choose colder beaches under rising temperatures, but surprisingly, nest site philopatry did not improve persistence. Conservation efforts promoted population survival and did not preclude trait evolution. Although extra information is needed to make reliable predictions for the fate of green sea turtles, our results illustrate how evolution can shape the fate of long lived, vulnerable species in the face of climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T19:35:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3044d1de47dd41d59380a441fc7cb5a7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4425 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T19:35:27Z |
| publishDate | 2020-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Genes |
| spelling | doaj.art-3044d1de47dd41d59380a441fc7cb5a72023-11-20T01:42:27ZengMDPI AGGenes2073-44252020-05-0111558810.3390/genes11050588Climate Change and Green Sea Turtle Sex Ratio—Preventing Possible ExtinctionJana Blechschmidt0Meike J. Wittmann1Chantal Blüml2Faculty of Biology, Theoretical Biology, Bielefeld University, Universitätsstraße 25, 33615 Bielefeld, GermanyFaculty of Biology, Theoretical Biology, Bielefeld University, Universitätsstraße 25, 33615 Bielefeld, GermanyFaculty of Biology, Theoretical Biology, Bielefeld University, Universitätsstraße 25, 33615 Bielefeld, GermanyClimate change poses a threat to species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). A recent study on green sea turtles (<i>Chelonia mydas)</i> at the northern Great Barrier Reef (GBR) showed a highly female-skewed sex ratio with almost all juvenile turtles being female. This shortage of males might eventually cause population extinction, unless rapid evolutionary rescue, migration, range shifts, or conservation efforts ensure a sufficient number of males. We built a stochastic individual-based model inspired by <i>C. mydas</i> but potentially transferrable to other species with TSD. Pivotal temperature, nest depth, and shading were evolvable traits. Additionally, we considered the effect of crossbreeding between northern and southern GBR, nest site philopatry, and conservation efforts. Among the evolvable traits, nest depth was the most likely to rescue the population, but even here the warmer climate change scenarios led to extinction. We expected turtles to choose colder beaches under rising temperatures, but surprisingly, nest site philopatry did not improve persistence. Conservation efforts promoted population survival and did not preclude trait evolution. Although extra information is needed to make reliable predictions for the fate of green sea turtles, our results illustrate how evolution can shape the fate of long lived, vulnerable species in the face of climate change.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4425/11/5/588evolutionary rescueglobal warmingrapid evolution<i>Chelonia mydas</i>temperature-dependent sex determination |
| spellingShingle | Jana Blechschmidt Meike J. Wittmann Chantal Blüml Climate Change and Green Sea Turtle Sex Ratio—Preventing Possible Extinction Genes evolutionary rescue global warming rapid evolution <i>Chelonia mydas</i> temperature-dependent sex determination |
| title | Climate Change and Green Sea Turtle Sex Ratio—Preventing Possible Extinction |
| title_full | Climate Change and Green Sea Turtle Sex Ratio—Preventing Possible Extinction |
| title_fullStr | Climate Change and Green Sea Turtle Sex Ratio—Preventing Possible Extinction |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate Change and Green Sea Turtle Sex Ratio—Preventing Possible Extinction |
| title_short | Climate Change and Green Sea Turtle Sex Ratio—Preventing Possible Extinction |
| title_sort | climate change and green sea turtle sex ratio preventing possible extinction |
| topic | evolutionary rescue global warming rapid evolution <i>Chelonia mydas</i> temperature-dependent sex determination |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4425/11/5/588 |
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