Epidemiological Characteristics of Varicella in Anhui Province, China, 2012-2021: Surveillance Study
BackgroundVaricella is a mild, self-limited disease caused by varicella-zoster virus (VZV) infection. Recently, the disease burden of varicella has been gradually increasing in China; however, the epidemiological characteristics of varicella have not been reported for Anhui P...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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JMIR Publications
2024-04-01
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| Series: | JMIR Public Health and Surveillance |
| Online Access: | https://publichealth.jmir.org/2024/1/e50673 |
| _version_ | 1827292228287987712 |
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| author | Kun Xuan Ning Zhang Tao Li Xingya Pang Qingru Li Tianming Zhao Binbing Wang Zhenqiu Zha Jihai Tang |
| author_facet | Kun Xuan Ning Zhang Tao Li Xingya Pang Qingru Li Tianming Zhao Binbing Wang Zhenqiu Zha Jihai Tang |
| author_sort | Kun Xuan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
BackgroundVaricella is a mild, self-limited disease caused by varicella-zoster virus (VZV) infection. Recently, the disease burden of varicella has been gradually increasing in China; however, the epidemiological characteristics of varicella have not been reported for Anhui Province.
ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to analyze the epidemiology of varicella in Anhui from 2012 to 2021, which can provide a basis for the future study and formulation of varicella prevention and control policies in the province.
MethodsSurveillance data were used to characterize the epidemiology of varicella in Anhui from 2012 to 2021 in terms of population, time, and space. Spatial autocorrelation of varicella was explored using the Moran index (Moran I). The Kulldorff space-time scan statistic was used to analyze the spatiotemporal aggregation of varicella.
ResultsA total of 276,115 cases of varicella were reported from 2012 to 2021 in Anhui, with an average annual incidence of 44.8 per 100,000, and the highest incidence was 81.2 per 100,000 in 2019. The male-to-female ratio of cases was approximately 1.26, which has been gradually decreasing in recent years. The population aged 5-14 years comprised the high-incidence group, although the incidence in the population 30 years and older has gradually increased. Students accounted for the majority of cases, and the proportion of cases in both home-reared children (aged 0-7 years who are not sent to nurseries, daycare centers, or school) and kindergarten children (aged 3-6 years) has changed slightly in recent years. There were two peaks of varicella incidence annually, except for 2020, and the incidence was typically higher in the winter peak than in summer. The incidence of varicella in southern Anhui was higher than that in northern Anhui. The average annual incidence at the county level ranged from 6.61 to 152.14 per 100,000, and the varicella epidemics in 2018-2021 were relatively severe. The spatial and temporal distribution of varicella in Anhui was not random, with a positive spatial autocorrelation found at the county level (Moran I=0.412). There were 11 districts or counties with high-high clusters, mainly distributed in the south of Anhui, and 3 districts or counties with high-low or low-high clusters. Space-time scan analysis identified five possible clusters of areas, and the most likely cluster was distributed in the southeastern region of Anhui.
ConclusionsThis study comprehensively describes the epidemiology and changing trend of varicella in Anhui from 2012 to 2021. In the future, preventive and control measures should be strengthened for the key populations and regions of varicella. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T12:59:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3072fae1afaa4d1e9bc2aed588718e9e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2369-2960 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T12:59:29Z |
| publishDate | 2024-04-01 |
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| spelling | doaj.art-3072fae1afaa4d1e9bc2aed588718e9e2024-04-05T16:00:34ZengJMIR PublicationsJMIR Public Health and Surveillance2369-29602024-04-0110e5067310.2196/50673Epidemiological Characteristics of Varicella in Anhui Province, China, 2012-2021: Surveillance StudyKun Xuanhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8867-9577Ning Zhanghttps://orcid.org/0009-0007-0429-9985Tao Lihttps://orcid.org/0009-0000-2442-7701Xingya Panghttps://orcid.org/0009-0004-2020-135XQingru Lihttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0827-9416Tianming Zhaohttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3871-6173Binbing Wanghttps://orcid.org/0009-0001-8225-5132Zhenqiu Zhahttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3678-1035Jihai Tanghttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9776-6699 BackgroundVaricella is a mild, self-limited disease caused by varicella-zoster virus (VZV) infection. Recently, the disease burden of varicella has been gradually increasing in China; however, the epidemiological characteristics of varicella have not been reported for Anhui Province. ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to analyze the epidemiology of varicella in Anhui from 2012 to 2021, which can provide a basis for the future study and formulation of varicella prevention and control policies in the province. MethodsSurveillance data were used to characterize the epidemiology of varicella in Anhui from 2012 to 2021 in terms of population, time, and space. Spatial autocorrelation of varicella was explored using the Moran index (Moran I). The Kulldorff space-time scan statistic was used to analyze the spatiotemporal aggregation of varicella. ResultsA total of 276,115 cases of varicella were reported from 2012 to 2021 in Anhui, with an average annual incidence of 44.8 per 100,000, and the highest incidence was 81.2 per 100,000 in 2019. The male-to-female ratio of cases was approximately 1.26, which has been gradually decreasing in recent years. The population aged 5-14 years comprised the high-incidence group, although the incidence in the population 30 years and older has gradually increased. Students accounted for the majority of cases, and the proportion of cases in both home-reared children (aged 0-7 years who are not sent to nurseries, daycare centers, or school) and kindergarten children (aged 3-6 years) has changed slightly in recent years. There were two peaks of varicella incidence annually, except for 2020, and the incidence was typically higher in the winter peak than in summer. The incidence of varicella in southern Anhui was higher than that in northern Anhui. The average annual incidence at the county level ranged from 6.61 to 152.14 per 100,000, and the varicella epidemics in 2018-2021 were relatively severe. The spatial and temporal distribution of varicella in Anhui was not random, with a positive spatial autocorrelation found at the county level (Moran I=0.412). There were 11 districts or counties with high-high clusters, mainly distributed in the south of Anhui, and 3 districts or counties with high-low or low-high clusters. Space-time scan analysis identified five possible clusters of areas, and the most likely cluster was distributed in the southeastern region of Anhui. ConclusionsThis study comprehensively describes the epidemiology and changing trend of varicella in Anhui from 2012 to 2021. In the future, preventive and control measures should be strengthened for the key populations and regions of varicella.https://publichealth.jmir.org/2024/1/e50673 |
| spellingShingle | Kun Xuan Ning Zhang Tao Li Xingya Pang Qingru Li Tianming Zhao Binbing Wang Zhenqiu Zha Jihai Tang Epidemiological Characteristics of Varicella in Anhui Province, China, 2012-2021: Surveillance Study JMIR Public Health and Surveillance |
| title | Epidemiological Characteristics of Varicella in Anhui Province, China, 2012-2021: Surveillance Study |
| title_full | Epidemiological Characteristics of Varicella in Anhui Province, China, 2012-2021: Surveillance Study |
| title_fullStr | Epidemiological Characteristics of Varicella in Anhui Province, China, 2012-2021: Surveillance Study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Epidemiological Characteristics of Varicella in Anhui Province, China, 2012-2021: Surveillance Study |
| title_short | Epidemiological Characteristics of Varicella in Anhui Province, China, 2012-2021: Surveillance Study |
| title_sort | epidemiological characteristics of varicella in anhui province china 2012 2021 surveillance study |
| url | https://publichealth.jmir.org/2024/1/e50673 |
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