Demography, geopolitics and great power: A lesson from the past
Demography is one of the factors determining and influencing the geopolitical balance of power in international relations. Politicians are the main actors in international relations, but powerful human dynamics are at work behind them. The study of geopolitics describes these dynamics, linked to hum...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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AIMS Press
2023-12-01
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| Series: | AIMS Geosciences |
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| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/geosci.2023043?viewType=HTML |
| _version_ | 1827391805265543168 |
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| author | Giuseppe Terranova |
| author_facet | Giuseppe Terranova |
| author_sort | Giuseppe Terranova |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Demography is one of the factors determining and influencing the geopolitical balance of power in international relations. Politicians are the main actors in international relations, but powerful human dynamics are at work behind them. The study of geopolitics describes these dynamics, linked to human and physical geography. In the evolution of great power competition, economic, military and technological factors are taken into account, but the importance of demographic trends, which will play a key role in the struggle for world power, is often underestimated as a political and geopolitical factor. Demography works over long periods of time, i.e., over generations. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the importance of the above theory by looking at the demographic shock that France experienced in the 19th century and the geopolitical resulting consequences. As a result of this demographic shock, France lost its supremacy as the most populous country in Europe and was definitively overtaken by Germany. It is a scenario that can be useful for understanding the evolution of demographic competition in the 21st century, such as that of China versus India. In 2023, China will lose its supremacy as the world's most populous country to India. This will be the first time that China has lost its primacy since the United Nations began tracking global demographic trends in 1950. China, like France in the past, is in danger of never catching up with its demographic disadvantage. History suggests that once a country crosses the threshold of negative population growth, regardless of the differences in national experiences, there is little that its government can do to reverse it. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T17:20:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3092b9d7eaf0430c8d9693d979a62f57 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2471-2132 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T17:20:34Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | AIMS Geosciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-3092b9d7eaf0430c8d9693d979a62f572024-01-03T06:06:32ZengAIMS PressAIMS Geosciences2471-21322023-12-019479880910.3934/geosci.2023043Demography, geopolitics and great power: A lesson from the pastGiuseppe Terranova0The Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence on Integration of Migrants in Europe (IntoME), University of Tuscia, ItalyDemography is one of the factors determining and influencing the geopolitical balance of power in international relations. Politicians are the main actors in international relations, but powerful human dynamics are at work behind them. The study of geopolitics describes these dynamics, linked to human and physical geography. In the evolution of great power competition, economic, military and technological factors are taken into account, but the importance of demographic trends, which will play a key role in the struggle for world power, is often underestimated as a political and geopolitical factor. Demography works over long periods of time, i.e., over generations. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the importance of the above theory by looking at the demographic shock that France experienced in the 19th century and the geopolitical resulting consequences. As a result of this demographic shock, France lost its supremacy as the most populous country in Europe and was definitively overtaken by Germany. It is a scenario that can be useful for understanding the evolution of demographic competition in the 21st century, such as that of China versus India. In 2023, China will lose its supremacy as the world's most populous country to India. This will be the first time that China has lost its primacy since the United Nations began tracking global demographic trends in 1950. China, like France in the past, is in danger of never catching up with its demographic disadvantage. History suggests that once a country crosses the threshold of negative population growth, regardless of the differences in national experiences, there is little that its government can do to reverse it.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/geosci.2023043?viewType=HTMLdemographygeopolitics of populationgreat powerpopulation ageingoverpopulation |
| spellingShingle | Giuseppe Terranova Demography, geopolitics and great power: A lesson from the past AIMS Geosciences demography geopolitics of population great power population ageing overpopulation |
| title | Demography, geopolitics and great power: A lesson from the past |
| title_full | Demography, geopolitics and great power: A lesson from the past |
| title_fullStr | Demography, geopolitics and great power: A lesson from the past |
| title_full_unstemmed | Demography, geopolitics and great power: A lesson from the past |
| title_short | Demography, geopolitics and great power: A lesson from the past |
| title_sort | demography geopolitics and great power a lesson from the past |
| topic | demography geopolitics of population great power population ageing overpopulation |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/geosci.2023043?viewType=HTML |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT giuseppeterranova demographygeopoliticsandgreatpoweralessonfromthepast |