Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations
Considerable research effort has recently been directed at improving and operationalising ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Whilst this creates new opportunities for improving the performance of water resources systems, there may also be associated risks. Here, we explore these potential ri...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2017-09-01
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| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/4841/2017/hess-21-4841-2017.pdf |
| _version_ | 1819040097320828928 |
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| author | S. W. D. Turner S. W. D. Turner J. C. Bennett J. C. Bennett D. E. Robertson S. Galelli |
| author_facet | S. W. D. Turner S. W. D. Turner J. C. Bennett J. C. Bennett D. E. Robertson S. Galelli |
| author_sort | S. W. D. Turner |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Considerable research effort has recently been directed at improving and
operationalising ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Whilst this creates
new opportunities for improving the performance of water resources systems,
there may also be associated risks. Here, we explore these potential risks by
examining the sensitivity of forecast value (improvement in system
performance brought about by adopting forecasts) to changes in the forecast
skill for a range of hypothetical reservoir designs with contrasting
operating objectives. Forecast-informed operations are simulated using
rolling horizon, adaptive control and then benchmarked against optimised
control rules to assess performance improvements. Results show that there
exists a strong relationship between forecast skill and value for systems
operated to maintain a target water level. But this relationship breaks down
when the reservoir is operated to satisfy a target demand for water; good
forecast accuracy does not necessarily translate into performance
improvement. We show that the primary cause of this behaviour is the
buffering role played by storage in water supply reservoirs, which renders
the forecast superfluous for long periods of the operation. System
performance depends primarily on forecast accuracy when critical decisions
are made – namely during severe drought. As it is not possible to know in
advance if a forecast will perform well at such moments, we advocate
measuring the consistency of forecast performance, through bootstrap
resampling, to indicate potential usefulness in storage operations. Our
results highlight the need for sensitivity assessment in value-of-forecast
studies involving reservoirs with supply objectives. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T09:03:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-30a908d56bcc48d39910e319b51bb243 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T09:03:41Z |
| publishDate | 2017-09-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-30a908d56bcc48d39910e319b51bb2432022-12-21T19:09:25ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382017-09-01214841485910.5194/hess-21-4841-2017Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operationsS. W. D. Turner0S. W. D. Turner1J. C. Bennett2J. C. Bennett3D. E. Robertson4S. Galelli5Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USASUTD-MIT International Design Centre, Singapore University of Technology and Design, 487372, SingaporeCSIRO, Melbourne, Clayton, Victoria 3168, AustraliaInstitute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Battery Point, Tasmania 7004, AustraliaCSIRO, Melbourne, Clayton, Victoria 3168, AustraliaPillar of Engineering Systems and Design, Singapore University of Technology and Design, 487372, SingaporeConsiderable research effort has recently been directed at improving and operationalising ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasts. Whilst this creates new opportunities for improving the performance of water resources systems, there may also be associated risks. Here, we explore these potential risks by examining the sensitivity of forecast value (improvement in system performance brought about by adopting forecasts) to changes in the forecast skill for a range of hypothetical reservoir designs with contrasting operating objectives. Forecast-informed operations are simulated using rolling horizon, adaptive control and then benchmarked against optimised control rules to assess performance improvements. Results show that there exists a strong relationship between forecast skill and value for systems operated to maintain a target water level. But this relationship breaks down when the reservoir is operated to satisfy a target demand for water; good forecast accuracy does not necessarily translate into performance improvement. We show that the primary cause of this behaviour is the buffering role played by storage in water supply reservoirs, which renders the forecast superfluous for long periods of the operation. System performance depends primarily on forecast accuracy when critical decisions are made – namely during severe drought. As it is not possible to know in advance if a forecast will perform well at such moments, we advocate measuring the consistency of forecast performance, through bootstrap resampling, to indicate potential usefulness in storage operations. Our results highlight the need for sensitivity assessment in value-of-forecast studies involving reservoirs with supply objectives.https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/4841/2017/hess-21-4841-2017.pdf |
| spellingShingle | S. W. D. Turner S. W. D. Turner J. C. Bennett J. C. Bennett D. E. Robertson S. Galelli Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations |
| title_full | Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations |
| title_fullStr | Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations |
| title_short | Complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations |
| title_sort | complex relationship between seasonal streamflow forecast skill and value in reservoir operations |
| url | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/4841/2017/hess-21-4841-2017.pdf |
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