A universal multifractal approach to assessment of spatiotemporal extreme precipitation over the Loess Plateau of China
<p>Extreme precipitation (EP) is a major external agent driving various natural hazards in the Loess Plateau (LP), China. However, the characteristics of the spatiotemporal EP responsible for such hazardous situations remain poorly understood. We integrate universal multifractals with a segmen...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2020-02-01
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| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/24/809/2020/hess-24-809-2020.pdf |
| _version_ | 1828433088588283904 |
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| author | J. Zhang J. Zhang J. Zhang J. Zhang G. Gao B. Fu C. Wang H. V. Gupta X. Zhang R. Li |
| author_facet | J. Zhang J. Zhang J. Zhang J. Zhang G. Gao B. Fu C. Wang H. V. Gupta X. Zhang R. Li |
| author_sort | J. Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Extreme precipitation (EP) is a major external agent driving various natural hazards in the Loess Plateau (LP), China. However, the characteristics of the spatiotemporal EP responsible for such hazardous situations remain poorly understood. We integrate universal multifractals with a segmentation algorithm to characterize a physically meaningful threshold for EP (EPT). Using daily data from 1961 to 2015, we investigate the spatiotemporal variation of EP over the LP. Our results indicate that (with precipitation increasing) EPTs range from 17.3 to 50.3 mm d<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−1</sup></span>, while the mean annual EP increases from 35 to 138 mm from the northwestern to the southeastern LP. Further, historically, the EP frequency (EPF) has spatially varied from 54 to 116 d, with the highest EPF occurring in the mid-southern and southeastern LP where precipitation is much more abundant. However, EP intensities tend to be strongest in the central LP, where precipitation also tends to be scarce, and get progressively weaker as we move towards the margins (similarly to EP severity). An examination of atmospheric
circulation patterns indicates that the central LP is the inland boundary with respect to the reach and impact of
tropical cyclones in China, resulting in the highest EP intensities and EP severities being observed in this area. Under the control of the East Asian monsoon, precipitation from June to September accounts for 72 % of the total amount, and 91 % of the total EP events are concentrated between June and August. Further, EP events occur, on average, 11 d earlier than the wettest part of the season. These phenomena are responsible for the most serious natural hazards in the LP, especially in the central LP region. Spatiotemporally, 91.4 % of the LP has experienced a downward trend in precipitation, whereas 62.1 % of the area has experienced upward trends in the EP indices, indicating the potential risk of more serious hazardous situations. The universal multifractal approach considers the physical processes and probability distribution of precipitation, thereby providing a formal framework for spatiotemporal EP assessment at the regional scale.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T18:30:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-30d7d65dec174dfd87cee91e3690fc1a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T18:30:18Z |
| publishDate | 2020-02-01 |
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| series | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-30d7d65dec174dfd87cee91e3690fc1a2022-12-22T01:37:58ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382020-02-012480982610.5194/hess-24-809-2020A universal multifractal approach to assessment of spatiotemporal extreme precipitation over the Loess Plateau of ChinaJ. Zhang0J. Zhang1J. Zhang2J. Zhang3G. Gao4B. Fu5C. Wang6H. V. Gupta7X. Zhang8R. Li9School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yang ling, Shaanxi 712100, ChinaKey Laboratory of Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100035, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, ChinaDepartment of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USAState Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yang ling, Shaanxi 712100, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yang ling, Shaanxi 712100, China<p>Extreme precipitation (EP) is a major external agent driving various natural hazards in the Loess Plateau (LP), China. However, the characteristics of the spatiotemporal EP responsible for such hazardous situations remain poorly understood. We integrate universal multifractals with a segmentation algorithm to characterize a physically meaningful threshold for EP (EPT). Using daily data from 1961 to 2015, we investigate the spatiotemporal variation of EP over the LP. Our results indicate that (with precipitation increasing) EPTs range from 17.3 to 50.3 mm d<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−1</sup></span>, while the mean annual EP increases from 35 to 138 mm from the northwestern to the southeastern LP. Further, historically, the EP frequency (EPF) has spatially varied from 54 to 116 d, with the highest EPF occurring in the mid-southern and southeastern LP where precipitation is much more abundant. However, EP intensities tend to be strongest in the central LP, where precipitation also tends to be scarce, and get progressively weaker as we move towards the margins (similarly to EP severity). An examination of atmospheric circulation patterns indicates that the central LP is the inland boundary with respect to the reach and impact of tropical cyclones in China, resulting in the highest EP intensities and EP severities being observed in this area. Under the control of the East Asian monsoon, precipitation from June to September accounts for 72 % of the total amount, and 91 % of the total EP events are concentrated between June and August. Further, EP events occur, on average, 11 d earlier than the wettest part of the season. These phenomena are responsible for the most serious natural hazards in the LP, especially in the central LP region. Spatiotemporally, 91.4 % of the LP has experienced a downward trend in precipitation, whereas 62.1 % of the area has experienced upward trends in the EP indices, indicating the potential risk of more serious hazardous situations. The universal multifractal approach considers the physical processes and probability distribution of precipitation, thereby providing a formal framework for spatiotemporal EP assessment at the regional scale.</p>https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/24/809/2020/hess-24-809-2020.pdf |
| spellingShingle | J. Zhang J. Zhang J. Zhang J. Zhang G. Gao B. Fu C. Wang H. V. Gupta X. Zhang R. Li A universal multifractal approach to assessment of spatiotemporal extreme precipitation over the Loess Plateau of China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| title | A universal multifractal approach to assessment of spatiotemporal extreme precipitation over the Loess Plateau of China |
| title_full | A universal multifractal approach to assessment of spatiotemporal extreme precipitation over the Loess Plateau of China |
| title_fullStr | A universal multifractal approach to assessment of spatiotemporal extreme precipitation over the Loess Plateau of China |
| title_full_unstemmed | A universal multifractal approach to assessment of spatiotemporal extreme precipitation over the Loess Plateau of China |
| title_short | A universal multifractal approach to assessment of spatiotemporal extreme precipitation over the Loess Plateau of China |
| title_sort | universal multifractal approach to assessment of spatiotemporal extreme precipitation over the loess plateau of china |
| url | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/24/809/2020/hess-24-809-2020.pdf |
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