Arctic cyclones have become more intense and longer-lived over the past seven decades
Abstract Intense cyclones driving extreme Arctic weather and climate events have been more frequently observed during recent years, causing dramatic environmental and socioeconomic impacts. However, inconsistencies have emerged about long-term changes in Arctic cyclone activity. Here we analyze mult...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01003-0 |
| _version_ | 1797556147207536640 |
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| author | Xiangdong Zhang Han Tang Jing Zhang John E. Walsh Erika L. Roesler Benjamin Hillman Thomas J. Ballinger Wilbert Weijer |
| author_facet | Xiangdong Zhang Han Tang Jing Zhang John E. Walsh Erika L. Roesler Benjamin Hillman Thomas J. Ballinger Wilbert Weijer |
| author_sort | Xiangdong Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Intense cyclones driving extreme Arctic weather and climate events have been more frequently observed during recent years, causing dramatic environmental and socioeconomic impacts. However, inconsistencies have emerged about long-term changes in Arctic cyclone activity. Here we analyze multiple reanalysis datasets covering a multidecadal period with improvements to the cyclone tracking algorithm and the integrated cyclone activity metric. The results indicate an intensification of Arctic cyclone activity over the last seven decades. There has been a long-term shift of the maximum cyclone counts from weaker to stronger cyclones and a pronounced lengthening of the duration of strong cyclones. Spatial analysis shows increased strong cyclone frequency over the Arctic, driven by enhanced lower troposphere baroclinicity, amplified winter jet stream waves over the subpolar North Atlantic, and a strengthened summer tropospheric vortex over the central Arctic. The stratospheric vortex has also intensified the tropospheric waves and vortex with distinct dynamics between winter and summer. Recently enhanced baroclinicity over large areas of the Arctic and midlatitudes suggests more complicated atmospheric dynamics than what is hypothesized with Arctic-amplification-induced decrease in meridional temperature gradients. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T16:58:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-30ea0e747fb2474e8e3f7ec26cdc9ce1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T16:58:43Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj.art-30ea0e747fb2474e8e3f7ec26cdc9ce12023-11-20T11:02:32ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352023-10-014111210.1038/s43247-023-01003-0Arctic cyclones have become more intense and longer-lived over the past seven decadesXiangdong Zhang0Han Tang1Jing Zhang2John E. Walsh3Erika L. Roesler4Benjamin Hillman5Thomas J. Ballinger6Wilbert Weijer7North Carolina State UniversityUniversity of Alaska FairbanksNorth Carolina A&T State UniversityUniversity of Alaska FairbanksSandia National LaboratoriesSandia National LaboratoriesUniversity of Alaska FairbanksLos Alamos National LaboratoryAbstract Intense cyclones driving extreme Arctic weather and climate events have been more frequently observed during recent years, causing dramatic environmental and socioeconomic impacts. However, inconsistencies have emerged about long-term changes in Arctic cyclone activity. Here we analyze multiple reanalysis datasets covering a multidecadal period with improvements to the cyclone tracking algorithm and the integrated cyclone activity metric. The results indicate an intensification of Arctic cyclone activity over the last seven decades. There has been a long-term shift of the maximum cyclone counts from weaker to stronger cyclones and a pronounced lengthening of the duration of strong cyclones. Spatial analysis shows increased strong cyclone frequency over the Arctic, driven by enhanced lower troposphere baroclinicity, amplified winter jet stream waves over the subpolar North Atlantic, and a strengthened summer tropospheric vortex over the central Arctic. The stratospheric vortex has also intensified the tropospheric waves and vortex with distinct dynamics between winter and summer. Recently enhanced baroclinicity over large areas of the Arctic and midlatitudes suggests more complicated atmospheric dynamics than what is hypothesized with Arctic-amplification-induced decrease in meridional temperature gradients.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01003-0 |
| spellingShingle | Xiangdong Zhang Han Tang Jing Zhang John E. Walsh Erika L. Roesler Benjamin Hillman Thomas J. Ballinger Wilbert Weijer Arctic cyclones have become more intense and longer-lived over the past seven decades Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Arctic cyclones have become more intense and longer-lived over the past seven decades |
| title_full | Arctic cyclones have become more intense and longer-lived over the past seven decades |
| title_fullStr | Arctic cyclones have become more intense and longer-lived over the past seven decades |
| title_full_unstemmed | Arctic cyclones have become more intense and longer-lived over the past seven decades |
| title_short | Arctic cyclones have become more intense and longer-lived over the past seven decades |
| title_sort | arctic cyclones have become more intense and longer lived over the past seven decades |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01003-0 |
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