Changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic meridional heat transport in a RCP 8.5 climate projection in MPI-ESM
We investigate changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic Ocean meridional heat transport (OHT) in a climate projection experiment with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Specifically, we compare a Represe...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2017-02-01
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| Series: | Earth System Dynamics |
| Online Access: | http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/8/129/2017/esd-8-129-2017.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818546571632967680 |
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| author | M. Fischer D. I. V. Domeisen W. A. Müller J. Baehr |
| author_facet | M. Fischer D. I. V. Domeisen W. A. Müller J. Baehr |
| author_sort | M. Fischer |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We investigate changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic Ocean meridional
heat transport (OHT) in a climate projection experiment with the Max Planck
Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) performed for the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Specifically, we compare a
Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP 8.5 climate change scenario,
covering the simulation period from 2005 to 2300, to a historical simulation,
covering the simulation period from 1850 to 2005. In RCP 8.5, the OHT
declines by 30–50 % in comparison to the historical simulation in the
North Atlantic by the end of the 23rd century. The decline in the OHT is
accompanied by a change in the seasonal cycle of the total OHT and its
components. We decompose the OHT into overturning and gyre component. For the
OHT seasonal cycle, we find a northward shift of 5° and
latitude-dependent shifts between 1 and 6 months that are mainly associated
with changes in the meridional velocity field. We find that the changes in
the OHT seasonal cycle predominantly result from changes in the wind-driven
surface circulation, which projects onto the overturning component of the OHT
in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. This leads in turn to
latitude-dependent shifts between 1 and 6 months in the overturning
component. In comparison to the historical simulation, in the subpolar North
Atlantic, in RCP 8.5 we find a reduction of the North Atlantic Deep Water
formation and changes in the gyre heat transport result in a strongly
weakened seasonal cycle with a weakened amplitude by the end of the 23rd
century. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T07:55:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-310ef5132dd44fadba32fd61986fe3f8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2190-4979 2190-4987 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T07:55:00Z |
| publishDate | 2017-02-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth System Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj.art-310ef5132dd44fadba32fd61986fe3f82022-12-22T00:32:21ZengCopernicus PublicationsEarth System Dynamics2190-49792190-49872017-02-018112914610.5194/esd-8-129-2017Changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic meridional heat transport in a RCP 8.5 climate projection in MPI-ESMM. Fischer0D. I. V. Domeisen1W. A. Müller2J. Baehr3Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Universität Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, GermanyGEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, GermanyMax Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, GermanyInstitute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Universität Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, GermanyWe investigate changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic Ocean meridional heat transport (OHT) in a climate projection experiment with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Specifically, we compare a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, covering the simulation period from 2005 to 2300, to a historical simulation, covering the simulation period from 1850 to 2005. In RCP 8.5, the OHT declines by 30–50 % in comparison to the historical simulation in the North Atlantic by the end of the 23rd century. The decline in the OHT is accompanied by a change in the seasonal cycle of the total OHT and its components. We decompose the OHT into overturning and gyre component. For the OHT seasonal cycle, we find a northward shift of 5° and latitude-dependent shifts between 1 and 6 months that are mainly associated with changes in the meridional velocity field. We find that the changes in the OHT seasonal cycle predominantly result from changes in the wind-driven surface circulation, which projects onto the overturning component of the OHT in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. This leads in turn to latitude-dependent shifts between 1 and 6 months in the overturning component. In comparison to the historical simulation, in the subpolar North Atlantic, in RCP 8.5 we find a reduction of the North Atlantic Deep Water formation and changes in the gyre heat transport result in a strongly weakened seasonal cycle with a weakened amplitude by the end of the 23rd century.http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/8/129/2017/esd-8-129-2017.pdf |
| spellingShingle | M. Fischer D. I. V. Domeisen W. A. Müller J. Baehr Changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic meridional heat transport in a RCP 8.5 climate projection in MPI-ESM Earth System Dynamics |
| title | Changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic meridional heat transport in a RCP 8.5 climate projection in MPI-ESM |
| title_full | Changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic meridional heat transport in a RCP 8.5 climate projection in MPI-ESM |
| title_fullStr | Changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic meridional heat transport in a RCP 8.5 climate projection in MPI-ESM |
| title_full_unstemmed | Changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic meridional heat transport in a RCP 8.5 climate projection in MPI-ESM |
| title_short | Changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic meridional heat transport in a RCP 8.5 climate projection in MPI-ESM |
| title_sort | changes in the seasonal cycle of the atlantic meridional heat transport in a rcp 8 5 climate projection in mpi esm |
| url | http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/8/129/2017/esd-8-129-2017.pdf |
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