Scenario simulation of land use change and carbon storage response in Henan Province, China: 1990–2050
The carbon storage service of terrestrial ecosystems has an veritable impact on the global carbon cycle and, in turn, on global climate change. Hence, both assessing and predicting the impact of land use changes on carbon storage are necessary to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate climate change....
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23008026 |
| _version_ | 1797683121437540352 |
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| author | Liyao Fan Tianyi Cai Qian Wen Jing Han Shuxue Wang Junhao Wang Chaohui Yin |
| author_facet | Liyao Fan Tianyi Cai Qian Wen Jing Han Shuxue Wang Junhao Wang Chaohui Yin |
| author_sort | Liyao Fan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The carbon storage service of terrestrial ecosystems has an veritable impact on the global carbon cycle and, in turn, on global climate change. Hence, both assessing and predicting the impact of land use changes on carbon storage are necessary to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate climate change. Therefore, using integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model with remote sensing data, this study systematically analyzes the land use/cover change (LUCC) and the carbon storage response characteristics of land types in Henan Province, China in the 1990–2020 period. The study also uses patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to predict the LUCC and carbon storage in Henan Province from 2023 to 2050 under different scenarios, including Business as Usual (BAU), Ecological Conservation (EC), and Urban Development (UD) scenarios. The following results are noted: (1) The LUCC mainly comprises the conversion of farmland to construction land. Presently, Henan Province’s carbon storage is found to have decreased by 339.72 Tg due to LUCC, which is characterized as “high in the west and low in the east.” (2) Regarding the three aforementioned scenarios, the province’s construction land is predicted to increase to its greatest extent under the UD scenario. Under the EC scenario, its woodland and farmland areas will be effectively protected. Therefore, the highest level of carbon reserves will likely be found in the EC scenario, followed by that in the BAU scenario, while the lowest level of carbon reserves should be seen in the UD scenario. The carbon reserves of Henan Province in 2050 will be 312.07 Tg, 233.43 Tg, and 394.49 Tg lower than that in 2020 under the BAU, EC, and UD scenarios, respectively. In sum, this study provides the scientific basis of the decisions aimed at the facilitation of low-carbon development, the optimal utilization of land spaces, and the development of an ecological civilization in Henan Province. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T00:09:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3114fe526c05448f85ffebabf470ac8c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T00:09:56Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj.art-3114fe526c05448f85ffebabf470ac8c2023-09-16T05:29:35ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2023-10-01154110660Scenario simulation of land use change and carbon storage response in Henan Province, China: 1990–2050Liyao Fan0Tianyi Cai1Qian Wen2Jing Han3Shuxue Wang4Junhao Wang5Chaohui Yin6College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China; Center for Land and Rural Sustainable Development Research, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, ChinaCollege of Landscape Architecture and Art, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, ChinaCollege of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China; Center for Land and Rural Sustainable Development Research, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China; Corresponding author at: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China.College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China; Center for Land and Rural Sustainable Development Research, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, ChinaCollege of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China; Center for Land and Rural Sustainable Development Research, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, ChinaHenan Jinchen Information Technology Co., Ltd, Zhengzhou 450047, ChinaCollege of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China; Center for Land and Rural Sustainable Development Research, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, ChinaThe carbon storage service of terrestrial ecosystems has an veritable impact on the global carbon cycle and, in turn, on global climate change. Hence, both assessing and predicting the impact of land use changes on carbon storage are necessary to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate climate change. Therefore, using integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model with remote sensing data, this study systematically analyzes the land use/cover change (LUCC) and the carbon storage response characteristics of land types in Henan Province, China in the 1990–2020 period. The study also uses patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to predict the LUCC and carbon storage in Henan Province from 2023 to 2050 under different scenarios, including Business as Usual (BAU), Ecological Conservation (EC), and Urban Development (UD) scenarios. The following results are noted: (1) The LUCC mainly comprises the conversion of farmland to construction land. Presently, Henan Province’s carbon storage is found to have decreased by 339.72 Tg due to LUCC, which is characterized as “high in the west and low in the east.” (2) Regarding the three aforementioned scenarios, the province’s construction land is predicted to increase to its greatest extent under the UD scenario. Under the EC scenario, its woodland and farmland areas will be effectively protected. Therefore, the highest level of carbon reserves will likely be found in the EC scenario, followed by that in the BAU scenario, while the lowest level of carbon reserves should be seen in the UD scenario. The carbon reserves of Henan Province in 2050 will be 312.07 Tg, 233.43 Tg, and 394.49 Tg lower than that in 2020 under the BAU, EC, and UD scenarios, respectively. In sum, this study provides the scientific basis of the decisions aimed at the facilitation of low-carbon development, the optimal utilization of land spaces, and the development of an ecological civilization in Henan Province.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23008026Carbon storageHenan ProvinceInVEST modelLUCCPLUS model |
| spellingShingle | Liyao Fan Tianyi Cai Qian Wen Jing Han Shuxue Wang Junhao Wang Chaohui Yin Scenario simulation of land use change and carbon storage response in Henan Province, China: 1990–2050 Ecological Indicators Carbon storage Henan Province InVEST model LUCC PLUS model |
| title | Scenario simulation of land use change and carbon storage response in Henan Province, China: 1990–2050 |
| title_full | Scenario simulation of land use change and carbon storage response in Henan Province, China: 1990–2050 |
| title_fullStr | Scenario simulation of land use change and carbon storage response in Henan Province, China: 1990–2050 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Scenario simulation of land use change and carbon storage response in Henan Province, China: 1990–2050 |
| title_short | Scenario simulation of land use change and carbon storage response in Henan Province, China: 1990–2050 |
| title_sort | scenario simulation of land use change and carbon storage response in henan province china 1990 2050 |
| topic | Carbon storage Henan Province InVEST model LUCC PLUS model |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23008026 |
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