Modelling the potential distribution and shifts of three varieties of Stipa tianschanica in the eastern Eurasian Steppe under multiple climate change scenarios
The issue of climatic change and its strong influence on species distributions is currently of great interest in the field of biogeography. In this study, three varieties of Stipa tianschanica (S. tianschanica var. tianschanica, S. tianschanica var. gobica and S. tianschanica var. klemenzii), which...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2018-10-01
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| Series: | Global Ecology and Conservation |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989418303913 |
| _version_ | 1811214921626550272 |
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| author | Yuanjun Zhu Wei Wei Hao Li Baizhu Wang Xiaohui Yang Yanshu Liu |
| author_facet | Yuanjun Zhu Wei Wei Hao Li Baizhu Wang Xiaohui Yang Yanshu Liu |
| author_sort | Yuanjun Zhu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The issue of climatic change and its strong influence on species distributions is currently of great interest in the field of biogeography. In this study, three varieties of Stipa tianschanica (S. tianschanica var. tianschanica, S. tianschanica var. gobica and S. tianschanica var. klemenzii), which are high-quality forage for local rangeland, were selected from the desert steppe of the Mongolian Plateau and Central Asia. Based on high-resolution environmental data for past, current and future climate scenarios, we modelled the suitable habitat in 6 periods for S. tianschanica var. tianschanica, S. tianschanica var. gobica and S. tianschanica var. klemenzii using MaxEnt and GIS technology; evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution; and identified distribution shifts under different climate change scenarios. Our results showed that temperature seasonality (bio04) and precipitation in October and November (pre10, pre11) were the most critical factors shaping the distribution of S. tianschanica var. tianschanica, while precipitation in June, August and December (pre06, pre08 and pre12) were the most critical for shaping the distributions of S. tianschanica var. gobica and S. tianschanica var. klemenzii. The suitable future habitat for the three species tended to increase under the RCP2.6 scenario and to decrease to varying degrees in the desert steppe in the RCP8.5 scenario in 2070 as global warming intensified. Overall, the size of the core distribution area and direction of the core distributional shifts are different for each species over the 6 periods. Our prediction showed that although these three varieties belong to the same species, their survival strategy and adaptability are different when faced with the same climate change scenarios. The projected spatial and temporal patterns of the distribution range shifts for S. tianschanica var. tianschanica, S. tianschanica var. gobica and S. tianschanica var. klemenzii will be useful references in developing desert steppe management and conservation strategies for these three ecologically important varieties. Keywords: Species distribution models (SDMs), Maximum entropy (MaxEnt), Stipa tianschanica var. tianschanica, Stipa tianschanica var. gobica, Stipa tianschanica var. klemenzii, Bioclimatic variables, Core size and shift |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T06:13:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3157fbeb8e89451880eff81c32802892 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2351-9894 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T06:13:34Z |
| publishDate | 2018-10-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Global Ecology and Conservation |
| spelling | doaj.art-3157fbeb8e89451880eff81c328028922022-12-22T03:44:36ZengElsevierGlobal Ecology and Conservation2351-98942018-10-0116Modelling the potential distribution and shifts of three varieties of Stipa tianschanica in the eastern Eurasian Steppe under multiple climate change scenariosYuanjun Zhu0Wei Wei1Hao Li2Baizhu Wang3Xiaohui Yang4Yanshu Liu5Institute of Desertification Studies, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, ChinaSchool of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, ChinaSchool of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, ChinaInstitute of Desertification Studies, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, ChinaInstitute of Desertification Studies, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, China; Corresponding author.Institute of Desertification Studies, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, China; Corresponding author.The issue of climatic change and its strong influence on species distributions is currently of great interest in the field of biogeography. In this study, three varieties of Stipa tianschanica (S. tianschanica var. tianschanica, S. tianschanica var. gobica and S. tianschanica var. klemenzii), which are high-quality forage for local rangeland, were selected from the desert steppe of the Mongolian Plateau and Central Asia. Based on high-resolution environmental data for past, current and future climate scenarios, we modelled the suitable habitat in 6 periods for S. tianschanica var. tianschanica, S. tianschanica var. gobica and S. tianschanica var. klemenzii using MaxEnt and GIS technology; evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution; and identified distribution shifts under different climate change scenarios. Our results showed that temperature seasonality (bio04) and precipitation in October and November (pre10, pre11) were the most critical factors shaping the distribution of S. tianschanica var. tianschanica, while precipitation in June, August and December (pre06, pre08 and pre12) were the most critical for shaping the distributions of S. tianschanica var. gobica and S. tianschanica var. klemenzii. The suitable future habitat for the three species tended to increase under the RCP2.6 scenario and to decrease to varying degrees in the desert steppe in the RCP8.5 scenario in 2070 as global warming intensified. Overall, the size of the core distribution area and direction of the core distributional shifts are different for each species over the 6 periods. Our prediction showed that although these three varieties belong to the same species, their survival strategy and adaptability are different when faced with the same climate change scenarios. The projected spatial and temporal patterns of the distribution range shifts for S. tianschanica var. tianschanica, S. tianschanica var. gobica and S. tianschanica var. klemenzii will be useful references in developing desert steppe management and conservation strategies for these three ecologically important varieties. Keywords: Species distribution models (SDMs), Maximum entropy (MaxEnt), Stipa tianschanica var. tianschanica, Stipa tianschanica var. gobica, Stipa tianschanica var. klemenzii, Bioclimatic variables, Core size and shifthttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989418303913 |
| spellingShingle | Yuanjun Zhu Wei Wei Hao Li Baizhu Wang Xiaohui Yang Yanshu Liu Modelling the potential distribution and shifts of three varieties of Stipa tianschanica in the eastern Eurasian Steppe under multiple climate change scenarios Global Ecology and Conservation |
| title | Modelling the potential distribution and shifts of three varieties of Stipa tianschanica in the eastern Eurasian Steppe under multiple climate change scenarios |
| title_full | Modelling the potential distribution and shifts of three varieties of Stipa tianschanica in the eastern Eurasian Steppe under multiple climate change scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the potential distribution and shifts of three varieties of Stipa tianschanica in the eastern Eurasian Steppe under multiple climate change scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the potential distribution and shifts of three varieties of Stipa tianschanica in the eastern Eurasian Steppe under multiple climate change scenarios |
| title_short | Modelling the potential distribution and shifts of three varieties of Stipa tianschanica in the eastern Eurasian Steppe under multiple climate change scenarios |
| title_sort | modelling the potential distribution and shifts of three varieties of stipa tianschanica in the eastern eurasian steppe under multiple climate change scenarios |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989418303913 |
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