Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations
Projections of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) have the potential to inform stakeholders about accessibility to the region, but are currently rather uncertain. The latest suite of CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) produce a wide range of simulated SIT in the historical period (1979–2014) and exhibit...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2015-12-01
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| Series: | The Cryosphere |
| Online Access: | http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/2237/2015/tc-9-2237-2015.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818205622651322368 |
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| author | N. Melia K. Haines E. Hawkins |
| author_facet | N. Melia K. Haines E. Hawkins |
| author_sort | N. Melia |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Projections of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) have the potential to inform
stakeholders about accessibility to the region, but are currently rather
uncertain. The latest suite of CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) produce a
wide range of simulated SIT in the historical period (1979–2014) and
exhibit various biases when compared with the Pan-Arctic Ice–Ocean Modelling
and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) sea ice reanalysis. We present a new method
to constrain such GCM simulations of SIT via a statistical bias correction
technique. The bias correction successfully constrains the spatial SIT
distribution and temporal variability in the CMIP5 projections whilst
retaining the climatic fluctuations from individual ensemble members. The
bias correction acts to reduce the spread in projections of SIT and reveals
the significant contributions of climate internal variability in the first
half of the century and of scenario uncertainty from the mid-century onwards.
The projected date of ice-free conditions in the Arctic under the RCP8.5
high emission scenario occurs in the 2050s, which is a decade earlier than
without the bias correction, with potentially significant implications for
stakeholders in the Arctic such as the shipping industry. The bias
correction methodology developed could be similarly applied to other
variables to reduce spread in climate projections more generally. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T04:00:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-317dc9f3d8474ed5810f34787bcdb016 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1994-0416 1994-0424 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T04:00:04Z |
| publishDate | 2015-12-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Cryosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-317dc9f3d8474ed5810f34787bcdb0162022-12-22T00:39:05ZengCopernicus PublicationsThe Cryosphere1994-04161994-04242015-12-01962237225110.5194/tc-9-2237-2015Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulationsN. Melia0K. Haines1E. Hawkins2Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UKNational Centre for Earth Observation, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UKNCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UKProjections of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) have the potential to inform stakeholders about accessibility to the region, but are currently rather uncertain. The latest suite of CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) produce a wide range of simulated SIT in the historical period (1979–2014) and exhibit various biases when compared with the Pan-Arctic Ice–Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) sea ice reanalysis. We present a new method to constrain such GCM simulations of SIT via a statistical bias correction technique. The bias correction successfully constrains the spatial SIT distribution and temporal variability in the CMIP5 projections whilst retaining the climatic fluctuations from individual ensemble members. The bias correction acts to reduce the spread in projections of SIT and reveals the significant contributions of climate internal variability in the first half of the century and of scenario uncertainty from the mid-century onwards. The projected date of ice-free conditions in the Arctic under the RCP8.5 high emission scenario occurs in the 2050s, which is a decade earlier than without the bias correction, with potentially significant implications for stakeholders in the Arctic such as the shipping industry. The bias correction methodology developed could be similarly applied to other variables to reduce spread in climate projections more generally.http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/2237/2015/tc-9-2237-2015.pdf |
| spellingShingle | N. Melia K. Haines E. Hawkins Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations The Cryosphere |
| title | Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations |
| title_full | Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations |
| title_fullStr | Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations |
| title_short | Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations |
| title_sort | improved arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias corrected cmip5 simulations |
| url | http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/2237/2015/tc-9-2237-2015.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nmelia improvedarcticseaicethicknessprojectionsusingbiascorrectedcmip5simulations AT khaines improvedarcticseaicethicknessprojectionsusingbiascorrectedcmip5simulations AT ehawkins improvedarcticseaicethicknessprojectionsusingbiascorrectedcmip5simulations |