Projecting Future Climate Change-Mediated Impacts in Three Paralytic Shellfish Toxins-Producing Dinoflagellate Species
Toxin-producing microalgae present a significant environmental risk for ecosystems and human societies when they reach concentrations that affect other aquatic organisms or human health. Harmful algal blooms (HAB) have been linked to mass wildlife die-offs and human food poisoning episodes, and clim...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Biology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2079-7737/11/10/1424 |
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| author | Francisco O. Borges Vanessa M. Lopes Ana Amorim Catarina F. Santos Pedro Reis Costa Rui Rosa |
| author_facet | Francisco O. Borges Vanessa M. Lopes Ana Amorim Catarina F. Santos Pedro Reis Costa Rui Rosa |
| author_sort | Francisco O. Borges |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Toxin-producing microalgae present a significant environmental risk for ecosystems and human societies when they reach concentrations that affect other aquatic organisms or human health. Harmful algal blooms (HAB) have been linked to mass wildlife die-offs and human food poisoning episodes, and climate change has the potential to alter the frequency, magnitude, and geographical extent of such events. Thus, a framework of species distribution models (SDMs), employing MaxEnt modeling, was used to project changes in habitat suitability and distribution of three key paralytic shellfish toxin (PST)-producing dinoflagellate species (i.e., <i>Alexandrium catenella</i>, <i>A. minutum</i>, and <i>Gymnodinium catenatum</i>), up to 2050 and 2100, across four representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP-2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5; CMIP5). Despite slightly different responses at the regional level, the global habitat suitability has decreased for all the species, leading to an overall contraction in their tropical and sub-tropical ranges, while considerable expansions are projected in higher latitudes, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting poleward distributional shifts. Such trends were exacerbated with increasing RCP severity. Yet, further research is required, with a greater assemblage of environmental predictors and improved occurrence datasets, to gain a more holistic understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on PST-producing species. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T20:40:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-31d178454d1c444eb1109ede76065b34 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2079-7737 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T20:40:35Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Biology |
| spelling | doaj.art-31d178454d1c444eb1109ede76065b342023-11-23T22:59:21ZengMDPI AGBiology2079-77372022-09-011110142410.3390/biology11101424Projecting Future Climate Change-Mediated Impacts in Three Paralytic Shellfish Toxins-Producing Dinoflagellate SpeciesFrancisco O. Borges0Vanessa M. Lopes1Ana Amorim2Catarina F. Santos3Pedro Reis Costa4Rui Rosa5MARE—Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre & ARNET—Aquatic Research Network, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, PortugalMARE—Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre & ARNET—Aquatic Research Network, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, PortugalMARE—Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre & ARNET—Aquatic Research Network, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, PortugalMARE—Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre & ARNET—Aquatic Research Network, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, PortugalPortuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA, I.P.), 1749-077 Lisboa, PortugalMARE—Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre & ARNET—Aquatic Research Network, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, PortugalToxin-producing microalgae present a significant environmental risk for ecosystems and human societies when they reach concentrations that affect other aquatic organisms or human health. Harmful algal blooms (HAB) have been linked to mass wildlife die-offs and human food poisoning episodes, and climate change has the potential to alter the frequency, magnitude, and geographical extent of such events. Thus, a framework of species distribution models (SDMs), employing MaxEnt modeling, was used to project changes in habitat suitability and distribution of three key paralytic shellfish toxin (PST)-producing dinoflagellate species (i.e., <i>Alexandrium catenella</i>, <i>A. minutum</i>, and <i>Gymnodinium catenatum</i>), up to 2050 and 2100, across four representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP-2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5; CMIP5). Despite slightly different responses at the regional level, the global habitat suitability has decreased for all the species, leading to an overall contraction in their tropical and sub-tropical ranges, while considerable expansions are projected in higher latitudes, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting poleward distributional shifts. Such trends were exacerbated with increasing RCP severity. Yet, further research is required, with a greater assemblage of environmental predictors and improved occurrence datasets, to gain a more holistic understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on PST-producing species.https://www.mdpi.com/2079-7737/11/10/1424biogeographyclimate changespecies distribution modelsharmful algal bloomsparalytic shellfish poisoning |
| spellingShingle | Francisco O. Borges Vanessa M. Lopes Ana Amorim Catarina F. Santos Pedro Reis Costa Rui Rosa Projecting Future Climate Change-Mediated Impacts in Three Paralytic Shellfish Toxins-Producing Dinoflagellate Species Biology biogeography climate change species distribution models harmful algal blooms paralytic shellfish poisoning |
| title | Projecting Future Climate Change-Mediated Impacts in Three Paralytic Shellfish Toxins-Producing Dinoflagellate Species |
| title_full | Projecting Future Climate Change-Mediated Impacts in Three Paralytic Shellfish Toxins-Producing Dinoflagellate Species |
| title_fullStr | Projecting Future Climate Change-Mediated Impacts in Three Paralytic Shellfish Toxins-Producing Dinoflagellate Species |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projecting Future Climate Change-Mediated Impacts in Three Paralytic Shellfish Toxins-Producing Dinoflagellate Species |
| title_short | Projecting Future Climate Change-Mediated Impacts in Three Paralytic Shellfish Toxins-Producing Dinoflagellate Species |
| title_sort | projecting future climate change mediated impacts in three paralytic shellfish toxins producing dinoflagellate species |
| topic | biogeography climate change species distribution models harmful algal blooms paralytic shellfish poisoning |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2079-7737/11/10/1424 |
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