Modeling undetected poliovirus circulation following the 2022 outbreak in the United States
ABSTRACTBackground New York State (NYS) reported a polio case (June 2022) and outbreak of imported type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) (last positive wastewater detection in February 2023), for which uncertainty remains about potential ongoing undetected transmission.Research Desi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Expert Review of Vaccines |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/14760584.2023.2299401 |
| _version_ | 1797366189498826752 |
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| author | Dominika A. Kalkowska Kamran Badizadegan Janell A. Routh Cara C. Burns Eli S. Rosenberg I. Ravi Brenner Jane R. Zucker Marisa Langdon-Embry Kimberly M. Thompson |
| author_facet | Dominika A. Kalkowska Kamran Badizadegan Janell A. Routh Cara C. Burns Eli S. Rosenberg I. Ravi Brenner Jane R. Zucker Marisa Langdon-Embry Kimberly M. Thompson |
| author_sort | Dominika A. Kalkowska |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACTBackground New York State (NYS) reported a polio case (June 2022) and outbreak of imported type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) (last positive wastewater detection in February 2023), for which uncertainty remains about potential ongoing undetected transmission.Research Design and Methods Extending a prior deterministic model, we apply an established stochastic modeling approach to characterize the confidence about no circulation (CNC) of cVDPV2 as a function of time since the last detected signal of transmission (i.e. poliovirus positive acute flaccid myelitis case or wastewater sample).Results With the surveillance coverage for the NYS population majority and its focus on outbreak counties, modeling suggests a high CNC (95%) within 3–10 months of the last positive surveillance signal, depending on surveillance sensitivity and population mixing patterns. Uncertainty about surveillance sensitivity implies longer durations required to achieve higher CNC.Conclusions In populations that maintain high overall immunization coverage with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), rare polio cases may occur in un(der)-vaccinated individuals. Modeling demonstrates the unlikeliness of type 2 outbreaks reestablishing endemic transmission or resulting in large absolute numbers of paralytic cases. Achieving and maintaining high immunization coverage with IPV remains the most effective measure to prevent outbreaks and shorten the duration of imported poliovirus transmission. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T17:00:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-31f2494c0ccf4136a5b7953143bd9224 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1476-0584 1744-8395 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T17:00:43Z |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Expert Review of Vaccines |
| spelling | doaj.art-31f2494c0ccf4136a5b7953143bd92242024-01-04T13:22:00ZengTaylor & Francis GroupExpert Review of Vaccines1476-05841744-83952024-12-0123118619510.1080/14760584.2023.2299401Modeling undetected poliovirus circulation following the 2022 outbreak in the United StatesDominika A. Kalkowska0Kamran Badizadegan1Janell A. Routh2Cara C. Burns3Eli S. Rosenberg4I. Ravi Brenner5Jane R. Zucker6Marisa Langdon-Embry7Kimberly M. Thompson8Kid Risk, Inc, Orlando, FL, USAKid Risk, Inc, Orlando, FL, USADivision of Viral Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USADivision of Viral Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USAOffice of Public Health, New York State Department of Health, Albany, NY, USAOffice of Public Health, New York State Department of Health, Albany, NY, USANew York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, NY, USANew York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, NY, USAKid Risk, Inc, Orlando, FL, USAABSTRACTBackground New York State (NYS) reported a polio case (June 2022) and outbreak of imported type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) (last positive wastewater detection in February 2023), for which uncertainty remains about potential ongoing undetected transmission.Research Design and Methods Extending a prior deterministic model, we apply an established stochastic modeling approach to characterize the confidence about no circulation (CNC) of cVDPV2 as a function of time since the last detected signal of transmission (i.e. poliovirus positive acute flaccid myelitis case or wastewater sample).Results With the surveillance coverage for the NYS population majority and its focus on outbreak counties, modeling suggests a high CNC (95%) within 3–10 months of the last positive surveillance signal, depending on surveillance sensitivity and population mixing patterns. Uncertainty about surveillance sensitivity implies longer durations required to achieve higher CNC.Conclusions In populations that maintain high overall immunization coverage with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), rare polio cases may occur in un(der)-vaccinated individuals. Modeling demonstrates the unlikeliness of type 2 outbreaks reestablishing endemic transmission or resulting in large absolute numbers of paralytic cases. Achieving and maintaining high immunization coverage with IPV remains the most effective measure to prevent outbreaks and shorten the duration of imported poliovirus transmission.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/14760584.2023.2299401Polioeradicationdynamic modelingoutbreak responseIPV |
| spellingShingle | Dominika A. Kalkowska Kamran Badizadegan Janell A. Routh Cara C. Burns Eli S. Rosenberg I. Ravi Brenner Jane R. Zucker Marisa Langdon-Embry Kimberly M. Thompson Modeling undetected poliovirus circulation following the 2022 outbreak in the United States Expert Review of Vaccines Polio eradication dynamic modeling outbreak response IPV |
| title | Modeling undetected poliovirus circulation following the 2022 outbreak in the United States |
| title_full | Modeling undetected poliovirus circulation following the 2022 outbreak in the United States |
| title_fullStr | Modeling undetected poliovirus circulation following the 2022 outbreak in the United States |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling undetected poliovirus circulation following the 2022 outbreak in the United States |
| title_short | Modeling undetected poliovirus circulation following the 2022 outbreak in the United States |
| title_sort | modeling undetected poliovirus circulation following the 2022 outbreak in the united states |
| topic | Polio eradication dynamic modeling outbreak response IPV |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/14760584.2023.2299401 |
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