Accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss Under High Greenhouse Gas Forcing as Simulated by the Coupled CESM2.1‐CISM2.1
Abstract The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is now losing mass at a rate of 0.7 mm of sea level rise (SLR) per year. Here we explore future GrIS evolution and interactions with global and regional climate under high greenhouse gas forcing with the Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2.1), whic...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2020-10-01
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| Series: | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002031 |
| _version_ | 1819086708412514304 |
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| author | Laura Muntjewerf Raymond Sellevold Miren Vizcaino Carolina Ernani da Silva Michele Petrini Katherine Thayer‐Calder Meike D. W. Scherrenberg Sarah L. Bradley Caroline A. Katsman Jeremy Fyke William H. Lipscomb Marcus Lofverstrom William J. Sacks |
| author_facet | Laura Muntjewerf Raymond Sellevold Miren Vizcaino Carolina Ernani da Silva Michele Petrini Katherine Thayer‐Calder Meike D. W. Scherrenberg Sarah L. Bradley Caroline A. Katsman Jeremy Fyke William H. Lipscomb Marcus Lofverstrom William J. Sacks |
| author_sort | Laura Muntjewerf |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is now losing mass at a rate of 0.7 mm of sea level rise (SLR) per year. Here we explore future GrIS evolution and interactions with global and regional climate under high greenhouse gas forcing with the Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2.1), which includes an interactive ice sheet component (the Community Ice Sheet Model v2.1 [CISM2.1]) and an advanced energy balance‐based calculation of surface melt. We run an idealized 350‐year scenario in which atmospheric CO2 concentration increases by 1% annually until reaching four times pre‐industrial values at year 140, after which it is held fixed. The global mean temperature increases by 5.2 and 8.5 K by years 131–150 and 331–350, respectively. The projected GrIS contribution to global mean SLR is 107 mm by year 150 and 1,140 mm by year 350. The rate of SLR increases from 2 mm yr−1 at year 150 to almost 7 mm yr−1 by year 350. The accelerated mass loss is caused by rapidly increasing surface melt as the ablation area expands, with associated albedo feedback and increased sensible and latent heat fluxes. This acceleration occurs for a global warming of approximately 4.2 K with respect to pre‐industrial and is in part explained by the quasi‐parabolic shape of the ice sheet, which favors rapid expansion of the ablation area as it approaches the interior “plateau.” |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T21:24:33Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-32603e9c90954d3292344d3295bd263c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1942-2466 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T21:24:33Z |
| publishDate | 2020-10-01 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
| spelling | doaj.art-32603e9c90954d3292344d3295bd263c2022-12-21T18:49:47ZengAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems1942-24662020-10-011210n/an/a10.1029/2019MS002031Accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss Under High Greenhouse Gas Forcing as Simulated by the Coupled CESM2.1‐CISM2.1Laura Muntjewerf0Raymond Sellevold1Miren Vizcaino2Carolina Ernani da Silva3Michele Petrini4Katherine Thayer‐Calder5Meike D. W. Scherrenberg6Sarah L. Bradley7Caroline A. Katsman8Jeremy Fyke9William H. Lipscomb10Marcus Lofverstrom11William J. Sacks12Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing Delft University of Technology Delft The NetherlandsDepartment of Geoscience and Remote Sensing Delft University of Technology Delft The NetherlandsDepartment of Geoscience and Remote Sensing Delft University of Technology Delft The NetherlandsDepartment of Geoscience and Remote Sensing Delft University of Technology Delft The NetherlandsDepartment of Geoscience and Remote Sensing Delft University of Technology Delft The NetherlandsClimate and Global Dynamics Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USADepartment of Geoscience and Remote Sensing Delft University of Technology Delft The NetherlandsDepartment of Geography The University of Sheffield Sheffield UKDepartment of Hydraulic Engineering Delft University of Technology Delft The NetherlandsAssociated Engineering Group Ltd. Calgary CanadaClimate and Global Dynamics Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USADepartment of Geosciences University of Arizona Tucson AZ USAClimate and Global Dynamics Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USAAbstract The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is now losing mass at a rate of 0.7 mm of sea level rise (SLR) per year. Here we explore future GrIS evolution and interactions with global and regional climate under high greenhouse gas forcing with the Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2.1), which includes an interactive ice sheet component (the Community Ice Sheet Model v2.1 [CISM2.1]) and an advanced energy balance‐based calculation of surface melt. We run an idealized 350‐year scenario in which atmospheric CO2 concentration increases by 1% annually until reaching four times pre‐industrial values at year 140, after which it is held fixed. The global mean temperature increases by 5.2 and 8.5 K by years 131–150 and 331–350, respectively. The projected GrIS contribution to global mean SLR is 107 mm by year 150 and 1,140 mm by year 350. The rate of SLR increases from 2 mm yr−1 at year 150 to almost 7 mm yr−1 by year 350. The accelerated mass loss is caused by rapidly increasing surface melt as the ablation area expands, with associated albedo feedback and increased sensible and latent heat fluxes. This acceleration occurs for a global warming of approximately 4.2 K with respect to pre‐industrial and is in part explained by the quasi‐parabolic shape of the ice sheet, which favors rapid expansion of the ablation area as it approaches the interior “plateau.”https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002031Greenland ice sheetsea level risesurface mass balanceanthropogenic climate change |
| spellingShingle | Laura Muntjewerf Raymond Sellevold Miren Vizcaino Carolina Ernani da Silva Michele Petrini Katherine Thayer‐Calder Meike D. W. Scherrenberg Sarah L. Bradley Caroline A. Katsman Jeremy Fyke William H. Lipscomb Marcus Lofverstrom William J. Sacks Accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss Under High Greenhouse Gas Forcing as Simulated by the Coupled CESM2.1‐CISM2.1 Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Greenland ice sheet sea level rise surface mass balance anthropogenic climate change |
| title | Accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss Under High Greenhouse Gas Forcing as Simulated by the Coupled CESM2.1‐CISM2.1 |
| title_full | Accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss Under High Greenhouse Gas Forcing as Simulated by the Coupled CESM2.1‐CISM2.1 |
| title_fullStr | Accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss Under High Greenhouse Gas Forcing as Simulated by the Coupled CESM2.1‐CISM2.1 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss Under High Greenhouse Gas Forcing as Simulated by the Coupled CESM2.1‐CISM2.1 |
| title_short | Accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss Under High Greenhouse Gas Forcing as Simulated by the Coupled CESM2.1‐CISM2.1 |
| title_sort | accelerated greenland ice sheet mass loss under high greenhouse gas forcing as simulated by the coupled cesm2 1 cism2 1 |
| topic | Greenland ice sheet sea level rise surface mass balance anthropogenic climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002031 |
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