Cycle Threshold Values as Indication of Increasing SARS-CoV-2 New Variants, England, 2020–2022
Early detection of increased infections or new variants of SARS-CoV-2 is critical for public health response. To determine whether cycle threshold (Ct) data from PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 could serve as an early indicator of epidemic growth, we analyzed daily mean Ct values in England, UK, by gene t...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
2023-10-01
|
| Series: | Emerging Infectious Diseases |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/29/10/23-0030_article |
| _version_ | 1797678540387254272 |
|---|---|
| author | Rebecca E. Harrison Ahmed Hamada Nujcharee Haswell Aigul Groves Karina-Doris Vihta Kerry Cella Sarah Garner Ann Sarah Walker Anna C. Seale |
| author_facet | Rebecca E. Harrison Ahmed Hamada Nujcharee Haswell Aigul Groves Karina-Doris Vihta Kerry Cella Sarah Garner Ann Sarah Walker Anna C. Seale |
| author_sort | Rebecca E. Harrison |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
Early detection of increased infections or new variants of SARS-CoV-2 is critical for public health response. To determine whether cycle threshold (Ct) data from PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 could serve as an early indicator of epidemic growth, we analyzed daily mean Ct values in England, UK, by gene target and used iterative sequential regression to detect break points in mean Ct values (and positive test counts). To monitor the epidemic in England, we continued those analyses in real time. During September 2020–January 2022, a total of 7,611,153 positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test results with Ct data were reported. Spike (S) gene target (S+/S−)–specific mean Ct values decreased 6–29 days before positive test counts increased, and S-gene Ct values provided early indication of increasing new variants (Delta and Omicron). Our approach was beneficial in the context of the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and can be used to support future infectious disease monitoring.
|
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T23:01:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-32d68202be374053bc399897d44abe92 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1080-6040 1080-6059 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T23:01:19Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Emerging Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-32d68202be374053bc399897d44abe922023-09-21T14:51:57ZengCenters for Disease Control and PreventionEmerging Infectious Diseases1080-60401080-60592023-10-0129102024203110.3201/eid2910.230030Cycle Threshold Values as Indication of Increasing SARS-CoV-2 New Variants, England, 2020–2022Rebecca E. HarrisonAhmed HamadaNujcharee HaswellAigul GrovesKarina-Doris VihtaKerry CellaSarah GarnerAnn Sarah WalkerAnna C. Seale Early detection of increased infections or new variants of SARS-CoV-2 is critical for public health response. To determine whether cycle threshold (Ct) data from PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 could serve as an early indicator of epidemic growth, we analyzed daily mean Ct values in England, UK, by gene target and used iterative sequential regression to detect break points in mean Ct values (and positive test counts). To monitor the epidemic in England, we continued those analyses in real time. During September 2020–January 2022, a total of 7,611,153 positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test results with Ct data were reported. Spike (S) gene target (S+/S−)–specific mean Ct values decreased 6–29 days before positive test counts increased, and S-gene Ct values provided early indication of increasing new variants (Delta and Omicron). Our approach was beneficial in the context of the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and can be used to support future infectious disease monitoring. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/29/10/23-0030_articleCOVID-192019 novel coronavirus diseasecoronavirus diseasesevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2SARS-CoV-2viruses |
| spellingShingle | Rebecca E. Harrison Ahmed Hamada Nujcharee Haswell Aigul Groves Karina-Doris Vihta Kerry Cella Sarah Garner Ann Sarah Walker Anna C. Seale Cycle Threshold Values as Indication of Increasing SARS-CoV-2 New Variants, England, 2020–2022 Emerging Infectious Diseases COVID-19 2019 novel coronavirus disease coronavirus disease severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 SARS-CoV-2 viruses |
| title | Cycle Threshold Values as Indication of Increasing SARS-CoV-2 New Variants, England, 2020–2022 |
| title_full | Cycle Threshold Values as Indication of Increasing SARS-CoV-2 New Variants, England, 2020–2022 |
| title_fullStr | Cycle Threshold Values as Indication of Increasing SARS-CoV-2 New Variants, England, 2020–2022 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Cycle Threshold Values as Indication of Increasing SARS-CoV-2 New Variants, England, 2020–2022 |
| title_short | Cycle Threshold Values as Indication of Increasing SARS-CoV-2 New Variants, England, 2020–2022 |
| title_sort | cycle threshold values as indication of increasing sars cov 2 new variants england 2020 2022 |
| topic | COVID-19 2019 novel coronavirus disease coronavirus disease severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 SARS-CoV-2 viruses |
| url | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/29/10/23-0030_article |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rebeccaeharrison cyclethresholdvaluesasindicationofincreasingsarscov2newvariantsengland20202022 AT ahmedhamada cyclethresholdvaluesasindicationofincreasingsarscov2newvariantsengland20202022 AT nujchareehaswell cyclethresholdvaluesasindicationofincreasingsarscov2newvariantsengland20202022 AT aigulgroves cyclethresholdvaluesasindicationofincreasingsarscov2newvariantsengland20202022 AT karinadorisvihta cyclethresholdvaluesasindicationofincreasingsarscov2newvariantsengland20202022 AT kerrycella cyclethresholdvaluesasindicationofincreasingsarscov2newvariantsengland20202022 AT sarahgarner cyclethresholdvaluesasindicationofincreasingsarscov2newvariantsengland20202022 AT annsarahwalker cyclethresholdvaluesasindicationofincreasingsarscov2newvariantsengland20202022 AT annacseale cyclethresholdvaluesasindicationofincreasingsarscov2newvariantsengland20202022 |