Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?
In light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate services for flood preparation, we question whether seasonal rainfall forecasts should indeed be used as indicators of the likelihood of flooding. Here, we investigate the primary indicators of flooding at the seasonal timesca...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2017-09-01
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| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/4517/2017/hess-21-4517-2017.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818675418342883328 |
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| author | E. Coughlan de Perez E. Coughlan de Perez E. Coughlan de Perez E. Stephens K. Bischiniotis M. van Aalst M. van Aalst B. van den Hurk S. Mason H. Nissan F. Pappenberger |
| author_facet | E. Coughlan de Perez E. Coughlan de Perez E. Coughlan de Perez E. Stephens K. Bischiniotis M. van Aalst M. van Aalst B. van den Hurk S. Mason H. Nissan F. Pappenberger |
| author_sort | E. Coughlan de Perez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate
services for flood preparation, we question whether seasonal rainfall
forecasts should indeed be used as indicators of the likelihood of flooding.
Here, we investigate the primary indicators of flooding at the seasonal
timescale across sub-Saharan Africa. Given the sparsity of hydrological
observations, we input bias-corrected reanalysis rainfall into the Global
Flood Awareness System to identify seasonal indicators of floodiness. Results
demonstrate that in some regions of western, central, and eastern Africa with
typically wet climates, even a perfect tercile forecast of seasonal total
rainfall would provide little to no indication of the seasonal likelihood of
flooding. The number of extreme events within a season shows the highest
correlations with floodiness consistently across regions. Otherwise, results
vary across climate regimes: floodiness in arid regions in southern and
eastern Africa shows the strongest correlations with seasonal average soil
moisture and seasonal total rainfall. Floodiness in wetter climates of
western and central Africa and Madagascar shows the strongest relationship
with measures of the intensity of seasonal rainfall. Measures of rainfall
patterns, such as the length of dry spells, are least related to seasonal
floodiness across the continent. Ultimately, identifying the drivers of
seasonal flooding can be used to improve forecast information for flood
preparedness and to avoid misleading decision-makers. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T08:27:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-32ee9e679d4146ed96cb26008b3fd9cd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T08:27:16Z |
| publishDate | 2017-09-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-32ee9e679d4146ed96cb26008b3fd9cd2022-12-21T21:56:43ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382017-09-01214517452410.5194/hess-21-4517-2017Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?E. Coughlan de Perez0E. Coughlan de Perez1E. Coughlan de Perez2E. Stephens3K. Bischiniotis4M. van Aalst5M. van Aalst6B. van den Hurk7S. Mason8H. Nissan9F. Pappenberger10Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, 2521 CV, the NetherlandsInstitute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, 1081 HV, the NetherlandsInternational Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, New York, 10964, USASchool of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6AH, UKInstitute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, 1081 HV, the NetherlandsRed Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, 2521 CV, the NetherlandsInternational Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, New York, 10964, USARoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, 3731 GA, the NetherlandsInternational Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, New York, 10964, USAInternational Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, New York, 10964, USAEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, RG2 9AX, UKIn light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate services for flood preparation, we question whether seasonal rainfall forecasts should indeed be used as indicators of the likelihood of flooding. Here, we investigate the primary indicators of flooding at the seasonal timescale across sub-Saharan Africa. Given the sparsity of hydrological observations, we input bias-corrected reanalysis rainfall into the Global Flood Awareness System to identify seasonal indicators of floodiness. Results demonstrate that in some regions of western, central, and eastern Africa with typically wet climates, even a perfect tercile forecast of seasonal total rainfall would provide little to no indication of the seasonal likelihood of flooding. The number of extreme events within a season shows the highest correlations with floodiness consistently across regions. Otherwise, results vary across climate regimes: floodiness in arid regions in southern and eastern Africa shows the strongest correlations with seasonal average soil moisture and seasonal total rainfall. Floodiness in wetter climates of western and central Africa and Madagascar shows the strongest relationship with measures of the intensity of seasonal rainfall. Measures of rainfall patterns, such as the length of dry spells, are least related to seasonal floodiness across the continent. Ultimately, identifying the drivers of seasonal flooding can be used to improve forecast information for flood preparedness and to avoid misleading decision-makers.https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/4517/2017/hess-21-4517-2017.pdf |
| spellingShingle | E. Coughlan de Perez E. Coughlan de Perez E. Coughlan de Perez E. Stephens K. Bischiniotis M. van Aalst M. van Aalst B. van den Hurk S. Mason H. Nissan F. Pappenberger Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness? |
| title_full | Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness? |
| title_fullStr | Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness? |
| title_short | Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness? |
| title_sort | should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness |
| url | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/4517/2017/hess-21-4517-2017.pdf |
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