Evaluation of Observed and Future Climate Change Projection for Uttarakhand, India, Using CORDEX-SA
The climate change scenarios, especially global warming, have raised significant concerns, and the Himalayan regions such as Uttarakhand are highly vulnerable to such climatic shifts. Considering 10 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments in South Asia (CORDEX-SA), experiments with 3 re...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/6/947 |
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| author | Neetu Tyagi Tripti Jayal Mukesh Singh Vipan Mandwal Atul Saini Nirbhav Netrananda Sahu Sridhara Nayak |
| author_facet | Neetu Tyagi Tripti Jayal Mukesh Singh Vipan Mandwal Atul Saini Nirbhav Netrananda Sahu Sridhara Nayak |
| author_sort | Neetu Tyagi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The climate change scenarios, especially global warming, have raised significant concerns, and the Himalayan regions such as Uttarakhand are highly vulnerable to such climatic shifts. Considering 10 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments in South Asia (CORDEX-SA), experiments with 3 regional climate models (RCMs), driven by 13 global climate models, historical estimates and future projections are analyzed from the mid-century (MC) i.e., from 2021–2050 to the end of the century (EC) i.e., from 2070–2099 to characterize annual and seasonal variations in precipitation and temperature. The analysis shows a decrease in the annual average precipitation by 5.92% at MC and an increase of 5.97% at EC for the Representative Climate Pathway (RCP) 4.5, while precipitation may likely increase from 2.83% to 15.89% towards MC and EC in the RCP 8.5. The maximum temperature may likely increase from 0.42 °C to 3.07 °C from MC to EC in the RCP 4.5 and from 0.83 °C to 5.49 °C in the RCP 8.5. In addition, the minimum temperature may increase from 0.80 °C to 3.25 °C from MC to EC in the RCP 4.5 and from 0.30 °C to 5.86 °C from MC to EC in the RCP 8.5. Notably, a decrease in the pre-monsoon precipitation at EC and a higher increase in the maximum temperature during the monsoon season are observed. An increase in the maximum temperature along with precipitation may lead to an increase in the frequency of the monsoon season’s extreme rainfall events. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T00:26:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3310c629874f4503af32641976719adc |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T00:26:27Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-3310c629874f4503af32641976719adc2023-11-23T15:33:12ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332022-06-0113694710.3390/atmos13060947Evaluation of Observed and Future Climate Change Projection for Uttarakhand, India, Using CORDEX-SANeetu Tyagi0Tripti Jayal1Mukesh Singh2Vipan Mandwal3Atul Saini4Nirbhav5Netrananda Sahu6Sridhara Nayak7State Environment, Conservation and Climate Change Directorate, Dehradun 248001, IndiaState Environment, Conservation and Climate Change Directorate, Dehradun 248001, IndiaState Environment, Conservation and Climate Change Directorate, Dehradun 248001, IndiaState Environment, Conservation and Climate Change Directorate, Dehradun 248001, IndiaDelhi School of Climate Change & Sustainability, Institution of Eminence, University of Delhi, Delhi 110007, IndiaDepartment of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, Delhi 110007, IndiaDepartment of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, Delhi 110007, IndiaEarth Science Center, Japan Meteorological Corporation Limited, Osaka 5300011, JapanThe climate change scenarios, especially global warming, have raised significant concerns, and the Himalayan regions such as Uttarakhand are highly vulnerable to such climatic shifts. Considering 10 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments in South Asia (CORDEX-SA), experiments with 3 regional climate models (RCMs), driven by 13 global climate models, historical estimates and future projections are analyzed from the mid-century (MC) i.e., from 2021–2050 to the end of the century (EC) i.e., from 2070–2099 to characterize annual and seasonal variations in precipitation and temperature. The analysis shows a decrease in the annual average precipitation by 5.92% at MC and an increase of 5.97% at EC for the Representative Climate Pathway (RCP) 4.5, while precipitation may likely increase from 2.83% to 15.89% towards MC and EC in the RCP 8.5. The maximum temperature may likely increase from 0.42 °C to 3.07 °C from MC to EC in the RCP 4.5 and from 0.83 °C to 5.49 °C in the RCP 8.5. In addition, the minimum temperature may increase from 0.80 °C to 3.25 °C from MC to EC in the RCP 4.5 and from 0.30 °C to 5.86 °C from MC to EC in the RCP 8.5. Notably, a decrease in the pre-monsoon precipitation at EC and a higher increase in the maximum temperature during the monsoon season are observed. An increase in the maximum temperature along with precipitation may lead to an increase in the frequency of the monsoon season’s extreme rainfall events.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/6/947regional climate modelCORDEXprecipitationtemperatureprojection |
| spellingShingle | Neetu Tyagi Tripti Jayal Mukesh Singh Vipan Mandwal Atul Saini Nirbhav Netrananda Sahu Sridhara Nayak Evaluation of Observed and Future Climate Change Projection for Uttarakhand, India, Using CORDEX-SA Atmosphere regional climate model CORDEX precipitation temperature projection |
| title | Evaluation of Observed and Future Climate Change Projection for Uttarakhand, India, Using CORDEX-SA |
| title_full | Evaluation of Observed and Future Climate Change Projection for Uttarakhand, India, Using CORDEX-SA |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of Observed and Future Climate Change Projection for Uttarakhand, India, Using CORDEX-SA |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of Observed and Future Climate Change Projection for Uttarakhand, India, Using CORDEX-SA |
| title_short | Evaluation of Observed and Future Climate Change Projection for Uttarakhand, India, Using CORDEX-SA |
| title_sort | evaluation of observed and future climate change projection for uttarakhand india using cordex sa |
| topic | regional climate model CORDEX precipitation temperature projection |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/6/947 |
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