Climate-driven tipping-points could lead to sudden, high-intensity parasite outbreaks
Parasitic nematodes represent one of the most pervasive and significant challenges to grazing livestock, and their intensity and distribution are strongly influenced by climate. Parasite levels and species composition have already shifted under climate change, with nematode parasite intensity freque...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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The Royal Society
2015-01-01
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| Series: | Royal Society Open Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.140296 |
| _version_ | 1818505430461054976 |
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| author | Naomi J. Fox Glenn Marion Ross S. Davidson Piran C. L. White Michael R. Hutchings |
| author_facet | Naomi J. Fox Glenn Marion Ross S. Davidson Piran C. L. White Michael R. Hutchings |
| author_sort | Naomi J. Fox |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Parasitic nematodes represent one of the most pervasive and significant challenges to grazing livestock, and their intensity and distribution are strongly influenced by climate. Parasite levels and species composition have already shifted under climate change, with nematode parasite intensity frequently low in newly colonized areas, but sudden large-scale outbreaks are becoming increasingly common. These outbreaks compromise both food security and animal welfare, yet there is a paucity of predictions on how climate change will influence livestock parasites. This study aims to assess how climate change can affect parasite risk. Using a process-based approach, we determine how changes in temperature-sensitive elements of outbreaks influence parasite dynamics, to explore the potential for climate change to influence livestock helminth infections. We show that changes in temperate-sensitive parameters can result in nonlinear responses in outbreak dynamics, leading to distinct ‘tipping-points’ in nematode parasite burdens. Through applying two mechanistic models, of varying complexity, our approach demonstrates that these nonlinear responses are robust to the inclusion of a number of realistic processes that are present in livestock systems. Our study demonstrates that small changes in climatic conditions around critical thresholds may result in dramatic changes in parasite burdens. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T21:50:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-331ca76245be436caf6e59f12459e74b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2054-5703 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T21:50:40Z |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | The Royal Society |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Royal Society Open Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-331ca76245be436caf6e59f12459e74b2022-12-22T01:32:13ZengThe Royal SocietyRoyal Society Open Science2054-57032015-01-012510.1098/rsos.140296140296Climate-driven tipping-points could lead to sudden, high-intensity parasite outbreaksNaomi J. FoxGlenn MarionRoss S. DavidsonPiran C. L. WhiteMichael R. HutchingsParasitic nematodes represent one of the most pervasive and significant challenges to grazing livestock, and their intensity and distribution are strongly influenced by climate. Parasite levels and species composition have already shifted under climate change, with nematode parasite intensity frequently low in newly colonized areas, but sudden large-scale outbreaks are becoming increasingly common. These outbreaks compromise both food security and animal welfare, yet there is a paucity of predictions on how climate change will influence livestock parasites. This study aims to assess how climate change can affect parasite risk. Using a process-based approach, we determine how changes in temperature-sensitive elements of outbreaks influence parasite dynamics, to explore the potential for climate change to influence livestock helminth infections. We show that changes in temperate-sensitive parameters can result in nonlinear responses in outbreak dynamics, leading to distinct ‘tipping-points’ in nematode parasite burdens. Through applying two mechanistic models, of varying complexity, our approach demonstrates that these nonlinear responses are robust to the inclusion of a number of realistic processes that are present in livestock systems. Our study demonstrates that small changes in climatic conditions around critical thresholds may result in dramatic changes in parasite burdens.https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.140296climate changehelminthlivestocknematodeparasitetemperature |
| spellingShingle | Naomi J. Fox Glenn Marion Ross S. Davidson Piran C. L. White Michael R. Hutchings Climate-driven tipping-points could lead to sudden, high-intensity parasite outbreaks Royal Society Open Science climate change helminth livestock nematode parasite temperature |
| title | Climate-driven tipping-points could lead to sudden, high-intensity parasite outbreaks |
| title_full | Climate-driven tipping-points could lead to sudden, high-intensity parasite outbreaks |
| title_fullStr | Climate-driven tipping-points could lead to sudden, high-intensity parasite outbreaks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate-driven tipping-points could lead to sudden, high-intensity parasite outbreaks |
| title_short | Climate-driven tipping-points could lead to sudden, high-intensity parasite outbreaks |
| title_sort | climate driven tipping points could lead to sudden high intensity parasite outbreaks |
| topic | climate change helminth livestock nematode parasite temperature |
| url | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.140296 |
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