Geographical quantification of the seasonality of transmission of COVID-19 in human populations as a function of the variability of temperatures
The occurrence of cases of COVID-19 suggests that it will likely become seasonally endemic in human populations. We seek to provide a quantification of the seasonality of the occurrence and severity of COVID-19 cases in human populations. Using global data, we show that the spatiotemporal distributi...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research: Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5309/ad0320 |
| _version_ | 1797633628951281664 |
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| author | Bailey Magers Moiz Usmani Chang-Yu Wu Antarpreet Jutla |
| author_facet | Bailey Magers Moiz Usmani Chang-Yu Wu Antarpreet Jutla |
| author_sort | Bailey Magers |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The occurrence of cases of COVID-19 suggests that it will likely become seasonally endemic in human populations. We seek to provide a quantification of the seasonality of the occurrence and severity of COVID-19 cases in human populations. Using global data, we show that the spatiotemporal distribution of COVID-19 cases is a function of distinct seasons and climates. We investigated this at the county and the country scale using a comparison of seasonal means, correlation analyses using ambient air temperatures and dew point temperatures, and multiple linear regression techniques. We found that most locations had the highest incidence of COVID-19 during winter compared to other seasons. Regions closer to the equator had a higher incidence of COVID-19 during the summer than regions further from the equator. Regions close to the equator, where mean annual temperatures have less variance compared to those further from the equator, had smaller differences between seasonal COVID-19 incidence. Correlation and regression analyses showed that ambient air and dew point temperatures were significantly associated with COVID-19 incidence. Our results suggest that temperature and the environment are influential factors to understand the transmission of COVID-19 within the human population. This research provides empirical evidence that temperature changes are a strong indicator of seasonal COVID-19 outbreaks, and as such it will aid in planning for future outbreaks and for mitigating their impacts. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T11:56:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-33334c6e8f4e4e5f817db1c1c6390801 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2752-5309 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T11:56:34Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research: Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-33334c6e8f4e4e5f817db1c1c63908012023-11-08T15:28:18ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research: Health2752-53092023-01-011404500610.1088/2752-5309/ad0320Geographical quantification of the seasonality of transmission of COVID-19 in human populations as a function of the variability of temperaturesBailey Magers0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9953-6651Moiz Usmani1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2718-8387Chang-Yu Wu2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2100-8816Antarpreet Jutla3University of Florida GeoHealth and Hydrology Laboratory—1128 Center Dr Gainesville , Gainesville, FL 32611, United States of AmericaUniversity of Florida GeoHealth and Hydrology Laboratory—1128 Center Dr Gainesville , Gainesville, FL 32611, United States of AmericaUniversity of Miami Department of Chemical, Environmental and Materials Engineering—1251 Memorial Dr McArthur Engineering Building Coral Gables , Coral Gables, FL 33146, United States of AmericaUniversity of Florida GeoHealth and Hydrology Laboratory—1128 Center Dr Gainesville , Gainesville, FL 32611, United States of AmericaThe occurrence of cases of COVID-19 suggests that it will likely become seasonally endemic in human populations. We seek to provide a quantification of the seasonality of the occurrence and severity of COVID-19 cases in human populations. Using global data, we show that the spatiotemporal distribution of COVID-19 cases is a function of distinct seasons and climates. We investigated this at the county and the country scale using a comparison of seasonal means, correlation analyses using ambient air temperatures and dew point temperatures, and multiple linear regression techniques. We found that most locations had the highest incidence of COVID-19 during winter compared to other seasons. Regions closer to the equator had a higher incidence of COVID-19 during the summer than regions further from the equator. Regions close to the equator, where mean annual temperatures have less variance compared to those further from the equator, had smaller differences between seasonal COVID-19 incidence. Correlation and regression analyses showed that ambient air and dew point temperatures were significantly associated with COVID-19 incidence. Our results suggest that temperature and the environment are influential factors to understand the transmission of COVID-19 within the human population. This research provides empirical evidence that temperature changes are a strong indicator of seasonal COVID-19 outbreaks, and as such it will aid in planning for future outbreaks and for mitigating their impacts.https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5309/ad0320COVID-19seasonallytemperatures |
| spellingShingle | Bailey Magers Moiz Usmani Chang-Yu Wu Antarpreet Jutla Geographical quantification of the seasonality of transmission of COVID-19 in human populations as a function of the variability of temperatures Environmental Research: Health COVID-19 seasonally temperatures |
| title | Geographical quantification of the seasonality of transmission of COVID-19 in human populations as a function of the variability of temperatures |
| title_full | Geographical quantification of the seasonality of transmission of COVID-19 in human populations as a function of the variability of temperatures |
| title_fullStr | Geographical quantification of the seasonality of transmission of COVID-19 in human populations as a function of the variability of temperatures |
| title_full_unstemmed | Geographical quantification of the seasonality of transmission of COVID-19 in human populations as a function of the variability of temperatures |
| title_short | Geographical quantification of the seasonality of transmission of COVID-19 in human populations as a function of the variability of temperatures |
| title_sort | geographical quantification of the seasonality of transmission of covid 19 in human populations as a function of the variability of temperatures |
| topic | COVID-19 seasonally temperatures |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5309/ad0320 |
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