Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change
Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs), few of them have incorporated the change of effective...
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PeerJ Inc.
2016-10-01
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| author | Yanlong Guo Haiyan Wei Chunyan Lu Bei Gao Wei Gu |
| author_facet | Yanlong Guo Haiyan Wei Chunyan Lu Bei Gao Wei Gu |
| author_sort | Yanlong Guo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs), few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants. Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment for S. spenanthera. Moreover, the future quality and distribution of S. spenanthera were also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera under all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera would gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas for S. sphenanthera when the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of S. sphenanthera and can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants. |
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| issn | 2167-8359 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T08:06:15Z |
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| spelling | doaj.art-3369681a950f4d77aaa1d7586ce2c2ee2023-12-02T23:48:40ZengPeerJ Inc.PeerJ2167-83592016-10-014e255410.7717/peerj.2554Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate changeYanlong Guo0Haiyan Wei1Chunyan Lu2Bei Gao3Wei Gu4National Engineering laboratory for Resource Development of Endangered Chinese Crude Drugs in Northwest of China, Shaanxi Normal University, Xian, ChinaCollege of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, Xian, ChinaFujian Agriculture and Forestry University, College of Computer and Information Sciences, Fuzhou, ChinaNational Engineering laboratory for Resource Development of Endangered Chinese Crude Drugs in Northwest of China, Shaanxi Normal University, Xian, ChinaNational Engineering laboratory for Resource Development of Endangered Chinese Crude Drugs in Northwest of China, Shaanxi Normal University, Xian, ChinaClimate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs), few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants. Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment for S. spenanthera. Moreover, the future quality and distribution of S. spenanthera were also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera under all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera would gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas for S. sphenanthera when the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of S. sphenanthera and can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants.https://peerj.com/articles/2554.pdfClimate changeGISMedicinal plantsFuzzy membership functionSchisandra sphenantheraSpecies distribution modeling |
| spellingShingle | Yanlong Guo Haiyan Wei Chunyan Lu Bei Gao Wei Gu Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change PeerJ Climate change GIS Medicinal plants Fuzzy membership function Schisandra sphenanthera Species distribution modeling |
| title | Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change |
| title_full | Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change |
| title_fullStr | Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change |
| title_short | Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change |
| title_sort | predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of schisandra sphenanthera under climate change |
| topic | Climate change GIS Medicinal plants Fuzzy membership function Schisandra sphenanthera Species distribution modeling |
| url | https://peerj.com/articles/2554.pdf |
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