Estimating Discount Rates
Discount rates are essential to applied finance, especially in setting prices for regulated utilities and valuing the liabilities of insurance companies and defined benefit pension plans. This paper reviews the basic building blocks for estimating discount rates. It also examines market risk premiu...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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University of Calgary
2015-04-01
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| Series: | The School of Public Policy Publications |
| Online Access: | https://dev.journalhosting.ucalgary.ca/index.php/sppp/article/view/42518 |
| _version_ | 1797754437045846016 |
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| author | Laurence Booth |
| author_facet | Laurence Booth |
| author_sort | Laurence Booth |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
Discount rates are essential to applied finance, especially in setting prices for regulated utilities and valuing the liabilities of insurance companies and defined benefit pension plans. This paper reviews the basic building blocks for estimating discount rates. It also examines market risk premiums, as well as what constitutes a benchmark fair or required rate of return, in the aftermath of the financial crisis and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program. Some of the results are disconcerting. In Canada, utilities and pension regulators responded to the crash in different ways. Utilities regulators haven’t passed on the full impact of low interest rates, so that consumers face higher prices than they should whereas pension regulators have done the opposite, and forced some contributors to pay more. In both cases this is opposite to the desired effect of monetary policy which is to stimulate aggregate demand. A comprehensive survey of global finance professionals carried out last year provides some clues as to where adjustments are needed. In the U.S., the average equity market required return was estimated at 8.0 per cent; Canada’s is 7.40 per cent, due to the lower market risk premium and the lower risk-free rate. This paper adds a wealth of historic and survey data to conclude that the ideal base long-term interest rate used in risk premium models should be 4.0 per cent, producing an overall expected market return of 9-10.0 per cent. The same data indicate that allowed returns to utilities are currently too high, while the use of current bond yields in solvency valuations of pension plans and life insurers is unhelpful unless there is a realistic expectation that the plans will soon be terminated.
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| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T17:32:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-33a0b334f91e4349824b82fe58222feb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2560-8312 2560-8320 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T17:32:23Z |
| publishDate | 2015-04-01 |
| publisher | University of Calgary |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The School of Public Policy Publications |
| spelling | doaj.art-33a0b334f91e4349824b82fe58222feb2023-08-04T15:52:32ZengUniversity of CalgaryThe School of Public Policy Publications2560-83122560-83202015-04-018Estimating Discount RatesLaurence Booth0University of Toronto Discount rates are essential to applied finance, especially in setting prices for regulated utilities and valuing the liabilities of insurance companies and defined benefit pension plans. This paper reviews the basic building blocks for estimating discount rates. It also examines market risk premiums, as well as what constitutes a benchmark fair or required rate of return, in the aftermath of the financial crisis and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program. Some of the results are disconcerting. In Canada, utilities and pension regulators responded to the crash in different ways. Utilities regulators haven’t passed on the full impact of low interest rates, so that consumers face higher prices than they should whereas pension regulators have done the opposite, and forced some contributors to pay more. In both cases this is opposite to the desired effect of monetary policy which is to stimulate aggregate demand. A comprehensive survey of global finance professionals carried out last year provides some clues as to where adjustments are needed. In the U.S., the average equity market required return was estimated at 8.0 per cent; Canada’s is 7.40 per cent, due to the lower market risk premium and the lower risk-free rate. This paper adds a wealth of historic and survey data to conclude that the ideal base long-term interest rate used in risk premium models should be 4.0 per cent, producing an overall expected market return of 9-10.0 per cent. The same data indicate that allowed returns to utilities are currently too high, while the use of current bond yields in solvency valuations of pension plans and life insurers is unhelpful unless there is a realistic expectation that the plans will soon be terminated. https://dev.journalhosting.ucalgary.ca/index.php/sppp/article/view/42518 |
| spellingShingle | Laurence Booth Estimating Discount Rates The School of Public Policy Publications |
| title | Estimating Discount Rates |
| title_full | Estimating Discount Rates |
| title_fullStr | Estimating Discount Rates |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating Discount Rates |
| title_short | Estimating Discount Rates |
| title_sort | estimating discount rates |
| url | https://dev.journalhosting.ucalgary.ca/index.php/sppp/article/view/42518 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT laurencebooth estimatingdiscountrates |