Impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Yangzhou from 2017 to 2022: a time series study
BackgroundHand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a significant public health issue in China, and numerous studies have indicated a close association between HFMD incidence and meteorological factors. This study aims to investigate the relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD in Yangzhou...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1278516/full |
| _version_ | 1827796431344238592 |
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| author | Zaijin Guo Zaijin Guo Yin Wang Yunshui Li Yunshui Li Luojing Zhou Luojing Zhou |
| author_facet | Zaijin Guo Zaijin Guo Yin Wang Yunshui Li Yunshui Li Luojing Zhou Luojing Zhou |
| author_sort | Zaijin Guo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundHand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a significant public health issue in China, and numerous studies have indicated a close association between HFMD incidence and meteorological factors. This study aims to investigate the relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD in Yangzhou City, Jiangsu Province, China.MethodsHFMD case reports and meteorological data from Yangzhou City between 2017 and 2022 were extracted from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System and the Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively. A generalized additive model (GAM) was employed to assess the exposure-response relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD. Subsequently, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to explore the exposure-lag-effect of meteorological factors on HFMD.ResultsHFMD in Yangzhou City exhibits obvious seasonality and periodicity. There is an inverted “U” shaped relationship between average temperature and the risk of HFMD, with the maximum lag effect observed at a temperature of 25°C with lag 0 day (RR = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.74–2.47). As the duration of sunshine and relative humidity increase, the risk of HFMD continuously rises, with the maximum lag effect observed at a sunshine duration of 12.4 h with a lag of 14 days (RR = 2.10, 95% CI: 1.17–3.77), and a relative humidity of 28% with a lag of 14 days (RR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.01–1.64). There is a “U” shaped relationship between average atmospheric pressure and the risk of HFMD, with the maximum effect observed at an atmospheric pressure of 989 hPa with no lag (RR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.25–1.69). As precipitation increases, the risk of HFMD decreases, with the maximum effect observed at a precipitation of 151 mm with a lag of 14 days (RR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.19–2.53).ConclusionMeteorological factors including average temperature, average atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, precipitation, and sunshine duration significantly influenced the risk of HFMD in Yangzhou City. Effective prevention measures for HFMD should be implemented, taking into account the local climate conditions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T19:06:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-33dfc483b38b4e239547fd50e9c901e7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-2565 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T19:06:06Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
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| series | Frontiers in Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-33dfc483b38b4e239547fd50e9c901e72023-10-10T07:08:29ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652023-10-011110.3389/fpubh.2023.12785161278516Impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Yangzhou from 2017 to 2022: a time series studyZaijin Guo0Zaijin Guo1Yin Wang2Yunshui Li3Yunshui Li4Luojing Zhou5Luojing Zhou6Clinical Medical College, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, ChinaNorthern Jiangsu People’s Hospital, Yangzhou, ChinaDepartment of Acute Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Yangzhou Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Yangzhou, ChinaClinical Medical College, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, ChinaNorthern Jiangsu People’s Hospital, Yangzhou, ChinaClinical Medical College, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, ChinaNorthern Jiangsu People’s Hospital, Yangzhou, ChinaBackgroundHand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a significant public health issue in China, and numerous studies have indicated a close association between HFMD incidence and meteorological factors. This study aims to investigate the relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD in Yangzhou City, Jiangsu Province, China.MethodsHFMD case reports and meteorological data from Yangzhou City between 2017 and 2022 were extracted from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System and the Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively. A generalized additive model (GAM) was employed to assess the exposure-response relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD. Subsequently, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to explore the exposure-lag-effect of meteorological factors on HFMD.ResultsHFMD in Yangzhou City exhibits obvious seasonality and periodicity. There is an inverted “U” shaped relationship between average temperature and the risk of HFMD, with the maximum lag effect observed at a temperature of 25°C with lag 0 day (RR = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.74–2.47). As the duration of sunshine and relative humidity increase, the risk of HFMD continuously rises, with the maximum lag effect observed at a sunshine duration of 12.4 h with a lag of 14 days (RR = 2.10, 95% CI: 1.17–3.77), and a relative humidity of 28% with a lag of 14 days (RR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.01–1.64). There is a “U” shaped relationship between average atmospheric pressure and the risk of HFMD, with the maximum effect observed at an atmospheric pressure of 989 hPa with no lag (RR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.25–1.69). As precipitation increases, the risk of HFMD decreases, with the maximum effect observed at a precipitation of 151 mm with a lag of 14 days (RR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.19–2.53).ConclusionMeteorological factors including average temperature, average atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, precipitation, and sunshine duration significantly influenced the risk of HFMD in Yangzhou City. Effective prevention measures for HFMD should be implemented, taking into account the local climate conditions.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1278516/fullhand, foot and mouth diseasemeteorological factorsgeneralized additive modeldistributed lag nonlinear modelChina |
| spellingShingle | Zaijin Guo Zaijin Guo Yin Wang Yunshui Li Yunshui Li Luojing Zhou Luojing Zhou Impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Yangzhou from 2017 to 2022: a time series study Frontiers in Public Health hand, foot and mouth disease meteorological factors generalized additive model distributed lag nonlinear model China |
| title | Impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Yangzhou from 2017 to 2022: a time series study |
| title_full | Impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Yangzhou from 2017 to 2022: a time series study |
| title_fullStr | Impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Yangzhou from 2017 to 2022: a time series study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Yangzhou from 2017 to 2022: a time series study |
| title_short | Impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Yangzhou from 2017 to 2022: a time series study |
| title_sort | impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand foot mouth disease in yangzhou from 2017 to 2022 a time series study |
| topic | hand, foot and mouth disease meteorological factors generalized additive model distributed lag nonlinear model China |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1278516/full |
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