Net zero climate remediations and potential terminal depletion of global critical metal resources: A synoptic geological perspective
Over the past two decades, concerns about anthropogenic CO2 emissions have led to computer-based climate models of the consequences, first on global warming and then on more general climate change. The more extremes of these models have been used to engender concerns about climate events that could...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2023-02-01
|
| Series: | Geosystems and Geoenvironment |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S277288382200111X |
| _version_ | 1828070164227162112 |
|---|---|
| author | David I. Groves M. Santosh Liang Zhang |
| author_facet | David I. Groves M. Santosh Liang Zhang |
| author_sort | David I. Groves |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Over the past two decades, concerns about anthropogenic CO2 emissions have led to computer-based climate models of the consequences, first on global warming and then on more general climate change. The more extremes of these models have been used to engender concerns about climate events that could be catastrophic for global populations even though natural climate change has always been incremental with only periodic large volcanic eruptions producing short-term catastrophic changes due to massive additions of aerosols to the atmosphere. Climate change accords have led to widespread acceptance of Net Zero by 2060 targets. However, indicative modelling of the nexus between clean energy and the critical metals required for low carbon solar and wind technologies and electric vehicles and their chargers indicates that many metals, particularly Co, Ni, Cu, Se, Ag, Cd, In, Te, and Pt, may be severely to terminally depleted by 2060, making further low carbon technology production impossible. Mineral exploration and currently unmined deposits with high risk factors are only likely to be able to replace these non-renewable metals at lower grades in more inaccessible or deeper mines, leading to even further increases in conventional energy for mining and metallurgy and consequent cost of the low carbon technology revolution. There is no current indication that recycling can replace the critical metal stocks. The heterogeneous global distribution of both mineral deposits containing the critical metals and production points could become a geopolitical issue if global security declines. These factors combined with the slow incremental, rather than catastrophic, changes related to climate change, suggest that a reset in Net Zero ambitions should be made to consider a more multicomponent plan for the future that involves a balanced portfolio of least polluting energy sources that do not cause serious depletion of affordable metal resources for the future. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T00:33:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-33eca23946db46e0b69e7daea9abcfda |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2772-8838 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T00:33:36Z |
| publishDate | 2023-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geosystems and Geoenvironment |
| spelling | doaj.art-33eca23946db46e0b69e7daea9abcfda2023-01-07T04:17:53ZengElsevierGeosystems and Geoenvironment2772-88382023-02-0121100136Net zero climate remediations and potential terminal depletion of global critical metal resources: A synoptic geological perspectiveDavid I. Groves0M. Santosh1Liang Zhang2State Key Laboratory of Geological Processes and Mineral Resources, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing, 100083, China; Orebusters Pty Ltd, Gwelup, 6018, WA, AustraliaState Key Laboratory of Geological Processes and Mineral Resources, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing, 100083, China; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, 5005, Australia; Division of Interdisciplinary Science, Faculty of Science, Kochi University, Kochi, 780-8520, Japan; Corresponding author.State Key Laboratory of Geological Processes and Mineral Resources, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing, 100083, ChinaOver the past two decades, concerns about anthropogenic CO2 emissions have led to computer-based climate models of the consequences, first on global warming and then on more general climate change. The more extremes of these models have been used to engender concerns about climate events that could be catastrophic for global populations even though natural climate change has always been incremental with only periodic large volcanic eruptions producing short-term catastrophic changes due to massive additions of aerosols to the atmosphere. Climate change accords have led to widespread acceptance of Net Zero by 2060 targets. However, indicative modelling of the nexus between clean energy and the critical metals required for low carbon solar and wind technologies and electric vehicles and their chargers indicates that many metals, particularly Co, Ni, Cu, Se, Ag, Cd, In, Te, and Pt, may be severely to terminally depleted by 2060, making further low carbon technology production impossible. Mineral exploration and currently unmined deposits with high risk factors are only likely to be able to replace these non-renewable metals at lower grades in more inaccessible or deeper mines, leading to even further increases in conventional energy for mining and metallurgy and consequent cost of the low carbon technology revolution. There is no current indication that recycling can replace the critical metal stocks. The heterogeneous global distribution of both mineral deposits containing the critical metals and production points could become a geopolitical issue if global security declines. These factors combined with the slow incremental, rather than catastrophic, changes related to climate change, suggest that a reset in Net Zero ambitions should be made to consider a more multicomponent plan for the future that involves a balanced portfolio of least polluting energy sources that do not cause serious depletion of affordable metal resources for the future.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S277288382200111XNet zeroClimateEnvironmentEnergyCritical metalsMineral resources |
| spellingShingle | David I. Groves M. Santosh Liang Zhang Net zero climate remediations and potential terminal depletion of global critical metal resources: A synoptic geological perspective Geosystems and Geoenvironment Net zero Climate Environment Energy Critical metals Mineral resources |
| title | Net zero climate remediations and potential terminal depletion of global critical metal resources: A synoptic geological perspective |
| title_full | Net zero climate remediations and potential terminal depletion of global critical metal resources: A synoptic geological perspective |
| title_fullStr | Net zero climate remediations and potential terminal depletion of global critical metal resources: A synoptic geological perspective |
| title_full_unstemmed | Net zero climate remediations and potential terminal depletion of global critical metal resources: A synoptic geological perspective |
| title_short | Net zero climate remediations and potential terminal depletion of global critical metal resources: A synoptic geological perspective |
| title_sort | net zero climate remediations and potential terminal depletion of global critical metal resources a synoptic geological perspective |
| topic | Net zero Climate Environment Energy Critical metals Mineral resources |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S277288382200111X |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT davidigroves netzeroclimateremediationsandpotentialterminaldepletionofglobalcriticalmetalresourcesasynopticgeologicalperspective AT msantosh netzeroclimateremediationsandpotentialterminaldepletionofglobalcriticalmetalresourcesasynopticgeologicalperspective AT liangzhang netzeroclimateremediationsandpotentialterminaldepletionofglobalcriticalmetalresourcesasynopticgeologicalperspective |