The Effectiveness of Population Mass Screening to Oral Cancer: A Simulation Study
Background: Mass screening of high-risk populations for oral cancer has proven to be effective in reducing oral cancer mortality. However, the magnitude of the effectiveness of the various screening scenarios has rarely been addressed. Methods: We developed a simulation algorithm for a prospective c...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
SAGE Publishing
2022-12-01
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| Series: | Technology in Cancer Research & Treatment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1177/15330338221147771 |
| _version_ | 1797976642211020800 |
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| author | Chiu-Wen Su PhD William Wang-Yu Su MD Sam Li-Sheng Chen PhD Tony Hsiu-Hsi Chen PhD Tsui-Hsia Hsu MSc Mu-Kuan Chen MD, PhD Amy Ming-Fang Yen PhD |
| author_facet | Chiu-Wen Su PhD William Wang-Yu Su MD Sam Li-Sheng Chen PhD Tony Hsiu-Hsi Chen PhD Tsui-Hsia Hsu MSc Mu-Kuan Chen MD, PhD Amy Ming-Fang Yen PhD |
| author_sort | Chiu-Wen Su PhD |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Mass screening of high-risk populations for oral cancer has proven to be effective in reducing oral cancer mortality. However, the magnitude of the effectiveness of the various screening scenarios has rarely been addressed. Methods: We developed a simulation algorithm for a prospective cohort under various oral cancer screening scenarios. A hypothetical cohort of 8 million participants aged ≥30 years with cigaret smoking and/or betel quid chewing habits was constructed based on parameters extracted from studies on oral cancer screening. The results of a population-based screening program in Taiwan and a randomized controlled trial in India were used to validate the fitness; then, the effectiveness of the model was determined by changing the screening parameters. Results: There was a reduction in the risk of advanced oral cancer by 40% (relative risk [RR] = 0.60, 95% confidence interval [CI]:0.59-0.62) and oral cancer mortality by 29% (RR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.69-0.73) at the 6-year follow-up in a screening scenario similar to the biennial screening in Taiwan, with a 55.1% attendance rate and 92.6% referral rate. The incremental effect in reducing advanced oral cancer was approximately 5% with a short 1-year screening frequency, and the corresponding reduction in mortality was, on average, 6.5%. The incremental reduction in advanced oral cancer per 10% increase in the compliance rate was 3% to 4%, while only 1% to 2% reduction was noted per 10% increase in the referral rate. The effectiveness of screening in reducing advanced oral cancer was 5% to 6% less when both betel quid chewing and alcohol drinking habits were present. Conclusion: Our computer simulation model demonstrated the effect of screening on the reduction in oral cancer mortality under various scenarios. The results provide screening policymakers with the necessary guidance to implement screening programs to save lives. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T04:54:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3414ef58d4bc49f8bffe1bda5aec6317 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1533-0338 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T04:54:08Z |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | SAGE Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Technology in Cancer Research & Treatment |
| spelling | doaj.art-3414ef58d4bc49f8bffe1bda5aec63172022-12-26T15:36:37ZengSAGE PublishingTechnology in Cancer Research & Treatment1533-03382022-12-012110.1177/15330338221147771The Effectiveness of Population Mass Screening to Oral Cancer: A Simulation StudyChiu-Wen Su PhD0William Wang-Yu Su MD1Sam Li-Sheng Chen PhD2Tony Hsiu-Hsi Chen PhD3Tsui-Hsia Hsu MSc4Mu-Kuan Chen MD, PhD5Amy Ming-Fang Yen PhD6 , Taipei, Taiwan School of Medicine, , Hualien, Taiwan School of Oral Hygiene, College of Oral Medicine, , Taipei, Taiwan , College of Public Health, , Taipei, Taiwan Health Promotion Administration, , Taipei, Taiwan , Changhua, Taiwan , College of Public Health, , Taipei, TaiwanBackground: Mass screening of high-risk populations for oral cancer has proven to be effective in reducing oral cancer mortality. However, the magnitude of the effectiveness of the various screening scenarios has rarely been addressed. Methods: We developed a simulation algorithm for a prospective cohort under various oral cancer screening scenarios. A hypothetical cohort of 8 million participants aged ≥30 years with cigaret smoking and/or betel quid chewing habits was constructed based on parameters extracted from studies on oral cancer screening. The results of a population-based screening program in Taiwan and a randomized controlled trial in India were used to validate the fitness; then, the effectiveness of the model was determined by changing the screening parameters. Results: There was a reduction in the risk of advanced oral cancer by 40% (relative risk [RR] = 0.60, 95% confidence interval [CI]:0.59-0.62) and oral cancer mortality by 29% (RR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.69-0.73) at the 6-year follow-up in a screening scenario similar to the biennial screening in Taiwan, with a 55.1% attendance rate and 92.6% referral rate. The incremental effect in reducing advanced oral cancer was approximately 5% with a short 1-year screening frequency, and the corresponding reduction in mortality was, on average, 6.5%. The incremental reduction in advanced oral cancer per 10% increase in the compliance rate was 3% to 4%, while only 1% to 2% reduction was noted per 10% increase in the referral rate. The effectiveness of screening in reducing advanced oral cancer was 5% to 6% less when both betel quid chewing and alcohol drinking habits were present. Conclusion: Our computer simulation model demonstrated the effect of screening on the reduction in oral cancer mortality under various scenarios. The results provide screening policymakers with the necessary guidance to implement screening programs to save lives.https://doi.org/10.1177/15330338221147771 |
| spellingShingle | Chiu-Wen Su PhD William Wang-Yu Su MD Sam Li-Sheng Chen PhD Tony Hsiu-Hsi Chen PhD Tsui-Hsia Hsu MSc Mu-Kuan Chen MD, PhD Amy Ming-Fang Yen PhD The Effectiveness of Population Mass Screening to Oral Cancer: A Simulation Study Technology in Cancer Research & Treatment |
| title | The Effectiveness of Population Mass Screening to Oral Cancer: A Simulation Study |
| title_full | The Effectiveness of Population Mass Screening to Oral Cancer: A Simulation Study |
| title_fullStr | The Effectiveness of Population Mass Screening to Oral Cancer: A Simulation Study |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Effectiveness of Population Mass Screening to Oral Cancer: A Simulation Study |
| title_short | The Effectiveness of Population Mass Screening to Oral Cancer: A Simulation Study |
| title_sort | effectiveness of population mass screening to oral cancer a simulation study |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1177/15330338221147771 |
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