A probabilistic approach to levee reliability based on sliding, backward erosion and overflowing mechanisms: Application to an inspired Canadian case study
Abstract Improving protection against fluvial floods requires a better estimation of levee failure. We developed an assessment method of levee failure probabilities for sliding, backward erosion, and overflowing each represented by fragility curves. We tested two approaches to aggregate those fragil...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Journal of Flood Risk Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12921 |
| _version_ | 1797633990522306560 |
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| author | Florence Mainguenaud Laurent Peyras Usman T. Khan Claudio Carvajal Jitendra Sharma Bruno Beullac |
| author_facet | Florence Mainguenaud Laurent Peyras Usman T. Khan Claudio Carvajal Jitendra Sharma Bruno Beullac |
| author_sort | Florence Mainguenaud |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Improving protection against fluvial floods requires a better estimation of levee failure. We developed an assessment method of levee failure probabilities for sliding, backward erosion, and overflowing each represented by fragility curves. We tested two approaches to aggregate those fragility curves into a global fragility curve respectively using: an enveloping curve and Monte‐Carlo simulations. We implemented this approach to earthen levee reliability for several flood return periods to the Bow River in Calgary, Canada. We used limit equilibrium method to estimate the safety factor of the levee segment and Monte‐Carlo simulations to estimate sliding probabilities. We used Terzaghi's critical hydraulic gradient to estimate backward erosion failure probabilities. The estimation of overflowing probabilities required expert judgment. We discussed how the choice of the hydraulic gradient area and the consideration of a steady state or transient model impact backward erosion failure probabilities. The results showed for our study case that, even though the transient model is a closer representation of reality, the levee saturation parameter has little impact on hydraulic gradient values, by extension, on sliding and backward erosion failure probabilities. The Monte‐Carlo aggregated fragility curve is more realistic than the envelop curve of the failure mechanisms for an equivalent computation time. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T12:01:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-342c839cb35245278b4d802828a2d7b9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1753-318X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T12:01:30Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Flood Risk Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-342c839cb35245278b4d802828a2d7b92023-11-08T03:14:07ZengWileyJournal of Flood Risk Management1753-318X2023-12-01164n/an/a10.1111/jfr3.12921A probabilistic approach to levee reliability based on sliding, backward erosion and overflowing mechanisms: Application to an inspired Canadian case studyFlorence Mainguenaud0Laurent Peyras1Usman T. Khan2Claudio Carvajal3Jitendra Sharma4Bruno Beullac5INRAE, RECOVER Aix Marseille Univ Aix‐en‐Provence FranceINRAE, RECOVER Aix Marseille Univ Aix‐en‐Provence FranceLassonde School of Engineering York University Toronto Ontario CanadaINRAE, RECOVER Aix Marseille Univ Aix‐en‐Provence FranceLassonde School of Engineering York University Toronto Ontario CanadaINRAE, RECOVER Aix Marseille Univ Aix‐en‐Provence FranceAbstract Improving protection against fluvial floods requires a better estimation of levee failure. We developed an assessment method of levee failure probabilities for sliding, backward erosion, and overflowing each represented by fragility curves. We tested two approaches to aggregate those fragility curves into a global fragility curve respectively using: an enveloping curve and Monte‐Carlo simulations. We implemented this approach to earthen levee reliability for several flood return periods to the Bow River in Calgary, Canada. We used limit equilibrium method to estimate the safety factor of the levee segment and Monte‐Carlo simulations to estimate sliding probabilities. We used Terzaghi's critical hydraulic gradient to estimate backward erosion failure probabilities. The estimation of overflowing probabilities required expert judgment. We discussed how the choice of the hydraulic gradient area and the consideration of a steady state or transient model impact backward erosion failure probabilities. The results showed for our study case that, even though the transient model is a closer representation of reality, the levee saturation parameter has little impact on hydraulic gradient values, by extension, on sliding and backward erosion failure probabilities. The Monte‐Carlo aggregated fragility curve is more realistic than the envelop curve of the failure mechanisms for an equivalent computation time.https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12921backward erosionembankments and leveesfragility curvejoint probabilityoverflowingrisk analysis |
| spellingShingle | Florence Mainguenaud Laurent Peyras Usman T. Khan Claudio Carvajal Jitendra Sharma Bruno Beullac A probabilistic approach to levee reliability based on sliding, backward erosion and overflowing mechanisms: Application to an inspired Canadian case study Journal of Flood Risk Management backward erosion embankments and levees fragility curve joint probability overflowing risk analysis |
| title | A probabilistic approach to levee reliability based on sliding, backward erosion and overflowing mechanisms: Application to an inspired Canadian case study |
| title_full | A probabilistic approach to levee reliability based on sliding, backward erosion and overflowing mechanisms: Application to an inspired Canadian case study |
| title_fullStr | A probabilistic approach to levee reliability based on sliding, backward erosion and overflowing mechanisms: Application to an inspired Canadian case study |
| title_full_unstemmed | A probabilistic approach to levee reliability based on sliding, backward erosion and overflowing mechanisms: Application to an inspired Canadian case study |
| title_short | A probabilistic approach to levee reliability based on sliding, backward erosion and overflowing mechanisms: Application to an inspired Canadian case study |
| title_sort | probabilistic approach to levee reliability based on sliding backward erosion and overflowing mechanisms application to an inspired canadian case study |
| topic | backward erosion embankments and levees fragility curve joint probability overflowing risk analysis |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12921 |
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