Carbon Emission Prediction and the Reduction Pathway in Industrial Parks: A Scenario Analysis Based on the Integration of the LEAP Model with LMDI Decomposition
Global climate change imposes significant challenges on the ecological environment and human sustainability. Industrial parks, in line with the national climate change mitigation strategy, are key targets for low-carbon revolution within the industrial sector. To predict the carbon emission of indus...
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| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Energies |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/21/7356 |
| _version_ | 1797631920490676224 |
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| author | Dawei Feng Wenchao Xu Xinyu Gao Yun Yang Shirui Feng Xiaohu Yang Hailong Li |
| author_facet | Dawei Feng Wenchao Xu Xinyu Gao Yun Yang Shirui Feng Xiaohu Yang Hailong Li |
| author_sort | Dawei Feng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Global climate change imposes significant challenges on the ecological environment and human sustainability. Industrial parks, in line with the national climate change mitigation strategy, are key targets for low-carbon revolution within the industrial sector. To predict the carbon emission of industrial parks and formulate the strategic path of emission reduction, this paper amalgamates the benefits of the “top-down” and “bottom-up” prediction methodologies, incorporating the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method and long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model, and integrates the Tapio decoupling theory to predict the carbon emissions of an industrial park cluster of an economic development zone in Yancheng from 2020 to 2035 under baseline (BAS) and low-carbon scenarios (LC1, LC2, and LC3). The findings suggest that, in comparison to the BAS scenario, the carbon emissions in the LC1, LC2, and LC3 scenarios decreased by 30.4%, 38.4%, and 46.2%, respectively, with LC3 being the most suitable pathway for the park’s development. Finally, the paper explores carbon emission sources, and analyzes emission reduction potential and optimization measures of the energy structure, thus providing a reference for the formulation of emission reduction strategies for industrial parks. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T11:30:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-343514edcdd34994958cbd176ff75af6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T11:30:31Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-343514edcdd34994958cbd176ff75af62023-11-10T15:02:17ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732023-10-011621735610.3390/en16217356Carbon Emission Prediction and the Reduction Pathway in Industrial Parks: A Scenario Analysis Based on the Integration of the LEAP Model with LMDI DecompositionDawei Feng0Wenchao Xu1Xinyu Gao2Yun Yang3Shirui Feng4Xiaohu Yang5Hailong Li6China Energy Engineering Group Jiangsu Power Design Institute Co., Ltd., Nanjing 210012, ChinaChina Energy Engineering Group Jiangsu Power Design Institute Co., Ltd., Nanjing 210012, ChinaInstitute of the Building Environment & Sustainability Technology, School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, ChinaChina Energy Engineering Group Jiangsu Power Design Institute Co., Ltd., Nanjing 210012, ChinaChina Energy Engineering Group Jiangsu Power Design Institute Co., Ltd., Nanjing 210012, ChinaInstitute of the Building Environment & Sustainability Technology, School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, ChinaSchool of Business Society and Engineering, Mälardalen University, 721 23 Västerås, SwedenGlobal climate change imposes significant challenges on the ecological environment and human sustainability. Industrial parks, in line with the national climate change mitigation strategy, are key targets for low-carbon revolution within the industrial sector. To predict the carbon emission of industrial parks and formulate the strategic path of emission reduction, this paper amalgamates the benefits of the “top-down” and “bottom-up” prediction methodologies, incorporating the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method and long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model, and integrates the Tapio decoupling theory to predict the carbon emissions of an industrial park cluster of an economic development zone in Yancheng from 2020 to 2035 under baseline (BAS) and low-carbon scenarios (LC1, LC2, and LC3). The findings suggest that, in comparison to the BAS scenario, the carbon emissions in the LC1, LC2, and LC3 scenarios decreased by 30.4%, 38.4%, and 46.2%, respectively, with LC3 being the most suitable pathway for the park’s development. Finally, the paper explores carbon emission sources, and analyzes emission reduction potential and optimization measures of the energy structure, thus providing a reference for the formulation of emission reduction strategies for industrial parks.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/21/7356carbon emissionsindustrial parksscenario analysisLEAP modelLMDI modelTapio decoupling theory |
| spellingShingle | Dawei Feng Wenchao Xu Xinyu Gao Yun Yang Shirui Feng Xiaohu Yang Hailong Li Carbon Emission Prediction and the Reduction Pathway in Industrial Parks: A Scenario Analysis Based on the Integration of the LEAP Model with LMDI Decomposition Energies carbon emissions industrial parks scenario analysis LEAP model LMDI model Tapio decoupling theory |
| title | Carbon Emission Prediction and the Reduction Pathway in Industrial Parks: A Scenario Analysis Based on the Integration of the LEAP Model with LMDI Decomposition |
| title_full | Carbon Emission Prediction and the Reduction Pathway in Industrial Parks: A Scenario Analysis Based on the Integration of the LEAP Model with LMDI Decomposition |
| title_fullStr | Carbon Emission Prediction and the Reduction Pathway in Industrial Parks: A Scenario Analysis Based on the Integration of the LEAP Model with LMDI Decomposition |
| title_full_unstemmed | Carbon Emission Prediction and the Reduction Pathway in Industrial Parks: A Scenario Analysis Based on the Integration of the LEAP Model with LMDI Decomposition |
| title_short | Carbon Emission Prediction and the Reduction Pathway in Industrial Parks: A Scenario Analysis Based on the Integration of the LEAP Model with LMDI Decomposition |
| title_sort | carbon emission prediction and the reduction pathway in industrial parks a scenario analysis based on the integration of the leap model with lmdi decomposition |
| topic | carbon emissions industrial parks scenario analysis LEAP model LMDI model Tapio decoupling theory |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/21/7356 |
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