Differentiating behavioral impact with or without vaccination certification under mass vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on mitigating COVID-19
Abstract As COVID-19 vaccines became widely available worldwide, many countries implemented vaccination certification, also known as a “green pass”, to promote and expedite vaccination on containing virus spread from the latter half of 2021. This policy allowed those vaccinated to have more freedom...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-50421-9 |
| _version_ | 1827388461689077760 |
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| author | Hu Cao Longbing Cao |
| author_facet | Hu Cao Longbing Cao |
| author_sort | Hu Cao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract As COVID-19 vaccines became widely available worldwide, many countries implemented vaccination certification, also known as a “green pass”, to promote and expedite vaccination on containing virus spread from the latter half of 2021. This policy allowed those vaccinated to have more freedom in public activities compared to more constraints on the unvaccinated in addition to existing non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Accordingly, the vaccination certification also induced heterogeneous behaviors of unvaccinated and vaccinated groups. This makes it essential yet challenging to model the behavioral impact of vaccination certification on the two groups and the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 within and between the groups. Very limited quantitative work is available for addressing these purposes. Here we propose an extended epidemiological model SEIQRD $$^2$$ 2 to effectively distinguish the behavioral impact of vaccination certification on unvaccinated and vaccinated groups through incorporating two contrastive transmission chains. SEIQRD $$^2$$ 2 also quantifies the impact of the green pass policy. With the resurgence of COVID-19 in Greece, Austria, and Israel in 2021, our simulation results indicate that their implementation of vaccination certification brought about more than a 14-fold decrease in the total number of infections and deaths as compared to a scenario with no such a policy. Additionally, a green pass policy may offer a reasonable practical solution to strike the balance between public health and individual’s freedom during the pandemic. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T16:19:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-346734254bda40b2a22bf00ca8cfd12a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T16:19:12Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-346734254bda40b2a22bf00ca8cfd12a2024-01-07T12:26:22ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-01-0114111410.1038/s41598-023-50421-9Differentiating behavioral impact with or without vaccination certification under mass vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on mitigating COVID-19Hu Cao0Longbing Cao1School of Computing, Macquarie UniversitySchool of Computing, Macquarie UniversityAbstract As COVID-19 vaccines became widely available worldwide, many countries implemented vaccination certification, also known as a “green pass”, to promote and expedite vaccination on containing virus spread from the latter half of 2021. This policy allowed those vaccinated to have more freedom in public activities compared to more constraints on the unvaccinated in addition to existing non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Accordingly, the vaccination certification also induced heterogeneous behaviors of unvaccinated and vaccinated groups. This makes it essential yet challenging to model the behavioral impact of vaccination certification on the two groups and the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 within and between the groups. Very limited quantitative work is available for addressing these purposes. Here we propose an extended epidemiological model SEIQRD $$^2$$ 2 to effectively distinguish the behavioral impact of vaccination certification on unvaccinated and vaccinated groups through incorporating two contrastive transmission chains. SEIQRD $$^2$$ 2 also quantifies the impact of the green pass policy. With the resurgence of COVID-19 in Greece, Austria, and Israel in 2021, our simulation results indicate that their implementation of vaccination certification brought about more than a 14-fold decrease in the total number of infections and deaths as compared to a scenario with no such a policy. Additionally, a green pass policy may offer a reasonable practical solution to strike the balance between public health and individual’s freedom during the pandemic.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-50421-9 |
| spellingShingle | Hu Cao Longbing Cao Differentiating behavioral impact with or without vaccination certification under mass vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on mitigating COVID-19 Scientific Reports |
| title | Differentiating behavioral impact with or without vaccination certification under mass vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on mitigating COVID-19 |
| title_full | Differentiating behavioral impact with or without vaccination certification under mass vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on mitigating COVID-19 |
| title_fullStr | Differentiating behavioral impact with or without vaccination certification under mass vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on mitigating COVID-19 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Differentiating behavioral impact with or without vaccination certification under mass vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on mitigating COVID-19 |
| title_short | Differentiating behavioral impact with or without vaccination certification under mass vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on mitigating COVID-19 |
| title_sort | differentiating behavioral impact with or without vaccination certification under mass vaccination and non pharmaceutical interventions on mitigating covid 19 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-50421-9 |
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