Toward Consistent Observational Constraints in Climate Predictions and Projections
Observations facilitate model evaluation and provide constraints that are relevant to future predictions and projections. Constraints for uninitialized projections are generally based on model performance in simulating climatology and climate change. For initialized predictions, skill scores over th...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2021-06-01
|
| Series: | Frontiers in Climate |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2021.678109/full |
| _version_ | 1818741426975932416 |
|---|---|
| author | Gabriele C. Hegerl Andrew P. Ballinger Ben B. B. Booth Leonard F. Borchert Lukas Brunner Markus G. Donat Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Glen R. Harris Jason Lowe Rashed Mahmood Juliette Mignot James M. Murphy Didier Swingedouw Antje Weisheimer |
| author_facet | Gabriele C. Hegerl Andrew P. Ballinger Ben B. B. Booth Leonard F. Borchert Lukas Brunner Markus G. Donat Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Glen R. Harris Jason Lowe Rashed Mahmood Juliette Mignot James M. Murphy Didier Swingedouw Antje Weisheimer |
| author_sort | Gabriele C. Hegerl |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Observations facilitate model evaluation and provide constraints that are relevant to future predictions and projections. Constraints for uninitialized projections are generally based on model performance in simulating climatology and climate change. For initialized predictions, skill scores over the hindcast period provide insight into the relative performance of models, and the value of initialization as compared to projections. Predictions and projections combined can, in principle, provide seamless decadal to multi-decadal climate information. For that, though, the role of observations in skill estimates and constraints needs to be understood in order to use both consistently across the prediction and projection time horizons. This paper discusses the challenges in doing so, illustrated by examples of state-of-the-art methods for predicting and projecting changes in European climate. It discusses constraints across prediction and projection methods, their interpretation, and the metrics that drive them such as process accuracy, accurate trends or high signal-to-noise ratio. We also discuss the potential to combine constraints to arrive at more reliable climate prediction systems from years to decades. To illustrate constraints on projections, we discuss their use in the UK's climate prediction system UKCP18, the case of model performance weights obtained from the Climate model Weighting by Independence and Performance (ClimWIP) method, and the estimated magnitude of the forced signal in observations from detection and attribution. For initialized predictions, skill scores are used to evaluate which models perform well, what might contribute to this performance, and how skill may vary over time. Skill estimates also vary with different phases of climate variability and climatic conditions, and are influenced by the presence of external forcing. This complicates the systematic use of observational constraints. Furthermore, we illustrate that sub-selecting simulations from large ensembles based on reproduction of the observed evolution of climate variations is a good testbed for combining projections and predictions. Finally, the methods described in this paper potentially add value to projections and predictions for users, but must be used with caution. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-18T01:56:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-347b314436f74c3a97a7a4d3c5da68da |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2624-9553 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-18T01:56:27Z |
| publishDate | 2021-06-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Climate |
| spelling | doaj.art-347b314436f74c3a97a7a4d3c5da68da2022-12-21T21:24:53ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Climate2624-95532021-06-01310.3389/fclim.2021.678109678109Toward Consistent Observational Constraints in Climate Predictions and ProjectionsGabriele C. Hegerl0Andrew P. Ballinger1Ben B. B. Booth2Leonard F. Borchert3Lukas Brunner4Markus G. Donat5Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes6Glen R. Harris7Jason Lowe8Rashed Mahmood9Juliette Mignot10James M. Murphy11Didier Swingedouw12Antje Weisheimer13School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United KingdomSchool of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United KingdomMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United KingdomSorbonne Universités (SU/CNRS/IRD/MNHN), LOCEAN Laboratory, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, FranceInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, SwitzerlandBarcelona Supercomputing Center (Centro Nacional de Supercomputación BSC-CNS), Barcelona, SpainBarcelona Supercomputing Center (Centro Nacional de Supercomputación BSC-CNS), Barcelona, SpainMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United KingdomMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United KingdomBarcelona Supercomputing Center (Centro Nacional de Supercomputación BSC-CNS), Barcelona, SpainSorbonne Universités (SU/CNRS/IRD/MNHN), LOCEAN Laboratory, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, FranceMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United KingdomEPOC, Université de Bordeaux, Pessac, FranceAtmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United KingdomObservations facilitate model evaluation and provide constraints that are relevant to future predictions and projections. Constraints for uninitialized projections are generally based on model performance in simulating climatology and climate change. For initialized predictions, skill scores over the hindcast period provide insight into the relative performance of models, and the value of initialization as compared to projections. Predictions and projections combined can, in principle, provide seamless decadal to multi-decadal climate information. For that, though, the role of observations in skill estimates and constraints needs to be understood in order to use both consistently across the prediction and projection time horizons. This paper discusses the challenges in doing so, illustrated by examples of state-of-the-art methods for predicting and projecting changes in European climate. It discusses constraints across prediction and projection methods, their interpretation, and the metrics that drive them such as process accuracy, accurate trends or high signal-to-noise ratio. We also discuss the potential to combine constraints to arrive at more reliable climate prediction systems from years to decades. To illustrate constraints on projections, we discuss their use in the UK's climate prediction system UKCP18, the case of model performance weights obtained from the Climate model Weighting by Independence and Performance (ClimWIP) method, and the estimated magnitude of the forced signal in observations from detection and attribution. For initialized predictions, skill scores are used to evaluate which models perform well, what might contribute to this performance, and how skill may vary over time. Skill estimates also vary with different phases of climate variability and climatic conditions, and are influenced by the presence of external forcing. This complicates the systematic use of observational constraints. Furthermore, we illustrate that sub-selecting simulations from large ensembles based on reproduction of the observed evolution of climate variations is a good testbed for combining projections and predictions. Finally, the methods described in this paper potentially add value to projections and predictions for users, but must be used with caution.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2021.678109/fullclimate changeclimate predictionsfuture projectionsobservational constraintsmodel evaluationclimate modeling |
| spellingShingle | Gabriele C. Hegerl Andrew P. Ballinger Ben B. B. Booth Leonard F. Borchert Lukas Brunner Markus G. Donat Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Glen R. Harris Jason Lowe Rashed Mahmood Juliette Mignot James M. Murphy Didier Swingedouw Antje Weisheimer Toward Consistent Observational Constraints in Climate Predictions and Projections Frontiers in Climate climate change climate predictions future projections observational constraints model evaluation climate modeling |
| title | Toward Consistent Observational Constraints in Climate Predictions and Projections |
| title_full | Toward Consistent Observational Constraints in Climate Predictions and Projections |
| title_fullStr | Toward Consistent Observational Constraints in Climate Predictions and Projections |
| title_full_unstemmed | Toward Consistent Observational Constraints in Climate Predictions and Projections |
| title_short | Toward Consistent Observational Constraints in Climate Predictions and Projections |
| title_sort | toward consistent observational constraints in climate predictions and projections |
| topic | climate change climate predictions future projections observational constraints model evaluation climate modeling |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2021.678109/full |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gabrielechegerl towardconsistentobservationalconstraintsinclimatepredictionsandprojections AT andrewpballinger towardconsistentobservationalconstraintsinclimatepredictionsandprojections AT benbbbooth towardconsistentobservationalconstraintsinclimatepredictionsandprojections AT leonardfborchert towardconsistentobservationalconstraintsinclimatepredictionsandprojections AT lukasbrunner towardconsistentobservationalconstraintsinclimatepredictionsandprojections AT markusgdonat towardconsistentobservationalconstraintsinclimatepredictionsandprojections AT franciscojdoblasreyes towardconsistentobservationalconstraintsinclimatepredictionsandprojections AT glenrharris towardconsistentobservationalconstraintsinclimatepredictionsandprojections AT jasonlowe towardconsistentobservationalconstraintsinclimatepredictionsandprojections AT rashedmahmood towardconsistentobservationalconstraintsinclimatepredictionsandprojections AT juliettemignot towardconsistentobservationalconstraintsinclimatepredictionsandprojections AT jamesmmurphy towardconsistentobservationalconstraintsinclimatepredictionsandprojections AT didierswingedouw towardconsistentobservationalconstraintsinclimatepredictionsandprojections AT antjeweisheimer towardconsistentobservationalconstraintsinclimatepredictionsandprojections |