Suitability of Habitats in Nepal for <i>Dactylorhiza hatagirea</i> Now and under Predicted Future Changes in Climate
<i>Dactylorhiza hatagirea</i> is a terrestrial orchid listed in Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) and classified as threatened by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). It is endemic to the Hindu-Kus...
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MDPI AG
2021-03-01
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| author | Bikram Shrestha Spyros Tsiftsis Deep Jyoti Chapagain Chhatra Khadka Prakash Bhattarai Neelima Kayastha Shrestha Marta Alicja Kolanowska Pavel Kindlmann |
| author_facet | Bikram Shrestha Spyros Tsiftsis Deep Jyoti Chapagain Chhatra Khadka Prakash Bhattarai Neelima Kayastha Shrestha Marta Alicja Kolanowska Pavel Kindlmann |
| author_sort | Bikram Shrestha |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <i>Dactylorhiza hatagirea</i> is a terrestrial orchid listed in Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) and classified as threatened by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). It is endemic to the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region, distributed from Pakistan to China. The main threat to its existence is climate change and the associated change in the distribution of its suitable habitats to higher altitudes due to increasing temperature. It is therefore necessary to determine the habitats that are suitable for its survival and their expected distribution after the predicted changes in climate. To do this, we use Maxent modelling of the data for its 208 locations. We predict its distribution in 2050 and 2070 using four climate change models and two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. This revealed severe losses of suitable habitat in Nepal, in which, under the worst scenario, there will be a 71–81% reduction the number of suitable locations for <i>D. hatagirea</i> by 2050 and 95–98% by 2070. Under the most favorable scenario, this reduction will be 65–85% by 2070. The intermediate greenhouse gas concentration trajectory surprisingly would result in a greater reduction by 2070 than the worst-case scenario. Our results provide important guidelines that local authorities interested in conserving this species could use to select areas that need to be protected now and in the future. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T06:02:05Z |
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| id | doaj.art-347c8db3aa784bf5aff0c5201d3cf5d2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2223-7747 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T06:02:05Z |
| publishDate | 2021-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Plants |
| spelling | doaj.art-347c8db3aa784bf5aff0c5201d3cf5d22023-12-03T12:08:14ZengMDPI AGPlants2223-77472021-03-0110346710.3390/plants10030467Suitability of Habitats in Nepal for <i>Dactylorhiza hatagirea</i> Now and under Predicted Future Changes in ClimateBikram Shrestha0Spyros Tsiftsis1Deep Jyoti Chapagain2Chhatra Khadka3Prakash Bhattarai4Neelima Kayastha Shrestha5Marta Alicja Kolanowska6Pavel Kindlmann7Department of Biodiversity Research, Global Change Research Institute CAS, Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech RepublicDepartment of Forest and Natural Environment Sciences, International Hellenic University, GR-66100 Drama, GreeceCentral Department of Botany, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur 44618, NepalChitwan National Park, Department of National Parks and Wildlife Conservation, Government of Nepal Ministry of Forests and Environment, Kathmandu 44600, NepalCentral Department of Botany, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur 44618, NepalNatural Product Chemistry, School of Health and Allied Sciences, Pokhara University, Pokhara 33700, NepalDepartment of Biodiversity Research, Global Change Research Institute CAS, Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech RepublicDepartment of Biodiversity Research, Global Change Research Institute CAS, Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic<i>Dactylorhiza hatagirea</i> is a terrestrial orchid listed in Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) and classified as threatened by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). It is endemic to the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region, distributed from Pakistan to China. The main threat to its existence is climate change and the associated change in the distribution of its suitable habitats to higher altitudes due to increasing temperature. It is therefore necessary to determine the habitats that are suitable for its survival and their expected distribution after the predicted changes in climate. To do this, we use Maxent modelling of the data for its 208 locations. We predict its distribution in 2050 and 2070 using four climate change models and two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. This revealed severe losses of suitable habitat in Nepal, in which, under the worst scenario, there will be a 71–81% reduction the number of suitable locations for <i>D. hatagirea</i> by 2050 and 95–98% by 2070. Under the most favorable scenario, this reduction will be 65–85% by 2070. The intermediate greenhouse gas concentration trajectory surprisingly would result in a greater reduction by 2070 than the worst-case scenario. Our results provide important guidelines that local authorities interested in conserving this species could use to select areas that need to be protected now and in the future.https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/10/3/467<i>Dactylorhiza hatagirea</i>medicinal plantHimalayaNepalclimate changeOrchidaceae |
| spellingShingle | Bikram Shrestha Spyros Tsiftsis Deep Jyoti Chapagain Chhatra Khadka Prakash Bhattarai Neelima Kayastha Shrestha Marta Alicja Kolanowska Pavel Kindlmann Suitability of Habitats in Nepal for <i>Dactylorhiza hatagirea</i> Now and under Predicted Future Changes in Climate Plants <i>Dactylorhiza hatagirea</i> medicinal plant Himalaya Nepal climate change Orchidaceae |
| title | Suitability of Habitats in Nepal for <i>Dactylorhiza hatagirea</i> Now and under Predicted Future Changes in Climate |
| title_full | Suitability of Habitats in Nepal for <i>Dactylorhiza hatagirea</i> Now and under Predicted Future Changes in Climate |
| title_fullStr | Suitability of Habitats in Nepal for <i>Dactylorhiza hatagirea</i> Now and under Predicted Future Changes in Climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Suitability of Habitats in Nepal for <i>Dactylorhiza hatagirea</i> Now and under Predicted Future Changes in Climate |
| title_short | Suitability of Habitats in Nepal for <i>Dactylorhiza hatagirea</i> Now and under Predicted Future Changes in Climate |
| title_sort | suitability of habitats in nepal for i dactylorhiza hatagirea i now and under predicted future changes in climate |
| topic | <i>Dactylorhiza hatagirea</i> medicinal plant Himalaya Nepal climate change Orchidaceae |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/10/3/467 |
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