Carbon emission reduction effect of China’s final demand structure change from 2013 to 2020: a scenario-based analysis
This study employs scenario analysis to measure the carbon emissions reduction potential of the final demand structure changes in China from 2013 to 2020. The results indicate that under the business as usual (BAU) scenario (i.e. in which China’s final demand structure, energy structure and technica...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2019-07-01
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| Series: | Carbon Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17583004.2019.1620036 |
| _version_ | 1797678412453642240 |
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| author | Mingjun Deng Shihu Zhong Guocheng Xiang |
| author_facet | Mingjun Deng Shihu Zhong Guocheng Xiang |
| author_sort | Mingjun Deng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study employs scenario analysis to measure the carbon emissions reduction potential of the final demand structure changes in China from 2013 to 2020. The results indicate that under the business as usual (BAU) scenario (i.e. in which China’s final demand structure, energy structure and technical level in 2020 are the same as those in 2012), China’s gross domestic product of 2020 calculated by 2005 constant price is 6,427,658,783×10,000 yuan and China’s total carbon emissions will reach 1,531,692.29×10,000 tons, with its carbon emission intensity standing at 2.3686 t/10,000 yuan (it is only 25.57% lower than in 2005). Furthermore, under the specific final demand product structure (when “government consumption”, “export consumption”, “residents’ consumption + capital formation” accounts for 12%, 18% and 70%of final demand, respectively), China’s total carbon emissions in 2020 will be reduced by between 167,595.33×10,000 and 204,142.45×10,000 tons compared to the BAU scenario, and carbon emission intensity nationwide will be reduced by 33.71-35.49% compared with 2005. Finally, based on the assumptions and conclusions, this study puts forward some suggestions to realize the China’s carbon emission reduction commitments. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T22:59:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-34ab90de977e49d994a9e01b0369a049 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1758-3004 1758-3012 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T22:59:24Z |
| publishDate | 2019-07-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Carbon Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-34ab90de977e49d994a9e01b0369a0492023-09-21T15:09:05ZengTaylor & Francis GroupCarbon Management1758-30041758-30122019-07-0110438740410.1080/17583004.2019.16200361620036Carbon emission reduction effect of China’s final demand structure change from 2013 to 2020: a scenario-based analysisMingjun Deng0Shihu Zhong1Guocheng Xiang2Hunan University of Science and TechnologyThe School of Public Economics and Administration, Shanghai University of Finance and EconomicsSchool of Economics and Trade, Hunan University of CommerceThis study employs scenario analysis to measure the carbon emissions reduction potential of the final demand structure changes in China from 2013 to 2020. The results indicate that under the business as usual (BAU) scenario (i.e. in which China’s final demand structure, energy structure and technical level in 2020 are the same as those in 2012), China’s gross domestic product of 2020 calculated by 2005 constant price is 6,427,658,783×10,000 yuan and China’s total carbon emissions will reach 1,531,692.29×10,000 tons, with its carbon emission intensity standing at 2.3686 t/10,000 yuan (it is only 25.57% lower than in 2005). Furthermore, under the specific final demand product structure (when “government consumption”, “export consumption”, “residents’ consumption + capital formation” accounts for 12%, 18% and 70%of final demand, respectively), China’s total carbon emissions in 2020 will be reduced by between 167,595.33×10,000 and 204,142.45×10,000 tons compared to the BAU scenario, and carbon emission intensity nationwide will be reduced by 33.71-35.49% compared with 2005. Finally, based on the assumptions and conclusions, this study puts forward some suggestions to realize the China’s carbon emission reduction commitments.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17583004.2019.1620036carbon emission intensitycarbon emissions reductionfinal demand structurescenario analysis |
| spellingShingle | Mingjun Deng Shihu Zhong Guocheng Xiang Carbon emission reduction effect of China’s final demand structure change from 2013 to 2020: a scenario-based analysis Carbon Management carbon emission intensity carbon emissions reduction final demand structure scenario analysis |
| title | Carbon emission reduction effect of China’s final demand structure change from 2013 to 2020: a scenario-based analysis |
| title_full | Carbon emission reduction effect of China’s final demand structure change from 2013 to 2020: a scenario-based analysis |
| title_fullStr | Carbon emission reduction effect of China’s final demand structure change from 2013 to 2020: a scenario-based analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Carbon emission reduction effect of China’s final demand structure change from 2013 to 2020: a scenario-based analysis |
| title_short | Carbon emission reduction effect of China’s final demand structure change from 2013 to 2020: a scenario-based analysis |
| title_sort | carbon emission reduction effect of china s final demand structure change from 2013 to 2020 a scenario based analysis |
| topic | carbon emission intensity carbon emissions reduction final demand structure scenario analysis |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17583004.2019.1620036 |
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