Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone st...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2018-02-01
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| Series: | Earth System Dynamics |
| Online Access: | https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/187/2018/esd-9-187-2018.pdf |
| Summary: | The United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific
community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global
warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average
temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics
for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct
numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in
similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low
warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and
more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is
decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the
effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of
greenhouse gas forcing changes. |
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| ISSN: | 2190-4979 2190-4987 |