SARS-CoV-2 incidence monitoring and statistical estimation of the basic and time-varying reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic in 45 sub-Saharan African countries
Abstract The world battled to defeat a novel coronavirus 2019 (SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19), a respiratory illness that is transmitted from person to person through contacts with droplets from infected persons. Despite efforts to disseminate preventable messages and adoption of mitigation strategies by g...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
BMC
2024-02-01
|
| Series: | BMC Public Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-18184-8 |
| _version_ | 1797272885232926720 |
|---|---|
| author | Michael Safo Oduro Seth Arhin-Donkor Louis Asiedu Damazo T. Kadengye Samuel Iddi |
| author_facet | Michael Safo Oduro Seth Arhin-Donkor Louis Asiedu Damazo T. Kadengye Samuel Iddi |
| author_sort | Michael Safo Oduro |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The world battled to defeat a novel coronavirus 2019 (SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19), a respiratory illness that is transmitted from person to person through contacts with droplets from infected persons. Despite efforts to disseminate preventable messages and adoption of mitigation strategies by governments and the World Health Organization (WHO), transmission spread globally. An accurate assessment of the transmissibility of the coronavirus remained a public health priority for many countries across the world to fight this pandemic, especially at the early onset. In this paper, we estimated the transmission potential of COVID-19 across 45 countries in sub-Saharan Africa using three approaches, namely, $$R_{0}$$ R 0 based on (i) an exponential growth model (ii) maximum likelihood (ML) estimation and (iii) a time-varying basic reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic. Using data from March 14, 2020, to May 10, 2020, sub-Saharan African countries were still grappling with COVID-19 at that point in the pandemic. The region’s basic reproduction number ( $$R_{0}$$ R 0 ) was 1.89 (95% CI: 1.767 to 2.026) using the growth model and 1.513 (95% CI: 1.491 to 1.535) with the maximum likelihood method, indicating that, on average, infected individuals transmitted the virus to less than two secondary persons. Several countries, including Sudan ( $$R_{0}$$ R 0 : 2.03), Ghana ( $$R_{0}$$ R 0 : 1.87), and Somalia ( $$R_{0}$$ R 0 : 1.85), exhibited high transmission rates. These findings highlighted the need for continued vigilance and the implementation of effective control measures to combat the pandemic in the region. It is anticipated that the findings in this study would not only function as a historical record of reproduction numbers during the COVID-19 pandemic in African countries, but can serve as a blueprint for addressing future pandemics of a similar nature. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T14:35:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3514c26f2fae4c56b8d2f7b703c55b8a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T14:35:42Z |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-3514c26f2fae4c56b8d2f7b703c55b8a2024-03-05T20:39:00ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582024-02-0124111410.1186/s12889-024-18184-8SARS-CoV-2 incidence monitoring and statistical estimation of the basic and time-varying reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic in 45 sub-Saharan African countriesMichael Safo Oduro0Seth Arhin-Donkor1Louis Asiedu2Damazo T. Kadengye3Samuel Iddi4Pfizer Research & Development, PSSM Data Sciences, Pfizer, IncMarket Finance Analysis - Sr - Prd - Regional, Humana Inc.Department of Statistics and Actuarial Sciences, University of GhanaData Synergy and Evaluation, African Population and Health Research CenterDepartment of Statistics and Actuarial Sciences, University of GhanaAbstract The world battled to defeat a novel coronavirus 2019 (SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19), a respiratory illness that is transmitted from person to person through contacts with droplets from infected persons. Despite efforts to disseminate preventable messages and adoption of mitigation strategies by governments and the World Health Organization (WHO), transmission spread globally. An accurate assessment of the transmissibility of the coronavirus remained a public health priority for many countries across the world to fight this pandemic, especially at the early onset. In this paper, we estimated the transmission potential of COVID-19 across 45 countries in sub-Saharan Africa using three approaches, namely, $$R_{0}$$ R 0 based on (i) an exponential growth model (ii) maximum likelihood (ML) estimation and (iii) a time-varying basic reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic. Using data from March 14, 2020, to May 10, 2020, sub-Saharan African countries were still grappling with COVID-19 at that point in the pandemic. The region’s basic reproduction number ( $$R_{0}$$ R 0 ) was 1.89 (95% CI: 1.767 to 2.026) using the growth model and 1.513 (95% CI: 1.491 to 1.535) with the maximum likelihood method, indicating that, on average, infected individuals transmitted the virus to less than two secondary persons. Several countries, including Sudan ( $$R_{0}$$ R 0 : 2.03), Ghana ( $$R_{0}$$ R 0 : 1.87), and Somalia ( $$R_{0}$$ R 0 : 1.85), exhibited high transmission rates. These findings highlighted the need for continued vigilance and the implementation of effective control measures to combat the pandemic in the region. It is anticipated that the findings in this study would not only function as a historical record of reproduction numbers during the COVID-19 pandemic in African countries, but can serve as a blueprint for addressing future pandemics of a similar nature.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-18184-8COVID-19, Infectious disease, Basic reproduction number, Sub-Saharan AfricaTransmission |
| spellingShingle | Michael Safo Oduro Seth Arhin-Donkor Louis Asiedu Damazo T. Kadengye Samuel Iddi SARS-CoV-2 incidence monitoring and statistical estimation of the basic and time-varying reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic in 45 sub-Saharan African countries BMC Public Health COVID-19, Infectious disease, Basic reproduction number, Sub-Saharan Africa Transmission |
| title | SARS-CoV-2 incidence monitoring and statistical estimation of the basic and time-varying reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic in 45 sub-Saharan African countries |
| title_full | SARS-CoV-2 incidence monitoring and statistical estimation of the basic and time-varying reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic in 45 sub-Saharan African countries |
| title_fullStr | SARS-CoV-2 incidence monitoring and statistical estimation of the basic and time-varying reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic in 45 sub-Saharan African countries |
| title_full_unstemmed | SARS-CoV-2 incidence monitoring and statistical estimation of the basic and time-varying reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic in 45 sub-Saharan African countries |
| title_short | SARS-CoV-2 incidence monitoring and statistical estimation of the basic and time-varying reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic in 45 sub-Saharan African countries |
| title_sort | sars cov 2 incidence monitoring and statistical estimation of the basic and time varying reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic in 45 sub saharan african countries |
| topic | COVID-19, Infectious disease, Basic reproduction number, Sub-Saharan Africa Transmission |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-18184-8 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT michaelsafooduro sarscov2incidencemonitoringandstatisticalestimationofthebasicandtimevaryingreproductionnumberattheearlyonsetofthepandemicin45subsaharanafricancountries AT setharhindonkor sarscov2incidencemonitoringandstatisticalestimationofthebasicandtimevaryingreproductionnumberattheearlyonsetofthepandemicin45subsaharanafricancountries AT louisasiedu sarscov2incidencemonitoringandstatisticalestimationofthebasicandtimevaryingreproductionnumberattheearlyonsetofthepandemicin45subsaharanafricancountries AT damazotkadengye sarscov2incidencemonitoringandstatisticalestimationofthebasicandtimevaryingreproductionnumberattheearlyonsetofthepandemicin45subsaharanafricancountries AT samueliddi sarscov2incidencemonitoringandstatisticalestimationofthebasicandtimevaryingreproductionnumberattheearlyonsetofthepandemicin45subsaharanafricancountries |