Statistical bounds on how induced seismicity stops
Abstract Earthquakes caused by human activities receive scrutiny due to the risks and hazards they pose. Seismicity that occurs after the causative anthropogenic operation stops has been particularly problematic—both because of high-profile cases of damage caused by this trailing seismicity and due...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2022-01-01
|
| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-05216-9 |
| _version_ | 1819349660792258560 |
|---|---|
| author | Ryan Schultz William L. Ellsworth Gregory C. Beroza |
| author_facet | Ryan Schultz William L. Ellsworth Gregory C. Beroza |
| author_sort | Ryan Schultz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Earthquakes caused by human activities receive scrutiny due to the risks and hazards they pose. Seismicity that occurs after the causative anthropogenic operation stops has been particularly problematic—both because of high-profile cases of damage caused by this trailing seismicity and due to the loss of control for risk management. With this motivation, we undertake a statistical examination of how induced seismicity stops. We borrow the concept of Båth’s law from tectonic aftershock sequences. Båth’s law anticipates the difference between magnitudes in two subsets of seismicity as dependent on their population count ratio. We test this concept for its applicability to induced seismicity, including ~ 80 cases of earthquakes caused by hydraulic fracturing, enhanced geothermal systems, and other fluid-injections with clear operational end points. We find that induced seismicity obeys Båth’s law: both in terms of the magnitude-count-ratio relationship and the power law distribution of residuals. Furthermore, the distribution of count ratios is skewed and heavy-tailed, with most earthquakes occurring during stimulation/injection. We discuss potential models to improve the characterization of these count ratios and propose a Seismogenic Fault Injection Test to measure their parameters in situ. We conclude that Båth’s law quantifies the occurrence of earthquake magnitudes trailing anthropogenic operations. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-24T19:04:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3516bf026293467aade0fcc6ad193bdd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-24T19:04:04Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-3516bf026293467aade0fcc6ad193bdd2022-12-21T16:43:08ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-01-0112111110.1038/s41598-022-05216-9Statistical bounds on how induced seismicity stopsRyan Schultz0William L. Ellsworth1Gregory C. Beroza2Department of Geophysics, Stanford UniversityDepartment of Geophysics, Stanford UniversityDepartment of Geophysics, Stanford UniversityAbstract Earthquakes caused by human activities receive scrutiny due to the risks and hazards they pose. Seismicity that occurs after the causative anthropogenic operation stops has been particularly problematic—both because of high-profile cases of damage caused by this trailing seismicity and due to the loss of control for risk management. With this motivation, we undertake a statistical examination of how induced seismicity stops. We borrow the concept of Båth’s law from tectonic aftershock sequences. Båth’s law anticipates the difference between magnitudes in two subsets of seismicity as dependent on their population count ratio. We test this concept for its applicability to induced seismicity, including ~ 80 cases of earthquakes caused by hydraulic fracturing, enhanced geothermal systems, and other fluid-injections with clear operational end points. We find that induced seismicity obeys Båth’s law: both in terms of the magnitude-count-ratio relationship and the power law distribution of residuals. Furthermore, the distribution of count ratios is skewed and heavy-tailed, with most earthquakes occurring during stimulation/injection. We discuss potential models to improve the characterization of these count ratios and propose a Seismogenic Fault Injection Test to measure their parameters in situ. We conclude that Båth’s law quantifies the occurrence of earthquake magnitudes trailing anthropogenic operations.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-05216-9 |
| spellingShingle | Ryan Schultz William L. Ellsworth Gregory C. Beroza Statistical bounds on how induced seismicity stops Scientific Reports |
| title | Statistical bounds on how induced seismicity stops |
| title_full | Statistical bounds on how induced seismicity stops |
| title_fullStr | Statistical bounds on how induced seismicity stops |
| title_full_unstemmed | Statistical bounds on how induced seismicity stops |
| title_short | Statistical bounds on how induced seismicity stops |
| title_sort | statistical bounds on how induced seismicity stops |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-05216-9 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ryanschultz statisticalboundsonhowinducedseismicitystops AT williamlellsworth statisticalboundsonhowinducedseismicitystops AT gregorycberoza statisticalboundsonhowinducedseismicitystops |