Forecasting technique using time sequence: model penentuan volume produksi Sanjai di UKM Rina Payakumbuh
<div><p class="1eAbstract-text"><em>Forecasting is essential for factories to gain competitive ad-vantages. Forecasting is estimates of values at certain specific future times. Forecasting helps in reducing inventory and to schedule customers’ orders. Accurate sales forec...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
LPPM Universitas Ibn Khaldun Bogor
2018-12-01
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| Series: | Jurnal Manajemen |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://ejournal.uika-bogor.ac.id/index.php/manajemen/article/view/1567 |
| _version_ | 1818115167708250112 |
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| author | Winny Alna Marlina Susiana Susiana Erizal N Faisal Ali Ahmad |
| author_facet | Winny Alna Marlina Susiana Susiana Erizal N Faisal Ali Ahmad |
| author_sort | Winny Alna Marlina |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <div><p class="1eAbstract-text"><em>Forecasting is essential for factories to gain competitive ad-vantages. Forecasting is estimates of values at certain specific future times. Forecasting helps in reducing inventory and to schedule customers’ orders. Accurate sales forecasting is very helpful in planning of plant procurement and for cutting the cost. Sanjai Rina on Payakumbuh is a small business who sell traditional food with-out using forecasting method. In this case inventory of traditional food was affected to out of stock or over stocked. In this paper, forecasting methods using time series such linear method, exponential smoothing, etc. Forecasting based on historical data then the suggestion forecasting model will be implemented to this business. Using standard estimation error (SEE) to estimate the error of fore-casting. The result show that exponential methods were more accurate concrete to other. With exponential methods, Sanjai demand for next period can be estimated on ward become more effective and efficient.</em></p><p class="1eAbstract-text">Peramalan sangat penting bagi pabrik untuk mendapatkan keunggulan kompetitif. Peramalan adalah perkiraan nilai pada waktu mendatang tertentu. Peramalan membantu dalam mengurangi persediaan dan untuk menjadwalkan pesanan pelanggan. Perkiraan penjualan yang akurat sangat membantu dalam perencanaan pengadaan pabrik dan untuk memotong biaya. Sanjai Rina di Payakumbuh adalah usaha kecil yang menjual makanan tradisional tanpa menggunakan metode peramalan. Dalam hal ini persediaan makanan tradisional dipengaruhi kehabisan stok atau kelebihan persediaan. Dalam tulisan ini, metode peramalan menggunakan deret waktu seperti metode linear, perataan eksponensial, dll. Peramalan berdasarkan data historis maka model peramalan saran akan diterapkan pada bisnis ini. Menggunakan <em>standard error estimasi</em> (SEE) untuk memperkirakan kesalahan <em>forecasting</em>. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa metode eksponensial lebih konkret tingkat ke yang lain. Dengan metode eksponensial, permintaan Sanjai untuk periode selanjutnya dapat diperkirakan lingkungan menjadi lebih efektif dan efisien.</p></div> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T04:02:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-351acb60b0ac46868d317fb7668215cb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2301-4628 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T04:02:19Z |
| publishDate | 2018-12-01 |
| publisher | LPPM Universitas Ibn Khaldun Bogor |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Jurnal Manajemen |
| spelling | doaj.art-351acb60b0ac46868d317fb7668215cb2022-12-22T01:21:36ZengLPPM Universitas Ibn Khaldun BogorJurnal Manajemen2301-46282018-12-019218719610.32832/jm-uika.v9i2.15671147Forecasting technique using time sequence: model penentuan volume produksi Sanjai di UKM Rina PayakumbuhWinny Alna Marlina0Susiana Susiana1Erizal N2Faisal Ali Ahmad3Universitas AndalasUniversitas AndalasUniversitas AndalasUniversitas Andalas<div><p class="1eAbstract-text"><em>Forecasting is essential for factories to gain competitive ad-vantages. Forecasting is estimates of values at certain specific future times. Forecasting helps in reducing inventory and to schedule customers’ orders. Accurate sales forecasting is very helpful in planning of plant procurement and for cutting the cost. Sanjai Rina on Payakumbuh is a small business who sell traditional food with-out using forecasting method. In this case inventory of traditional food was affected to out of stock or over stocked. In this paper, forecasting methods using time series such linear method, exponential smoothing, etc. Forecasting based on historical data then the suggestion forecasting model will be implemented to this business. Using standard estimation error (SEE) to estimate the error of fore-casting. The result show that exponential methods were more accurate concrete to other. With exponential methods, Sanjai demand for next period can be estimated on ward become more effective and efficient.</em></p><p class="1eAbstract-text">Peramalan sangat penting bagi pabrik untuk mendapatkan keunggulan kompetitif. Peramalan adalah perkiraan nilai pada waktu mendatang tertentu. Peramalan membantu dalam mengurangi persediaan dan untuk menjadwalkan pesanan pelanggan. Perkiraan penjualan yang akurat sangat membantu dalam perencanaan pengadaan pabrik dan untuk memotong biaya. Sanjai Rina di Payakumbuh adalah usaha kecil yang menjual makanan tradisional tanpa menggunakan metode peramalan. Dalam hal ini persediaan makanan tradisional dipengaruhi kehabisan stok atau kelebihan persediaan. Dalam tulisan ini, metode peramalan menggunakan deret waktu seperti metode linear, perataan eksponensial, dll. Peramalan berdasarkan data historis maka model peramalan saran akan diterapkan pada bisnis ini. Menggunakan <em>standard error estimasi</em> (SEE) untuk memperkirakan kesalahan <em>forecasting</em>. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa metode eksponensial lebih konkret tingkat ke yang lain. Dengan metode eksponensial, permintaan Sanjai untuk periode selanjutnya dapat diperkirakan lingkungan menjadi lebih efektif dan efisien.</p></div>http://ejournal.uika-bogor.ac.id/index.php/manajemen/article/view/1567Sales ForecastingSanjai DemandStandard estimation errorTime Series |
| spellingShingle | Winny Alna Marlina Susiana Susiana Erizal N Faisal Ali Ahmad Forecasting technique using time sequence: model penentuan volume produksi Sanjai di UKM Rina Payakumbuh Jurnal Manajemen Sales Forecasting Sanjai Demand Standard estimation error Time Series |
| title | Forecasting technique using time sequence: model penentuan volume produksi Sanjai di UKM Rina Payakumbuh |
| title_full | Forecasting technique using time sequence: model penentuan volume produksi Sanjai di UKM Rina Payakumbuh |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting technique using time sequence: model penentuan volume produksi Sanjai di UKM Rina Payakumbuh |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting technique using time sequence: model penentuan volume produksi Sanjai di UKM Rina Payakumbuh |
| title_short | Forecasting technique using time sequence: model penentuan volume produksi Sanjai di UKM Rina Payakumbuh |
| title_sort | forecasting technique using time sequence model penentuan volume produksi sanjai di ukm rina payakumbuh |
| topic | Sales Forecasting Sanjai Demand Standard estimation error Time Series |
| url | http://ejournal.uika-bogor.ac.id/index.php/manajemen/article/view/1567 |
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