Analyzing the Correlations and the Statistical Distribution of Moderate to Large Earthquakes Interevent Times in Greece
Seismic temporal properties constitute a fundamental component in developing probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence in a specific area. Earthquake occurrence is neither periodic nor completely random but often accrues into bursts in both short- and long-term time scales, and involves a compl...
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MDPI AG
2022-07-01
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| author | Christos Kourouklas George Tsaklidis Eleftheria Papadimitriou Vasileios Karakostas |
| author_facet | Christos Kourouklas George Tsaklidis Eleftheria Papadimitriou Vasileios Karakostas |
| author_sort | Christos Kourouklas |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Seismic temporal properties constitute a fundamental component in developing probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence in a specific area. Earthquake occurrence is neither periodic nor completely random but often accrues into bursts in both short- and long-term time scales, and involves a complex summation of triggered and independent events (<i>ΔT</i>). This behavior underlines the impact of the correlations on many potential applications such as the stochastic point process for the earthquake interevent times. In this respect, we intend firstly to determine the appropriate magnitude thresholds, <i>M<sub>thr</sub></i>, indicating the temporal crossover between correlated and statistically independent earthquakes in each 1 of the 10 distinctive sub-areas of the Aegean region. The second goal is the investigation of the statistical distribution that optimally fits the interevent times’ data for earthquakes with <i>M</i><inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mo>≥</mo></semantics></math></inline-formula><i>M<sub>thr</sub></i> after evaluating the Gamma, Weibull, Lognormal and Exponential distributions performance. Results concerning the correlations analysis evidenced that the temporal crossover of the earthquake interevent time data ranges from <i>M<sub>thr</sub></i><inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mo>≥</mo></semantics></math></inline-formula> 4.7 up to <i>M<sub>thr</sub></i><inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mo>≥</mo></semantics></math></inline-formula> 5.1 among the 10 sub-areas. The distribution fitting and comparison reveals that the Gamma distribution outperforms the other three distributions for all the data sets. This finding indicates a burst or clustering behavior in the earthquake interevent times, in which each earthquake occurrence depends upon only the occurrence time of the last one and not from the full seismic history. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T03:44:14Z |
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| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T03:44:14Z |
| publishDate | 2022-07-01 |
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| spelling | doaj.art-3543d4a6375142d1ade9dda2985057bb2023-12-03T14:36:00ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172022-07-011214704110.3390/app12147041Analyzing the Correlations and the Statistical Distribution of Moderate to Large Earthquakes Interevent Times in GreeceChristos Kourouklas0George Tsaklidis1Eleftheria Papadimitriou2Vasileios Karakostas3Geophysics Departments, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 541 24 Thessaloniki, GreeceStatistics and Operational Research Department, School of Mathematics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 541 24 Thessaloniki, GreeceGeophysics Departments, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 541 24 Thessaloniki, GreeceGeophysics Departments, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 541 24 Thessaloniki, GreeceSeismic temporal properties constitute a fundamental component in developing probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence in a specific area. Earthquake occurrence is neither periodic nor completely random but often accrues into bursts in both short- and long-term time scales, and involves a complex summation of triggered and independent events (<i>ΔT</i>). This behavior underlines the impact of the correlations on many potential applications such as the stochastic point process for the earthquake interevent times. In this respect, we intend firstly to determine the appropriate magnitude thresholds, <i>M<sub>thr</sub></i>, indicating the temporal crossover between correlated and statistically independent earthquakes in each 1 of the 10 distinctive sub-areas of the Aegean region. The second goal is the investigation of the statistical distribution that optimally fits the interevent times’ data for earthquakes with <i>M</i><inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mo>≥</mo></semantics></math></inline-formula><i>M<sub>thr</sub></i> after evaluating the Gamma, Weibull, Lognormal and Exponential distributions performance. Results concerning the correlations analysis evidenced that the temporal crossover of the earthquake interevent time data ranges from <i>M<sub>thr</sub></i><inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mo>≥</mo></semantics></math></inline-formula> 4.7 up to <i>M<sub>thr</sub></i><inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mo>≥</mo></semantics></math></inline-formula> 5.1 among the 10 sub-areas. The distribution fitting and comparison reveals that the Gamma distribution outperforms the other three distributions for all the data sets. This finding indicates a burst or clustering behavior in the earthquake interevent times, in which each earthquake occurrence depends upon only the occurrence time of the last one and not from the full seismic history.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/12/14/7041earthquake interevent timesGreek seismicitytemporal correlationsstatistical distributions |
| spellingShingle | Christos Kourouklas George Tsaklidis Eleftheria Papadimitriou Vasileios Karakostas Analyzing the Correlations and the Statistical Distribution of Moderate to Large Earthquakes Interevent Times in Greece Applied Sciences earthquake interevent times Greek seismicity temporal correlations statistical distributions |
| title | Analyzing the Correlations and the Statistical Distribution of Moderate to Large Earthquakes Interevent Times in Greece |
| title_full | Analyzing the Correlations and the Statistical Distribution of Moderate to Large Earthquakes Interevent Times in Greece |
| title_fullStr | Analyzing the Correlations and the Statistical Distribution of Moderate to Large Earthquakes Interevent Times in Greece |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analyzing the Correlations and the Statistical Distribution of Moderate to Large Earthquakes Interevent Times in Greece |
| title_short | Analyzing the Correlations and the Statistical Distribution of Moderate to Large Earthquakes Interevent Times in Greece |
| title_sort | analyzing the correlations and the statistical distribution of moderate to large earthquakes interevent times in greece |
| topic | earthquake interevent times Greek seismicity temporal correlations statistical distributions |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/12/14/7041 |
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