Prediction Models for Prognosis of Femoral Neck–Fracture Patients 6 Months after Total Hip Arthroplasty
Xiaofeng Zheng,1,* Cong Xiao,1,* Zhuocheng Xie,2 Lijuan Liu,1 Yinhua Chen1 1Department of Orthopedics, Third Hospital of Mianyang Sichuan Mental Health Center, Mianyang, Sichuan, 621000, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Orthopedics, Sichuan Science City Hospital, Mianyang,...
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Dove Medical Press
2022-04-01
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| Series: | International Journal of General Medicine |
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| Online Access: | https://www.dovepress.com/prediction-models-for-prognosis-of-femoral-neckfracture-patients-6-mon-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-IJGM |
| _version_ | 1818115856162357248 |
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| author | Zheng X Xiao C Xie Z Liu L Chen Y |
| author_facet | Zheng X Xiao C Xie Z Liu L Chen Y |
| author_sort | Zheng X |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Xiaofeng Zheng,1,* Cong Xiao,1,* Zhuocheng Xie,2 Lijuan Liu,1 Yinhua Chen1 1Department of Orthopedics, Third Hospital of Mianyang Sichuan Mental Health Center, Mianyang, Sichuan, 621000, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Orthopedics, Sichuan Science City Hospital, Mianyang, Sichuan, 621000, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Yinhua Chen, Department of Orthopedics, Third Hospital of Mianyang Sichuan Mental Health Center, 190 East Jiannan Road, Youxian, Mianyang, Sichuan, 621000, People’s Republic of China, Tel +86-139-9014-7729, Email yhcdoc@outlook.comPurpose: To establish prediction models for 6-month prognosis in femoral neck–fracture patients receiving total hip arthroplasty (THA).Patients and Methods: In total, 182 computed tomography image pairs from 85 patients were collected and divided into a training set (n=127) and testing set (n=55). Least absolute shrinkage–selection operator regression was used for selecting optimal predictors. A random-forest algorithm was used to establish the prediction models, which were evaluated for accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and area under the curve (AUC).Results: The best model in this study was constructed based on demographic data, preoperative laboratory indicators, and three preoperative radiomic features. In the random-forest model, activated partial thromboplastin time, a preoperative radiomic feature (maximum diameter), and fibrinogen were important variables correlating with patient outcomes. The AUC, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and accuracy in the training set were 0.986 (95% CI 0.971– 1), 0.925 (95% CI 0.862– 0.988), 0.983 (95% CI 0.951– 1.016), 0.984 (95% CI 0.953– 1.014), 0.922 (95% CI 0.856– 0.988), and 0.953 (95% CI 0.916– 0.990), respectively. The AUC, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and accuracy in the testing set were 0.949 (95% CI 0.885– 1), 0.767 (95% CI 0.615– 0.918), 1 (95% CI 1– 1), 1 (95% CI 1– 1), 0.781 (95% CI 0.638– 0.924), and 0.873 (95% CI 0.785– 0.961), respectively.Conclusion: The model based on demographic, preoperative clinical, and preoperative radiomic data showed the best predictive ability for 6-month prognosis in the femoral neck–fracture patients receiving THA.Keywords: prediction model, total hip arthroplasty, computed tomography, prognosis, femoral neck fracture |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T04:13:16Z |
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| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T04:13:16Z |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
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| series | International Journal of General Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-355a3d16d1624176b85988b2f64b5b7e2022-12-22T01:21:20ZengDove Medical PressInternational Journal of General Medicine1178-70742022-04-01Volume 154339435674697Prediction Models for Prognosis of Femoral Neck–Fracture Patients 6 Months after Total Hip ArthroplastyZheng XXiao CXie ZLiu LChen YXiaofeng Zheng,1,* Cong Xiao,1,* Zhuocheng Xie,2 Lijuan Liu,1 Yinhua Chen1 1Department of Orthopedics, Third Hospital of Mianyang Sichuan Mental Health Center, Mianyang, Sichuan, 621000, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Orthopedics, Sichuan Science City Hospital, Mianyang, Sichuan, 621000, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Yinhua Chen, Department of Orthopedics, Third Hospital of Mianyang Sichuan Mental Health Center, 190 East Jiannan Road, Youxian, Mianyang, Sichuan, 621000, People’s Republic of China, Tel +86-139-9014-7729, Email yhcdoc@outlook.comPurpose: To establish prediction models for 6-month prognosis in femoral neck–fracture patients receiving total hip arthroplasty (THA).Patients and Methods: In total, 182 computed tomography image pairs from 85 patients were collected and divided into a training set (n=127) and testing set (n=55). Least absolute shrinkage–selection operator regression was used for selecting optimal predictors. A random-forest algorithm was used to establish the prediction models, which were evaluated for accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and area under the curve (AUC).Results: The best model in this study was constructed based on demographic data, preoperative laboratory indicators, and three preoperative radiomic features. In the random-forest model, activated partial thromboplastin time, a preoperative radiomic feature (maximum diameter), and fibrinogen were important variables correlating with patient outcomes. The AUC, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and accuracy in the training set were 0.986 (95% CI 0.971– 1), 0.925 (95% CI 0.862– 0.988), 0.983 (95% CI 0.951– 1.016), 0.984 (95% CI 0.953– 1.014), 0.922 (95% CI 0.856– 0.988), and 0.953 (95% CI 0.916– 0.990), respectively. The AUC, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and accuracy in the testing set were 0.949 (95% CI 0.885– 1), 0.767 (95% CI 0.615– 0.918), 1 (95% CI 1– 1), 1 (95% CI 1– 1), 0.781 (95% CI 0.638– 0.924), and 0.873 (95% CI 0.785– 0.961), respectively.Conclusion: The model based on demographic, preoperative clinical, and preoperative radiomic data showed the best predictive ability for 6-month prognosis in the femoral neck–fracture patients receiving THA.Keywords: prediction model, total hip arthroplasty, computed tomography, prognosis, femoral neck fracturehttps://www.dovepress.com/prediction-models-for-prognosis-of-femoral-neckfracture-patients-6-mon-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-IJGMprediction modeltotal hip arthroplastycomputed tomographyprognosisfemoral neck fracture |
| spellingShingle | Zheng X Xiao C Xie Z Liu L Chen Y Prediction Models for Prognosis of Femoral Neck–Fracture Patients 6 Months after Total Hip Arthroplasty International Journal of General Medicine prediction model total hip arthroplasty computed tomography prognosis femoral neck fracture |
| title | Prediction Models for Prognosis of Femoral Neck–Fracture Patients 6 Months after Total Hip Arthroplasty |
| title_full | Prediction Models for Prognosis of Femoral Neck–Fracture Patients 6 Months after Total Hip Arthroplasty |
| title_fullStr | Prediction Models for Prognosis of Femoral Neck–Fracture Patients 6 Months after Total Hip Arthroplasty |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction Models for Prognosis of Femoral Neck–Fracture Patients 6 Months after Total Hip Arthroplasty |
| title_short | Prediction Models for Prognosis of Femoral Neck–Fracture Patients 6 Months after Total Hip Arthroplasty |
| title_sort | prediction models for prognosis of femoral neck ndash fracture patients 6 months after total hip arthroplasty |
| topic | prediction model total hip arthroplasty computed tomography prognosis femoral neck fracture |
| url | https://www.dovepress.com/prediction-models-for-prognosis-of-femoral-neckfracture-patients-6-mon-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-IJGM |
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