Evaluating core inflation measures in Brazil
This paper evaluates four core inflation indicators used by the Central Bank of Brazil; that is, the exclusion indicator, the exclusion ex2 indicator, the smoothed trimmed mean and the double weight indicator. Econometric time series models were used to assess the unbiasedness, the dynamic adjustmen...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Portuguese |
| Published: |
Universidade de São Paulo
2016-03-01
|
| Series: | Economia Aplicada |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/111677 |
| _version_ | 1819115826607816704 |
|---|---|
| author | Cristiano Santos Ivan Castelar |
| author_facet | Cristiano Santos Ivan Castelar |
| author_sort | Cristiano Santos |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper evaluates four core inflation indicators used by the Central Bank of Brazil; that is, the exclusion indicator, the exclusion ex2 indicator, the smoothed trimmed mean and the double weight indicator. Econometric time series models were used to assess the unbiasedness, the dynamic adjustment, and the predictive ability of core inflation indicators. The results show that only the exclusion ex2 and smoothed trimmed mean were unbiased and they can serve as indicators of dynamic adjustment for in- flation. With respect to forecast ability, one can say that the core inflation indicators used by the Central Bank are not suitable to forecast long-term inflation |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T05:07:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3589a297dbaf4597a7918d826ea1cf64 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1413-8050 1980-5330 |
| language | Portuguese |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T05:07:22Z |
| publishDate | 2016-03-01 |
| publisher | Universidade de São Paulo |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Economia Aplicada |
| spelling | doaj.art-3589a297dbaf4597a7918d826ea1cf642022-12-21T18:38:04ZporUniversidade de São PauloEconomia Aplicada1413-80501980-53302016-03-0120110.11606/1413-8050/ea134823Evaluating core inflation measures in BrazilCristiano SantosIvan CastelarThis paper evaluates four core inflation indicators used by the Central Bank of Brazil; that is, the exclusion indicator, the exclusion ex2 indicator, the smoothed trimmed mean and the double weight indicator. Econometric time series models were used to assess the unbiasedness, the dynamic adjustment, and the predictive ability of core inflation indicators. The results show that only the exclusion ex2 and smoothed trimmed mean were unbiased and they can serve as indicators of dynamic adjustment for in- flation. With respect to forecast ability, one can say that the core inflation indicators used by the Central Bank are not suitable to forecast long-term inflationhttp://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/111677Core inflationMeasuresEvaluationForecasting |
| spellingShingle | Cristiano Santos Ivan Castelar Evaluating core inflation measures in Brazil Economia Aplicada Core inflation Measures Evaluation Forecasting |
| title | Evaluating core inflation measures in Brazil |
| title_full | Evaluating core inflation measures in Brazil |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating core inflation measures in Brazil |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating core inflation measures in Brazil |
| title_short | Evaluating core inflation measures in Brazil |
| title_sort | evaluating core inflation measures in brazil |
| topic | Core inflation Measures Evaluation Forecasting |
| url | http://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/111677 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT cristianosantos evaluatingcoreinflationmeasuresinbrazil AT ivancastelar evaluatingcoreinflationmeasuresinbrazil |