Modeling the potential global distribution of the Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis under climate change
Abstract The Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis is a highly invasive insect pest that causes extensive damage to many of the primary food crops. Considering the recent challenges facing global food production including climate change, knowledge about the invasive potential of this pest...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-44441-8 |
| _version_ | 1797453263272935424 |
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| author | Sara M. ElShahed Zahia K. Mostafa Marwa H. Radwan Eslam M. Hosni |
| author_facet | Sara M. ElShahed Zahia K. Mostafa Marwa H. Radwan Eslam M. Hosni |
| author_sort | Sara M. ElShahed |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis is a highly invasive insect pest that causes extensive damage to many of the primary food crops. Considering the recent challenges facing global food production including climate change, knowledge about the invasive potential of this pest is essential. In this study, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current global spatial distribution of the pest and the future distribution using two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 in 2050 and 2070. High AUC and TSS values indicated model accuracy and high performance. Response curves showed that the optimal temperature for the S. littoralis is between 10 and 28 °C. The pest is currently found in Africa and is widely distributed across the Middle East and throughout Southern Europe. MaxEnt results revealed that the insect will shift towards Northern Europe and the Americas. Further, China was seen to have a suitable climate. We also extrapolated the impact of these results on major producing countries and how this affects trade flow, which help decision makers to take the invasiveness of such destructive pest into their account. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T15:20:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-35aa4a81a31048848fff0a5ae28aabf6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T15:20:18Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-35aa4a81a31048848fff0a5ae28aabf62023-11-26T12:50:44ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222023-10-0113111010.1038/s41598-023-44441-8Modeling the potential global distribution of the Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis under climate changeSara M. ElShahed0Zahia K. Mostafa1Marwa H. Radwan2Eslam M. Hosni3Department of Entomology, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams UniversityDepartment of Entomology, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams UniversityDepartment of Entomology, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams UniversityDepartment of Entomology, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams UniversityAbstract The Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis is a highly invasive insect pest that causes extensive damage to many of the primary food crops. Considering the recent challenges facing global food production including climate change, knowledge about the invasive potential of this pest is essential. In this study, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current global spatial distribution of the pest and the future distribution using two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 in 2050 and 2070. High AUC and TSS values indicated model accuracy and high performance. Response curves showed that the optimal temperature for the S. littoralis is between 10 and 28 °C. The pest is currently found in Africa and is widely distributed across the Middle East and throughout Southern Europe. MaxEnt results revealed that the insect will shift towards Northern Europe and the Americas. Further, China was seen to have a suitable climate. We also extrapolated the impact of these results on major producing countries and how this affects trade flow, which help decision makers to take the invasiveness of such destructive pest into their account.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-44441-8 |
| spellingShingle | Sara M. ElShahed Zahia K. Mostafa Marwa H. Radwan Eslam M. Hosni Modeling the potential global distribution of the Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis under climate change Scientific Reports |
| title | Modeling the potential global distribution of the Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis under climate change |
| title_full | Modeling the potential global distribution of the Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis under climate change |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the potential global distribution of the Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis under climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the potential global distribution of the Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis under climate change |
| title_short | Modeling the potential global distribution of the Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis under climate change |
| title_sort | modeling the potential global distribution of the egyptian cotton leafworm spodoptera littoralis under climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-44441-8 |
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