Evaluating the effects of climate change on groundwater level in the Varamin plain
In this research, a number of paired three-dimensional Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) from CMIP (Climate Model Inter Comparison Project) 5 group with the base period of 1989–2005 have been evaluated and the output of these models was micro-scaled and calibrated by LARS-WG softwa...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IWA Publishing
2021-05-01
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| Series: | Water Supply |
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| Online Access: | http://ws.iwaponline.com/content/21/3/1372 |
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| author | Hamidreza Azizi Hossein Ebrahimi Hossein Mohammad Vali Samani Vida Khaki |
| author_facet | Hamidreza Azizi Hossein Ebrahimi Hossein Mohammad Vali Samani Vida Khaki |
| author_sort | Hamidreza Azizi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this research, a number of paired three-dimensional Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) from CMIP (Climate Model Inter Comparison Project) 5 group with the base period of 1989–2005 have been evaluated and the output of these models was micro-scaled and calibrated by LARS-WG software. The appropriate model was selected to simulate temperature and rainfall data under the emission scenarios of RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the future period of 2020–2050, and then to model the groundwater level of the region, GMS software for both stable and transient states for one water year was calibrated and then was validated by observation data. The results in the future periods showed an increase of 1–1.5 degrees in temperature and an increase in rainfall in the early months of the year to late spring season and a decrease in rainfall in autumn season. Generally, the RCP4.5 scenario showed slightly more annual rainfall increase over the next 30 years compared to the base period than the other two scenarios. The time series investigation of the average of groundwater level shows that the implementation of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively leads to an average monthly increase of 4.2, 4.3 and 4.6 cm of the groundwater level. HIGHLIGHTS
Using the models and scenarios of the fifth IPCC report in Varamin and Tehran plains to study the trend of climate change.;
Using a step-by-step approach to investigate the effect of climate change on groundwater level in the Varamin plain.;
A view of the future of the Varamin plain aquifer under different climate change scenarios for groundwater resources management.; |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-18T04:05:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-35ec515be4e84537b84868f807e0a29c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1606-9749 1607-0798 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-18T04:05:34Z |
| publishDate | 2021-05-01 |
| publisher | IWA Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water Supply |
| spelling | doaj.art-35ec515be4e84537b84868f807e0a29c2022-12-21T21:21:36ZengIWA PublishingWater Supply1606-97491607-07982021-05-012131372138410.2166/ws.2021.007007Evaluating the effects of climate change on groundwater level in the Varamin plainHamidreza Azizi0Hossein Ebrahimi1Hossein Mohammad Vali Samani2Vida Khaki3 Department of Civil engineering, Shahr-e-Qods Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran Department of Civil engineering, Shahr-e-Qods Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran Department of Civil engineering, Shahr-e-Qods Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran Department of Civil engineering, Shahr-e-Qods Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran In this research, a number of paired three-dimensional Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) from CMIP (Climate Model Inter Comparison Project) 5 group with the base period of 1989–2005 have been evaluated and the output of these models was micro-scaled and calibrated by LARS-WG software. The appropriate model was selected to simulate temperature and rainfall data under the emission scenarios of RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the future period of 2020–2050, and then to model the groundwater level of the region, GMS software for both stable and transient states for one water year was calibrated and then was validated by observation data. The results in the future periods showed an increase of 1–1.5 degrees in temperature and an increase in rainfall in the early months of the year to late spring season and a decrease in rainfall in autumn season. Generally, the RCP4.5 scenario showed slightly more annual rainfall increase over the next 30 years compared to the base period than the other two scenarios. The time series investigation of the average of groundwater level shows that the implementation of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively leads to an average monthly increase of 4.2, 4.3 and 4.6 cm of the groundwater level. HIGHLIGHTS Using the models and scenarios of the fifth IPCC report in Varamin and Tehran plains to study the trend of climate change.; Using a step-by-step approach to investigate the effect of climate change on groundwater level in the Varamin plain.; A view of the future of the Varamin plain aquifer under different climate change scenarios for groundwater resources management.;http://ws.iwaponline.com/content/21/3/1372aquifer simulationclimate changegmsgroundwaterlars-wg |
| spellingShingle | Hamidreza Azizi Hossein Ebrahimi Hossein Mohammad Vali Samani Vida Khaki Evaluating the effects of climate change on groundwater level in the Varamin plain Water Supply aquifer simulation climate change gms groundwater lars-wg |
| title | Evaluating the effects of climate change on groundwater level in the Varamin plain |
| title_full | Evaluating the effects of climate change on groundwater level in the Varamin plain |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating the effects of climate change on groundwater level in the Varamin plain |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating the effects of climate change on groundwater level in the Varamin plain |
| title_short | Evaluating the effects of climate change on groundwater level in the Varamin plain |
| title_sort | evaluating the effects of climate change on groundwater level in the varamin plain |
| topic | aquifer simulation climate change gms groundwater lars-wg |
| url | http://ws.iwaponline.com/content/21/3/1372 |
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