Tradeoff between speed and reproductive number in pathogen evolution
The rapid succession of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 emphasizes the need to understand the factors driving pathogen evolution. Here, we investigate a possible tradeoff between the rate of progression of a disease and its reproductive number. Using an SEIR framework, we show that in the exponential gro...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
American Physical Society
2023-04-01
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| Series: | Physical Review Research |
| Online Access: | http://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.5.023003 |
| _version_ | 1797210499071344640 |
|---|---|
| author | Andreas Eilersen Bjarke Frost Nielsen Kim Sneppen |
| author_facet | Andreas Eilersen Bjarke Frost Nielsen Kim Sneppen |
| author_sort | Andreas Eilersen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The rapid succession of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 emphasizes the need to understand the factors driving pathogen evolution. Here, we investigate a possible tradeoff between the rate of progression of a disease and its reproductive number. Using an SEIR framework, we show that in the exponential growth phase of an epidemic, there is an optimal disease duration that balances the advantage of a fast disease progression with that of causing many secondary infections. This result offers one possible explanation for the ever shorter generation times of novel variants of SARS-CoV-2, as it progressed from the original strain to the Alpha, Delta, and, from late 2021 onwards, to several Omicron variant subtypes. In the endemic state, the optimum disappears and longer disease duration becomes advantageous for the pathogen. However, selection pressures depend on context: mitigation strategies such as quarantine of infected individuals may slow down the evolution towards longer-lasting, more infectious variants. This work then suggests that, in the future, the trend towards shorter generation times may reverse, and SARS-CoV-2 may instead evolve towards longer-lasting variants. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T10:11:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-35f68b7133ad4cf885b2658784262421 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2643-1564 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T10:11:34Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | American Physical Society |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Physical Review Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-35f68b7133ad4cf885b26587842624212024-04-12T17:29:50ZengAmerican Physical SocietyPhysical Review Research2643-15642023-04-015202300310.1103/PhysRevResearch.5.023003Tradeoff between speed and reproductive number in pathogen evolutionAndreas EilersenBjarke Frost NielsenKim SneppenThe rapid succession of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 emphasizes the need to understand the factors driving pathogen evolution. Here, we investigate a possible tradeoff between the rate of progression of a disease and its reproductive number. Using an SEIR framework, we show that in the exponential growth phase of an epidemic, there is an optimal disease duration that balances the advantage of a fast disease progression with that of causing many secondary infections. This result offers one possible explanation for the ever shorter generation times of novel variants of SARS-CoV-2, as it progressed from the original strain to the Alpha, Delta, and, from late 2021 onwards, to several Omicron variant subtypes. In the endemic state, the optimum disappears and longer disease duration becomes advantageous for the pathogen. However, selection pressures depend on context: mitigation strategies such as quarantine of infected individuals may slow down the evolution towards longer-lasting, more infectious variants. This work then suggests that, in the future, the trend towards shorter generation times may reverse, and SARS-CoV-2 may instead evolve towards longer-lasting variants.http://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.5.023003 |
| spellingShingle | Andreas Eilersen Bjarke Frost Nielsen Kim Sneppen Tradeoff between speed and reproductive number in pathogen evolution Physical Review Research |
| title | Tradeoff between speed and reproductive number in pathogen evolution |
| title_full | Tradeoff between speed and reproductive number in pathogen evolution |
| title_fullStr | Tradeoff between speed and reproductive number in pathogen evolution |
| title_full_unstemmed | Tradeoff between speed and reproductive number in pathogen evolution |
| title_short | Tradeoff between speed and reproductive number in pathogen evolution |
| title_sort | tradeoff between speed and reproductive number in pathogen evolution |
| url | http://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.5.023003 |
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