Availability Projections of Hydroelectric Power Plants through Monte Carlo Simulation
The present work proposes a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to obtain availability projections for Hydroelectric Power Plants (HPP), based mainly on regulatory aspects involving the Availability Factor (AFA). The main purpose of the simulation is to generate scenarios to obtain statistics for risk anal...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2021-12-01
|
| Series: | Energies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/24/8398 |
| _version_ | 1797505033175040000 |
|---|---|
| author | Marcos Tadeu Barros de Oliveira Patrícia de Sousa Oliveira Silva Elisa Oliveira André Luís Marques Marcato Giovani Santiago Junqueira |
| author_facet | Marcos Tadeu Barros de Oliveira Patrícia de Sousa Oliveira Silva Elisa Oliveira André Luís Marques Marcato Giovani Santiago Junqueira |
| author_sort | Marcos Tadeu Barros de Oliveira |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The present work proposes a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to obtain availability projections for Hydroelectric Power Plants (HPP), based mainly on regulatory aspects involving the Availability Factor (AFA). The main purpose of the simulation is to generate scenarios to obtain statistics for risk analysis and decision-making in relation to the HPP. The proposed methodology consists of two steps, firstly, the optimization of the maintenance schedule of the hydroelectric plant is carried out, in order to allocate the mandatory maintenance in the simulation horizon. Then, for the MCS, scenarios of forced shutdowns of the Generating Units (GU) will be generated, which directly influence the operation and, consequently, the availability of the HPP. The scenarios will be inserted into an operation optimization model, which considers the impact of forced shutdown samples on the MCS. The proposed modeling was applied using real data from the Santo Antônio HPP, which is one of the largest hydroelectric plants in Brazil. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T04:12:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-364a2d74244346b3b66423e8301f7df3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T04:12:54Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-364a2d74244346b3b66423e8301f7df32023-11-23T08:06:44ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732021-12-011424839810.3390/en14248398Availability Projections of Hydroelectric Power Plants through Monte Carlo SimulationMarcos Tadeu Barros de Oliveira0Patrícia de Sousa Oliveira Silva1Elisa Oliveira2André Luís Marques Marcato3Giovani Santiago Junqueira4Electrical Engineering Department, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora 36036-900, BrazilElectrical Engineering Department, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora 36036-900, BrazilElectrical Engineering Department, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora 36036-900, BrazilElectrical Engineering Department, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora 36036-900, BrazilSanto Antônio Energia, Porto Velho 78900-000, BrazilThe present work proposes a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to obtain availability projections for Hydroelectric Power Plants (HPP), based mainly on regulatory aspects involving the Availability Factor (AFA). The main purpose of the simulation is to generate scenarios to obtain statistics for risk analysis and decision-making in relation to the HPP. The proposed methodology consists of two steps, firstly, the optimization of the maintenance schedule of the hydroelectric plant is carried out, in order to allocate the mandatory maintenance in the simulation horizon. Then, for the MCS, scenarios of forced shutdowns of the Generating Units (GU) will be generated, which directly influence the operation and, consequently, the availability of the HPP. The scenarios will be inserted into an operation optimization model, which considers the impact of forced shutdown samples on the MCS. The proposed modeling was applied using real data from the Santo Antônio HPP, which is one of the largest hydroelectric plants in Brazil.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/24/8398risk analysisAvailability Factorforced shutdownoperation optimizationgenerating units |
| spellingShingle | Marcos Tadeu Barros de Oliveira Patrícia de Sousa Oliveira Silva Elisa Oliveira André Luís Marques Marcato Giovani Santiago Junqueira Availability Projections of Hydroelectric Power Plants through Monte Carlo Simulation Energies risk analysis Availability Factor forced shutdown operation optimization generating units |
| title | Availability Projections of Hydroelectric Power Plants through Monte Carlo Simulation |
| title_full | Availability Projections of Hydroelectric Power Plants through Monte Carlo Simulation |
| title_fullStr | Availability Projections of Hydroelectric Power Plants through Monte Carlo Simulation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Availability Projections of Hydroelectric Power Plants through Monte Carlo Simulation |
| title_short | Availability Projections of Hydroelectric Power Plants through Monte Carlo Simulation |
| title_sort | availability projections of hydroelectric power plants through monte carlo simulation |
| topic | risk analysis Availability Factor forced shutdown operation optimization generating units |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/24/8398 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT marcostadeubarrosdeoliveira availabilityprojectionsofhydroelectricpowerplantsthroughmontecarlosimulation AT patriciadesousaoliveirasilva availabilityprojectionsofhydroelectricpowerplantsthroughmontecarlosimulation AT elisaoliveira availabilityprojectionsofhydroelectricpowerplantsthroughmontecarlosimulation AT andreluismarquesmarcato availabilityprojectionsofhydroelectricpowerplantsthroughmontecarlosimulation AT giovanisantiagojunqueira availabilityprojectionsofhydroelectricpowerplantsthroughmontecarlosimulation |