Re-appraisal of the global climatic role of natural forests for improved climate projections and policies
Along with the accumulation of atmospheric greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, the loss of primary forests and other natural ecosystems is a major disruption of the Earth's system and is causing global concern. Quantifying planetary warming from carbon emissions, global climate model...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-07-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Forests and Global Change |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1150191/full |
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| author | Anastassia M. Makarieva Anastassia M. Makarieva Andrei V. Nefiodov Anja Rammig Antonio Donato Nobre |
| author_facet | Anastassia M. Makarieva Anastassia M. Makarieva Andrei V. Nefiodov Anja Rammig Antonio Donato Nobre |
| author_sort | Anastassia M. Makarieva |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Along with the accumulation of atmospheric greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, the loss of primary forests and other natural ecosystems is a major disruption of the Earth's system and is causing global concern. Quantifying planetary warming from carbon emissions, global climate models highlight natural forests' high carbon storage potential supporting conservation policies. However, some model outcomes effectively deprioritize conservation of boreal and temperate forests by suggesting that increased albedo upon deforestation could cool the planet. A potential conflict of global cooling vs. regional forest conservation could harm environmental policies. Here we present theoretical and observational evidence to demonstrate that, compared to the carbon-related warming, modeling skills for assessing climatic impacts of deforestation is low. We argue that estimates for deforestation-induced global cooling result from the models' limited capacity to account for the global effect of cooling from evapotranspiration of intact forests. Specifically, transpiration of trees can change the greenhouse effect via small modifications of the vertical temperature profile. However, due to their convective parameterization (which postulates a certain critical temperature profile), global climate models do not properly capture this effect. This may lead to an underestimation of warming from the loss of forest evapotranspiration in both high and low latitudes. As a result, conclusions about deforestation-induced global cooling are not robust and could result in action that immediately worsened global warming. To avoid deepening the environmental crisis, these conclusions should not inform policies of vegetation cover management, especially as studies from multiple fields are accumulating that better quantify the stabilizing impact of natural ecosystems evolved to maintain environmental homeostasis. Given the critical state and our limited understanding of both climate and ecosystems, an optimal policy with immediate benefits would be a global moratorium on the exploitation of all natural forests. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T22:47:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-3681601a7ab541ec9ec8322fc329157d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2624-893X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T22:47:00Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Forests and Global Change |
| spelling | doaj.art-3681601a7ab541ec9ec8322fc329157d2023-07-21T04:28:52ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Forests and Global Change2624-893X2023-07-01610.3389/ffgc.2023.11501911150191Re-appraisal of the global climatic role of natural forests for improved climate projections and policiesAnastassia M. Makarieva0Anastassia M. Makarieva1Andrei V. Nefiodov2Anja Rammig3Antonio Donato Nobre4Theoretical Physics Division, Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute, St. Petersburg, RussiaInstitute for Advanced Study, Technical University of Munich, Garching, GermanyTheoretical Physics Division, Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute, St. Petersburg, RussiaSchool of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, GermanyCentro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos, São Paulo, BrazilAlong with the accumulation of atmospheric greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, the loss of primary forests and other natural ecosystems is a major disruption of the Earth's system and is causing global concern. Quantifying planetary warming from carbon emissions, global climate models highlight natural forests' high carbon storage potential supporting conservation policies. However, some model outcomes effectively deprioritize conservation of boreal and temperate forests by suggesting that increased albedo upon deforestation could cool the planet. A potential conflict of global cooling vs. regional forest conservation could harm environmental policies. Here we present theoretical and observational evidence to demonstrate that, compared to the carbon-related warming, modeling skills for assessing climatic impacts of deforestation is low. We argue that estimates for deforestation-induced global cooling result from the models' limited capacity to account for the global effect of cooling from evapotranspiration of intact forests. Specifically, transpiration of trees can change the greenhouse effect via small modifications of the vertical temperature profile. However, due to their convective parameterization (which postulates a certain critical temperature profile), global climate models do not properly capture this effect. This may lead to an underestimation of warming from the loss of forest evapotranspiration in both high and low latitudes. As a result, conclusions about deforestation-induced global cooling are not robust and could result in action that immediately worsened global warming. To avoid deepening the environmental crisis, these conclusions should not inform policies of vegetation cover management, especially as studies from multiple fields are accumulating that better quantify the stabilizing impact of natural ecosystems evolved to maintain environmental homeostasis. Given the critical state and our limited understanding of both climate and ecosystems, an optimal policy with immediate benefits would be a global moratorium on the exploitation of all natural forests.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1150191/fullecosystem stabilityclimate stabilityprimary forestsprecipitationevapotranspirationconvective parameterization |
| spellingShingle | Anastassia M. Makarieva Anastassia M. Makarieva Andrei V. Nefiodov Anja Rammig Antonio Donato Nobre Re-appraisal of the global climatic role of natural forests for improved climate projections and policies Frontiers in Forests and Global Change ecosystem stability climate stability primary forests precipitation evapotranspiration convective parameterization |
| title | Re-appraisal of the global climatic role of natural forests for improved climate projections and policies |
| title_full | Re-appraisal of the global climatic role of natural forests for improved climate projections and policies |
| title_fullStr | Re-appraisal of the global climatic role of natural forests for improved climate projections and policies |
| title_full_unstemmed | Re-appraisal of the global climatic role of natural forests for improved climate projections and policies |
| title_short | Re-appraisal of the global climatic role of natural forests for improved climate projections and policies |
| title_sort | re appraisal of the global climatic role of natural forests for improved climate projections and policies |
| topic | ecosystem stability climate stability primary forests precipitation evapotranspiration convective parameterization |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1150191/full |
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