The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change
<p>Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of sea-level rise projections requires analysis of both dimensions of uncertainty. Probabilistic sea-level rise projections evaluate...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Geoscientific Model Development |
| Online Access: | https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/16/7461/2023/gmd-16-7461-2023.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797383512688427008 |
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| author | R. E. Kopp R. E. Kopp G. G. Garner G. G. Garner G. G. Garner T. H. J. Hermans T. H. J. Hermans S. Jha S. Jha S. Jha P. Kumar P. Kumar A. Reedy A. Reedy A. Reedy A. B. A. Slangen M. Turilli M. Turilli T. L. Edwards J. M. Gregory J. M. Gregory G. Koubbe A. Levermann A. Levermann A. Merzky S. Nowicki M. D. Palmer M. D. Palmer C. Smith C. Smith |
| author_facet | R. E. Kopp R. E. Kopp G. G. Garner G. G. Garner G. G. Garner T. H. J. Hermans T. H. J. Hermans S. Jha S. Jha S. Jha P. Kumar P. Kumar A. Reedy A. Reedy A. Reedy A. B. A. Slangen M. Turilli M. Turilli T. L. Edwards J. M. Gregory J. M. Gregory G. Koubbe A. Levermann A. Levermann A. Merzky S. Nowicki M. D. Palmer M. D. Palmer C. Smith C. Smith |
| author_sort | R. E. Kopp |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of sea-level rise projections requires analysis of both dimensions of uncertainty. Probabilistic sea-level rise projections evaluate the quantifiable dimension of uncertainty; comparison of alternative probabilistic methods provides an indication of structural uncertainty. Here we describe the Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS), a modular platform for characterizing different probability distributions for the drivers of sea-level change and their consequences for global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level change. We demonstrate its application by generating seven alternative probability distributions under multiple emissions scenarios for both future global mean sea-level change and future relative and extreme sea-level change at New York City. These distributions, closely aligned with those presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, emphasize the role of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets as drivers of structural uncertainty in sea-level change projections.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T21:21:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-36c82d6f3b9f4766a1f1f6d13a8de97b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1991-959X 1991-9603 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T21:21:05Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geoscientific Model Development |
| spelling | doaj.art-36c82d6f3b9f4766a1f1f6d13a8de97b2023-12-21T09:15:31ZengCopernicus PublicationsGeoscientific Model Development1991-959X1991-96032023-12-01167461748910.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level changeR. E. Kopp0R. E. Kopp1G. G. Garner2G. G. Garner3G. G. Garner4T. H. J. Hermans5T. H. J. Hermans6S. Jha7S. Jha8S. Jha9P. Kumar10P. Kumar11A. Reedy12A. Reedy13A. Reedy14A. B. A. Slangen15M. Turilli16M. Turilli17T. L. Edwards18J. M. Gregory19J. M. Gregory20G. Koubbe21A. Levermann22A. Levermann23A. Merzky24S. Nowicki25M. D. Palmer26M. D. Palmer27C. Smith28C. Smith29Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USARutgers Climate and Energy Institute, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USADepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USARutgers Climate and Energy Institute, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USAcurrent address: Gro Intelligence, New York, NY, USADepartment of Estuarine & Delta Systems, NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Yerseke, the NetherlandsInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Utrecht, the NetherlandsRutgers Climate and Energy Institute, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USADepartment of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USAComputational Science Initiative, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, USADepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USARutgers Climate and Energy Institute, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USADepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USARutgers Climate and Energy Institute, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USADepartment of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USADepartment of Estuarine & Delta Systems, NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Yerseke, the NetherlandsDepartment of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USAComputational Science Initiative, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, USADepartment of Geography, King's College London, London, UKMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKNational Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UKDepartment of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USAPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, GermanyPhysics Institute, Potsdam University, Potsdam, GermanyDepartment of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USADepartment of Geology, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USAMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKSchool of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UKPriestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, UKEnergy, Climate and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria<p>Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of sea-level rise projections requires analysis of both dimensions of uncertainty. Probabilistic sea-level rise projections evaluate the quantifiable dimension of uncertainty; comparison of alternative probabilistic methods provides an indication of structural uncertainty. Here we describe the Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS), a modular platform for characterizing different probability distributions for the drivers of sea-level change and their consequences for global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level change. We demonstrate its application by generating seven alternative probability distributions under multiple emissions scenarios for both future global mean sea-level change and future relative and extreme sea-level change at New York City. These distributions, closely aligned with those presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, emphasize the role of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets as drivers of structural uncertainty in sea-level change projections.</p>https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/16/7461/2023/gmd-16-7461-2023.pdf |
| spellingShingle | R. E. Kopp R. E. Kopp G. G. Garner G. G. Garner G. G. Garner T. H. J. Hermans T. H. J. Hermans S. Jha S. Jha S. Jha P. Kumar P. Kumar A. Reedy A. Reedy A. Reedy A. B. A. Slangen M. Turilli M. Turilli T. L. Edwards J. M. Gregory J. M. Gregory G. Koubbe A. Levermann A. Levermann A. Merzky S. Nowicki M. D. Palmer M. D. Palmer C. Smith C. Smith The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change Geoscientific Model Development |
| title | The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
| title_full | The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
| title_fullStr | The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
| title_short | The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |
| title_sort | framework for assessing changes to sea level facts v1 0 a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global relative and extreme sea level change |
| url | https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/16/7461/2023/gmd-16-7461-2023.pdf |
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