A report on COVID-19 epidemic in Pakistan using SEIR fractional model
Abstract Recently, novel coronavirus is a serious global issue and having a negative impact on the economy of the whole world. Like other countries, it also effected the economy and people of Pakistan. According to the publicly reported data, the first case of novel corona virus in Pakistan was repo...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2020-12-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-79405-9 |
| _version_ | 1818857656832491520 |
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| author | Zubair Ahmad Muhammad Arif Farhad Ali Ilyas Khan Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar |
| author_facet | Zubair Ahmad Muhammad Arif Farhad Ali Ilyas Khan Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar |
| author_sort | Zubair Ahmad |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Recently, novel coronavirus is a serious global issue and having a negative impact on the economy of the whole world. Like other countries, it also effected the economy and people of Pakistan. According to the publicly reported data, the first case of novel corona virus in Pakistan was reported on 27th February 2020. The aim of the present study is to describe the mathematical model and dynamics of COVID-19 in Pakistan. To investigate the spread of coronavirus in Pakistan, we develop the SEIR time fractional model with newly, developed fractional operator of Atangana–Baleanu. We present briefly the analysis of the given model and discuss its applications using world health organization (WHO) reported data for Pakistan. We consider the available infection cases from 19th March 2020, till 31st March 2020 and accordingly, various parameters are fitted or estimated. It is worth noting that we have calculated the basic reproduction number $${\mathfrak{R}}_{0} \approx 2.30748$$ R 0 ≈ 2.30748 which shows that virus is spreading rapidly. Furthermore, stability analysis of the model at disease free equilibrium DFE and endemic equilibriums EE is performed to observe the dynamics and transmission of the model. Finally, the AB fractional model is solved numerically. To show the effect of the various embedded parameters like fractional parameter $$\alpha$$ α on the model, various graphs are plotted. It is worth noting that the base of our investigation, we have predicted the spread of disease for next 200 days. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T08:43:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-36f60246dd374d2eac84ba74797b51b5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T08:43:52Z |
| publishDate | 2020-12-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-36f60246dd374d2eac84ba74797b51b52022-12-21T20:28:51ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222020-12-0110111410.1038/s41598-020-79405-9A report on COVID-19 epidemic in Pakistan using SEIR fractional modelZubair Ahmad0Muhammad Arif1Farhad Ali2Ilyas Khan3Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar4Department of Mathematics, City University of Science and Information TechnologyDepartment of Mathematics, City University of Science and Information TechnologyComputational Analysis Research Group, Ton Duc Thang UniversityDepartment of Mathematics, College of Science Al-Zulfi, Majmaah UniversityDepartment of Mathematics, College of Arts and Science, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz UniversityAbstract Recently, novel coronavirus is a serious global issue and having a negative impact on the economy of the whole world. Like other countries, it also effected the economy and people of Pakistan. According to the publicly reported data, the first case of novel corona virus in Pakistan was reported on 27th February 2020. The aim of the present study is to describe the mathematical model and dynamics of COVID-19 in Pakistan. To investigate the spread of coronavirus in Pakistan, we develop the SEIR time fractional model with newly, developed fractional operator of Atangana–Baleanu. We present briefly the analysis of the given model and discuss its applications using world health organization (WHO) reported data for Pakistan. We consider the available infection cases from 19th March 2020, till 31st March 2020 and accordingly, various parameters are fitted or estimated. It is worth noting that we have calculated the basic reproduction number $${\mathfrak{R}}_{0} \approx 2.30748$$ R 0 ≈ 2.30748 which shows that virus is spreading rapidly. Furthermore, stability analysis of the model at disease free equilibrium DFE and endemic equilibriums EE is performed to observe the dynamics and transmission of the model. Finally, the AB fractional model is solved numerically. To show the effect of the various embedded parameters like fractional parameter $$\alpha$$ α on the model, various graphs are plotted. It is worth noting that the base of our investigation, we have predicted the spread of disease for next 200 days.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-79405-9 |
| spellingShingle | Zubair Ahmad Muhammad Arif Farhad Ali Ilyas Khan Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar A report on COVID-19 epidemic in Pakistan using SEIR fractional model Scientific Reports |
| title | A report on COVID-19 epidemic in Pakistan using SEIR fractional model |
| title_full | A report on COVID-19 epidemic in Pakistan using SEIR fractional model |
| title_fullStr | A report on COVID-19 epidemic in Pakistan using SEIR fractional model |
| title_full_unstemmed | A report on COVID-19 epidemic in Pakistan using SEIR fractional model |
| title_short | A report on COVID-19 epidemic in Pakistan using SEIR fractional model |
| title_sort | report on covid 19 epidemic in pakistan using seir fractional model |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-79405-9 |
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