Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños
Tropical Pacific upwelling-dependent ecosystems are the most productive and variable worldwide, mainly due to the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO can be forecasted seasons ahead thanks to assorted climate precursors (local-Pacific processes, pantropical interactions). However,...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfa4d |
| _version_ | 1797747646058725376 |
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| author | Iñigo Gómara Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca Elsa Mohino Teresa Losada Irene Polo Marta Coll |
| author_facet | Iñigo Gómara Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca Elsa Mohino Teresa Losada Irene Polo Marta Coll |
| author_sort | Iñigo Gómara |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Tropical Pacific upwelling-dependent ecosystems are the most productive and variable worldwide, mainly due to the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO can be forecasted seasons ahead thanks to assorted climate precursors (local-Pacific processes, pantropical interactions). However, due to observational data scarcity, little is known about the importance of these precursors for marine ecosystem prediction. Previous studies based on Earth System Model simulations forced by observed climate have shown that multiyear predictability of tropical Pacific marine primary productivity is possible. With recently released global marine ecosystem simulations forced by historical climate, full examination of tropical Pacific ecosystem predictability is now feasible. By complementing historical fishing records with marine ecosystem model data, we show herein that equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) constitute a valuable predictability source for tropical Pacific fisheries, which can be forecasted over large-scale areas up to three years in advance. A detailed physical-biological mechanism is proposed whereby equatorial Atlantic SSTs influence upwelling of nutrient-rich waters in the tropical Pacific, leading to a bottom-up propagation of the climate-related signal across the marine food web. Our results represent historical and near-future climate conditions and provide a useful springboard for implementing a marine ecosystem prediction system in the tropical Pacific. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:54:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-370d1dceeb4749fc96bf8d6359921373 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:54:32Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-370d1dceeb4749fc96bf8d63599213732023-08-09T14:59:18ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-0116505406610.1088/1748-9326/abfa4dSkillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic NiñosIñigo Gómara0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8721-0307Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5261-7083Elsa Mohino2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4342-6349Teresa Losada3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8430-1745Irene Polo4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6250-6109Marta Coll5https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6235-5868Departamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Universidad Complutense de Madrid , 28040 Madrid, Spain; Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO), UCM-CSIC , 28040 Madrid, SpainDepartamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Universidad Complutense de Madrid , 28040 Madrid, Spain; Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO), UCM-CSIC , 28040 Madrid, SpainDepartamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Universidad Complutense de Madrid , 28040 Madrid, SpainDepartamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Universidad Complutense de Madrid , 28040 Madrid, SpainDepartamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Universidad Complutense de Madrid , 28040 Madrid, SpainInstitut de Ciències del Mar (ICM‐CSIC) , 08003 Barcelona, Spain; Ecopath International Initiative (EII) Research Association , 08003 Barcelona, SpainTropical Pacific upwelling-dependent ecosystems are the most productive and variable worldwide, mainly due to the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO can be forecasted seasons ahead thanks to assorted climate precursors (local-Pacific processes, pantropical interactions). However, due to observational data scarcity, little is known about the importance of these precursors for marine ecosystem prediction. Previous studies based on Earth System Model simulations forced by observed climate have shown that multiyear predictability of tropical Pacific marine primary productivity is possible. With recently released global marine ecosystem simulations forced by historical climate, full examination of tropical Pacific ecosystem predictability is now feasible. By complementing historical fishing records with marine ecosystem model data, we show herein that equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) constitute a valuable predictability source for tropical Pacific fisheries, which can be forecasted over large-scale areas up to three years in advance. A detailed physical-biological mechanism is proposed whereby equatorial Atlantic SSTs influence upwelling of nutrient-rich waters in the tropical Pacific, leading to a bottom-up propagation of the climate-related signal across the marine food web. Our results represent historical and near-future climate conditions and provide a useful springboard for implementing a marine ecosystem prediction system in the tropical Pacific.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfa4dpantropical interactionsENSOAtlantic Niñosmarine ecosystemsFishMIPfisheries prediction |
| spellingShingle | Iñigo Gómara Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca Elsa Mohino Teresa Losada Irene Polo Marta Coll Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños Environmental Research Letters pantropical interactions ENSO Atlantic Niños marine ecosystems FishMIP fisheries prediction |
| title | Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños |
| title_full | Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños |
| title_fullStr | Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños |
| title_full_unstemmed | Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños |
| title_short | Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños |
| title_sort | skillful prediction of tropical pacific fisheries provided by atlantic ninos |
| topic | pantropical interactions ENSO Atlantic Niños marine ecosystems FishMIP fisheries prediction |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfa4d |
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